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2JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Status
Data Analysis
Engaging with the international community
Offering near term safety recommendations
4JHSAT - October 2006
Data Analysis:
The JHSAT team is currently processing 190 accidents
The accident data has been downloaded from the NTSB (~4000 files)
For each accident the JHSAT performs the following:reconstruct the sequence of eventsidentify what went wrong and why it went wrongassign an appropriate problem statementidentify appropriate corrective action(s)score findings based on validity, importance, ability
and usage
The team has currently completed 90 of 190 accidents
5JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT currently working process areas highlighted in yellow
CharterDevelopment
EstablishTeam
Select Data Set
ReviewNTSB
Docket Data
DevelopEvent
Sequence
IdentifyProblems
(what/why)
Assign StdProblem
Statements
ScoreProblem
Validity &Importance
Identify InterventionStrategies
ScoreInterventionAbility/Usage
Prioritize byOverall
Effectiveness
TechnicalReview
&Expert
Validation
Conflicts? ReportResults
No
Yes
IHST
JHSIT
6JHSAT - October 2006
Data Analysis:
To date the accidents analyzed have covered a wide spectrum of helicopter types and operations. We expect to be able to offer a comprehensive set of safety recommendations based on the analyses to the IHST and JHSIT.
The data has not been ranked by the JHSAT yet. This will be accomplished as a final step prior to review with experts in the affected recommendation areas.
8JHSAT - October 2006
Worldwide Helicopter Accidents/Year
1980 - 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800A
cc
ide
nts
/ye
ar
US Civil Registry Non-US Civil & Military US Military & USCG (ABC)
9JHSAT - October 2006
Engaging with the international community
The preceding slide shows worldwide accident trends for the last 26 years. The criticality of working with the international community to reduce worldwide rates is readily apparent since the US accounts for only 35 to 40% of accidents on an annual basis.
The JHSAT team is developing contacts and coordinating this activity. Matt Rigsby from FAA-ASW will be acting as the contact point for identifying overseas and military partners.
Any entity that possess large helicopter accident datasets that could be processed by the JHSAT method should be considered.
EASA and Canada moving toward partnering with us in this process.
On-going efforts to identify other partners from Asia, South America, Oceania, etc.
10JHSAT - October 2006
Engaging with the international community
A structured approach will be used to manage the analytical and implementation work sponsored by the IHST.
Key attributes:
All recommendations will be data driven
Regional ownership - Data is owned and analyzed by those most familiar with it. Safety recommendations will be implemented by teams most familiar with local needs.
JHSAT and JHSIT lead teams will be responsible for training/coaching regional teams, measuring the results of the safety recommendations and implementation effectiveness.
11JHSAT - October 2006
IHST Safety InitiativeAnalysis, Implementation and Metrics Management Structure
IHSTExecutive Committee
JHSATLead Group
JHSITLead Group
Canada JHSAT
EASA JHSAT
Canada JHSIT
EASA JHSIT
Region X, Y, Z JHSIT
US/CAN/EASA Consolidated
Recommendations
JHSAT sends recommendations to JHSIT
US/CAN/EASA/X,Y,Z Implementation
Results
JHSAT/JHSIT
cross-talk
Need to maintain a strongcommunication/feedback loopbetween IHST – JHSAT - JHSIT
Process development usingUS NTSB datarepresents 48% ofworldwide fleet
Measure Accident Reductions
Effectiveness
Measure Implementation
Effectiveness
Regions X, Y, Z defined as those pockets of operation not ableto staff a full JHSAT team and are willing to work implementation of US/CAN/EASA findings to benefit their fleets
Others?
12JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT Lead Group Analysis of
International Data
Matt Rigsby is JHSAT POC Seeking data rich partners Preliminary discussions with: Canada EASA (CAA-UK, France BEA) Brazil (contacted, no reply) NZ (contacted, no reply) Australia Chile Canadian Military USN Near-term: bring Canada on-line as a test case Consider EASA next Interim Goal: have Canada/EASA present status at the 2007 IHSS Symposium in Montreal Demonstrate that this is an international effort, and it has momentum
JHSIT will also have international partnermanagement responsibilities: custom tailored regional solutions coordinated with JHSAT coordinated with IHST
IHSTOutreach/Marketing
Emerging Fleets
Somen is the IHST POCIdentify emerging/high growth marketsDevelop strategy to: Foster participation Benefit from IHST knowledge baseCandidates: China India CIS?
Engaging with the International Community
JHSIT Lead Group Implementing
Regional Solutions
13JHSAT - October 2006
Potential Barriers:
JHSAT:Variation in dataset quality, definitions, etc, around the world may make use of a standardized JHSAT approach more difficult.
Military data may not be available.
Lack of fleet hours will complicate ability to measure results.
Regional teams may be difficult to staff with sufficient level of expertise representing manufacturers, operators and regulatory interests.
JHSIT:Regional operations and regulations may make some implementation actions difficult.
14JHSAT - October 2006
US CivilDataset
Selection (1/2 of
helicoptersWorldwide)
JSAT ProcessUnderstanding
Refining
JHSAT Analysis
IdentifyFCAA &MilitaryPartners
Train FCAA &
Military Partners in JHSATProcess
FCAA & Military Partners conductJHSAT
analyses on their
accident data
Expert Review/
Validation
MitigationRecs - Global
MitigationRecs
FCAA & Mil
Coordinating JHSAT US and International Efforts
First SetUS Mitigation
Recs
Mar/Apr 06May/June 06
May-Dec 06Jan 07
1Q 07
1Q 08
TBD 07
TBD 07TBD 06/07
Sept 06
TechReview
Jan 07
IHST
JHSAT is now working to bring EASA and Canada into the process
16JHSAT - October 2006
Offering near term safety recommendations
The JHSAT has identified important recommendations from a series of existing helicopter safety reports. (listed on the next slide)
The team is currently drafting narrative statements that give background and context to the recommendations.
These recommendations will be submitted to the IHST in November so that the JHSIT will have several well founded general recommendations to work with.
The JHSAT plan to issue its full set of analytical results by the end of 1Q07.
17JHSAT - October 2006
JHSAT is reviewing the recommendations of the following reports:
NASA - U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 Through 1997NASA - Analysis of US Civil Rotorcraft Accidents from 1990 to 1996 and Implications for a Safety Program NASA - ASRS Rotorcraft Incident Study - Draft Data Summary Aviation Safety Reporting SystemNASA - Helicopter Accident Analysis TeamAMPA - A Safety Review and Risk Assessment in Air Medical TransportCRS - Report for Congress - Military Aviation SafetyOGP - Safety Performance of Helicopter Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry - 2000 DataTSB Canada - Lessons Learned from TSB Investigation of Helicopter Accidents (1994 - 2003)Bell Textron - History of Helicopter SafetyOther NTSB and international reports may be considered.