1

Internet in 2035

Vint Cerf

May 2008

2

Regional Internet Statistics - 2008

Region Internet Population

% penetration

Asia 510.5 Mil. 13.7 %

Europe 348.1 Mil. 43.4 %

North Am. 238.0 Mil. 71.1%

LATAM/C 126.2 Mil. 22.2 %

Mid-East 33.5 Mil. 17.4 %

Oceania 19.2 Mil. 57.1 %

Africa 44.4 Mil. 4.7 %

TOTAL 1,320 Mil. 20.0 %

3

Population Projections

www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf

4

Projections - World Population

5

Population Projections - World

6

Population projections - Europe

7

Population Projection - Asia

8

Projections 2035

Global Warming and oil/water shortages - serious consequences

population demographics - coastal areas flooding

Water shortages - water tankers

Desalinization - side effects from salt??

IT to substitute for transportation? (virtual meetings)

IT to minimize transportation (efficient scheduling)

Energy production/consumption (IT a big consumer)

Nuclear vs Ethanol, Wind, Solar, Geo-thermal

9

Internet Projections - 2035

Internet at age 52 (b. 1983)

World Population - 8.12 Billion

Internet Penetration - 70% (world average)

Note: >100% in developed countries

Device Penetration - 60 Billion (O(10) devices/person)

IPv6 only (IPv4 may lurk in dark corridors)

10

Internet - Global Statistics 2035

(approx. 6 Billion Broadband Terminations plus 10 B mobiles and >12 Billion PCs)

10 Billion Hosts (Wikipedia 2035)

5.7 Billion Users (Wikipedia 2035)

542 Million Hosts

(ISC Jan 2008)

1,320 Million Users(InternetWorldStats.com,

December 30,2007)

11

Information Ecology

•Wired and Wireless Internet Infrastructure

•Online business infrastructure – Intra-/Inter-corporate and government-business transactions

– Cloud Computing (Virtualization and Computational Mobility)

– Collaboration in virtual environments

– Seamless joining of real and virtual environments

• Convergence of digital objects and processes (discovery and rendezvous)

• Statewide (National?) Databases

– INSTEDD anecdote

– Statistical data mining for planning and projections

12

Commercial Ecology - 2035

Population demographics (US aging population, ethnic diversity)

Competition with India, China, Europe

US GDP about 50% or less than Asia?

Production rate of scientists, engineers - 10% or less?

a) What are the REAL numbers?

b) We aren’t going to beat them on the numbers.

13

Physical Infrastructure

Energy and Water ecology

Minimization, re-utilization, local production

Information and Transportation

Trade-offs, Real-Time optimizations

Smart Road Systems (pilotless cars?)

Serious electric trains? (TGV, Shinkansen)

14

Socio-Economic Effects of Internet - 2035

•Internet transports and display print, video, audio media

•Internet group interaction - political actions, polling, marketplaces

•Information Consumers are the Producers – Blogging, YouTube/Google Video, Personal Web Pages, wisdom of crowds

•Innovation at the edge (e.g. wikipedia) - data mining mass information

•Social Networking (Linked in, My Space, Facebook, Orkut…) - Robot representatives

•Gameplaying (Second Life, World of Warcraft…) - holographics

•New Business Models– eBay, Amazon, Dell, Google, Yahoo!,MSN, AOL, iTunes, VOIP…

– Paper publication limited to special editions, online is the norm

15

IPTV

• Streaming and Downloading – iPOD and vPOD behaviors?

• Mixing of all media as IP packets

• Ancillary information access

– Downloaded texts, programs, videos, audio, captions

– Advertising material

• Screen Control (icons, widgets)

• Multiple streams to multiple displays (beauty of packet switching)

• Online interaction while viewing

– Group commentary

– Advertising and product information

16

Mobility and Mobiles - 2035

• 10 Billion Mobiles and counting (85% Internet enabled)

• Text/Web Access

• Payment systems

• Remote control of services and devices

• Innovative interfaces - Note I/O discovery, voice, haptics

• Navigation systems– GPS, Galileo?, Mobile Tower triangulation, Bldg Announcements

• Geo-location based services

17

Internet-enabled Devices

18

Internet-enabled Devices

Programmable – Java, Python, etc.

Examples:

• WebTV, Personal Digital Assistants, Mobiles,Video games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board!

• Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales)

• Automobiles

• Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine: Schrödinger’s wine bottle)

• Internet-enabled socks (clothing)

• Universal Remote Controls

• Sensor Networks

• RFID trackers (luggage, keys, “where’s my stuff?”)

19

Challenges of the Digital Age

•Intellectual property treatment – Digital material is easy to copy and distribute

•Semantic Web

•Complex objects that can only be rendered via computer– 3D interactive objects

– Complex spreadsheets

– Interactive environments

•BIT ROT!– Preserving interpretive programs (Windows 3000 and PPT 1997)

– And the operating systems that run them

– And the hardware that run the operating systems

– For thousands of years!!

20

InterPlaNetary Internet

21

22

23

24

25

Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN)

•Planetary internets

•Interplanetary Gateways

•Interplanetary Long-Haul Architecture (RFC 4838)– Licklider Transport Protocol (LTP)

– Bundle Protocol (RFC 5050)• Delayed Binding of Identifiers• Email-like behavior

•Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols– Tactical Mobile applications

– Civilian Mobile applications

– Deep Impact Testing 2008

– Space Station Testing 2009

– Mars Science Station 2035

– Planetary orbiters

– Atmospheric floaters

– Ground sensor networks

26

•End-to-end information flow across the solar system

•Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability

•IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times

•Integrated communications and navigation services