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1JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Status Briefing to IHSTSeptember 25, 2006
Mark Liptak FAA ANE-110Jack Drake HAI
2JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Status Briefing
Objective: background information and interim status of the JHSAT activity to interested parties
3JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Goal
Provide intervention strategies to the IHST and Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team (JHSIT) that maximize the likelihood of reducing worldwide helicopter accident rates by 80 percent by 2016.
4JHSAT - October 2006
In the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety
1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal
1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards
5.3-2
5JHSAT - October 2006
The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC)
on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction
• FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data
• Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world
5.3-3
6JHSAT - October 2006
In Response• Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) was
created, adopted concepts of Boeings Accident Prevention Strategy (APS)
• APS refined for use with CAST problem set• Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies
initiatives were combined into CAST• CAST supported by Government and Industry
with Worldwide Recognition
IHST initiative will be driven by the sameprocess that produced measurable success in
the part 121 arena
7JHSAT - October 2006
CAST GoalsCAST Goals
Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007
Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, manufacturers, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate
IHST initiative driving for same level of helicopter accident reduction by 2017
8JHSAT - October 2006
So how will this help helicopters?So how will this help helicopters?
• Mature and flexible process adapted for analysis of helicopter accidents
• Utilize helicopter community experts and stakeholders
• Process recognized internationally by industry
and regulators
• Proven track record in reducing hazardous events
• Results tracked by targeted metrics
9JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Team Members
Mark Liptak (FAA ANE) JHSAT co-chair Jack Drake (HAI) JHSAT co-chair Barry Rohm (Rolls Royce) Ray Wall (Bristow)Roy Fox (Bell) Tony Alfalla (Sikorsky) Ed Stockhausen (Airmethods) Joe Syslo (Eurocopter)Laura Iseler (IHST) Sandy Hart (NASA)Clark Davenport (FAA ASW) Matt Rigsby (FAA ASW)Ann Azevedo (FAA Risk consultant) Steve Gleason (Schweizer)Ron Luhmann (Silver State Helicopters) Joan Gregiore (Turbomeca)
The JHSAT team membership represents the cross-section of interests and expertise needed to adequately analyze accident data and recommend safety improvements.
10JHSAT - October 2006
Charter
Final charter developed and agreed to by team, posted on JHSAT web site:
Goal: Provide a prioritized assessment of the most safety critical hazards to commercial, private and military rotorcraft in worldwide operations as derived from selected rotorcraft data sources.
Provide intervention strategies to the IHST and Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team (JHSIT) that maximize the likelihood of reducing worldwide helicopter accident rates by 80 percent by 2016.
Provide a JHSAT report documenting the team’s findings to the IHST by 1Q 2007.
11JHSAT - October 2006
Web Site
The JHSAT has established a web site at http://www.ihst.org/jhsat/jhsat_top.htmId=jhsat, password=helicoptersafe
This is an access controlled site, please limit to only the IHST and those with a need to know.
The JHSAT is using it to post NTSB data, team analysis results, meeting minutes, agendas, action lists, etc.
12JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Process
Modeled after the CAST/JSAT process
Basic tenets:
Engaging stakeholders/experts from the helicopter community
Findings based on real world helicopter accident data
Recommendations ranked by a structured scoring method
JHSAT has successfully modified the basic CAST process for usewith helicopter data while upholding the basic tenets of the process.
13JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Basic Process Flowchart
CharterDevelopment
EstablishTeam
Select Data Set
ReviewNTSB
Docket Data
DevelopEvent
Sequence
IdentifyProblems
(what/why)
Assign StdProblem
Statements
ScoreProblem
Validity &Importance
Identify InterventionStrategies
ScoreInterventionAbility/Usage
Prioritize byOverall
Effectiveness
TechnicalReview
&Expert
Validation
Conflicts? ReportResults
No
Yes
IHST
JHSIT
14JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Dataset Selection
The initial dataset selected for JHSAT analysis is year 2000 NTSBaccidents. This will serve as the basis for the 1Q 07 report out.
The JHSAT will conduct a detailed analysis of these accidents. There are approximately 190 accidents to be analyzed.
This NTSB dataset is nearly fully populated with final narrative causal/factual information. Also, less likely to encounter litigation constraints with this dataset.
Consideration of accident causal factor trends for the last 24 years gives the team high confidence that detailed analysisof year 2000 events will yield high value recommendations that will mitigate long standing trends (see next slides)
Future JHSAT activity will target year 2001, 2002, etc.
15JHSAT - October 2006
24,294 Worldwide Civil Helicopters
Source: Rotor Roster 2006
16JHSAT - October 2006
Worldwide Helicopter Accidents/Year
1980 - 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800A
cc
ide
nts
/ye
ar
US Civil Registry Non-US Civil & Military US Military & USCG (ABC)
17JHSAT - October 2006
24 Years - Little Change
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Aircraft Powerplant Auxilary Equipment Human Performance Environment / Facilities Unknown
24 year look back – Relative stability in helicopter accident causal factors
Final causaldata not yet fullydeveloped
US dataset represents 50% of worldwide fleet
18JHSAT - October 2006
Coordinating JHSAT US, International and Military Sources
The IHST safety targets are worldwide. We must interact effectively with the worldwide community to be able to meet the targeted 80% reduction in accidents.
The JHSAT team is starting to develop contacts and coordinate this activity. Matt Rigsby from FAA-ASW will be acting as the contact point for identifying overseas and military partners.
Any entity that possess large helicopter accident datasets that could be processed by the JHSAT method should be considered.
EASA and Canada moving toward partnering with us in this process.
On-going effort to identify other partners from Asia, South America, Oceania, etc.
19JHSAT - October 2006
IHST Safety InitiativeAnalysis, Implementation and Metrics Management Structure
IHSTExecutive Committee
JHSATLead Group
JHSITLead Group
Canada JHSAT
EASA JHSAT
Canada JHSIT
EASA JHSIT
Region X, Y, Z JHSIT
US/CAN/EASA Consolidated
Recommendations
JHSAT sends recommendations to JHSIT
US/CAN/EASA/X,Y,Z Implementation
Results
JHSAT/JHSIT
cross-talk
Need to maintain a strongcommunication/feedback loopbetween IHST – JHSAT - JHSIT
Process development usingUS NTSB datarepresents 48% ofworldwide fleet
Measure Accident Reductions
Effectiveness
Measure Implementation
Effectiveness
Regions X, Y, Z defined as those pockets of operation not ableto staff a full JHSAT team and are willing to work implementation of US/CAN/EASA findings to benefit their fleets
Others?
20JHSAT - October 2006
US CivilDataset
Selection (1/2 of
helicoptersWorldwide)
JSAT ProcessUnderstanding
Refining
JHSAT Analysis
IdentifyFCAA &MilitaryPartners
Train FCAA &
Military Partners in JHSATProcess
FCAA & Military Partners conductJHSAT
analyses on their
accident data
Expert Review/
Validation
MitigationRecs - Global
MitigationRecs
FCAA & Mil
Coordinating JHSAT US and International Efforts
First SetUS Mitigation
Recs
Mar/Apr 06May/June 06
May-Dec 06Jan 07
1Q 07
1Q 08
TBD 07
TBD 07TBD 06/07
Sept 06
TechReview
Jan 07
IHST
21JHSAT - October 2006
Using Existing Safety Reports
JHSAT is reviewing the recommendations of the following reports:
NASA - U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 Through 1997NASA - Analysis of US Civil Rotorcraft Accidents from 1990 to 1996 and Implications for a Safety Program NASA - ASRS Rotorcraft Incident Study - Draft Data Summary Aviation Safety Reporting SystemNASA - Helicopter Accident Analysis TeamAMPA - A Safety Review and Risk Assessment in Air Medical TransportCRS - Report for Congress - Military Aviation SafetyOGP - Safety Performance of Helicopter Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry - 2000 DataTSB Canada - Lessons Learned from TSB Investigation of Helicopter Accidents (1994 - 2003)Bell Textron - History of Helicopter SafetyOther NTSB and international reports may be considered.
Status: The team has extracted what it believes to be the most important recommendations from the above reports. We are currently drafting narrative statements that give background and context to the recommendations. Our intent is to pass these recommendations to the IHST in November so that the JHSIT will have several well founded general recommendations to work with while the JHSAT completes its accident analysis work.
22JHSAT - October 2006
Please forward questions to Mark Liptak, JHSAT co-chairperson.
This document was prepared in September 2006