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1
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
-5 0 5 10 15 20
fX(x)
x
Normal distribution
= 5
X : N (, )
N (5, 2)
x
2
Effect of varying parameters ( & )
fX(x)
x
A
B
C
for C
for B
3
S: N (0,1)
Standard normal distribution
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
fX(x)
x
4
(0) 0.5 (1) 0.8413
(2) 0.97725 ( 1) 1 (1) 0.1587
(4) 1 0.00003167 0.9999683
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
21
21( )
2
a sa e ds
a
Page 380 Table of Standard Normal Probability
7
1(0.5) 0
1(0.8413) 1 1(0.9) 1.282 1(0.1587) 1
1
(1 0.1587)
(0.8413) 1
= ?
Given probability (a) = p, a = -1(p)
8
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
-5 0 5 10 15 20
fX(x)
xa b
( )b a
P a x b
( )b
P x b
( ) 1a
P a x
9
Example: retaining wall
x
F
Suppose X = N(200,30)
(230 260)
260 200 230 200
30 30
(2) (1)
0.977 0.841 0.136
P x
10
If the retaining wall is designed such that the reliability against sliding is 99%,
How much friction should be provided?
1
( ) 99%
200 2000.99
30 30
200(0.99)
30
P x F
F
F
1200 30 (0.99) 270F
2.33
11
Lognormal distribution
Parameter
0 2 4 6 8
fX(x)
x
12
21ln
2
2
2 22
ln 1 ln 1
Parameters
for 0.3,
ln mx
13
Probability for Log-normal distribution
ln( )
aP X a
If a is xm, then is not needed.
ln ln( )
b aP a X b
14
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
P 3.19 Project completion time T
P (T<40) = 0.9
400.9
= 30 1100.9 1.28
= 7.81
a)Given information:
T is normal
P (T < 50) 50 30
7.81
(2.56)
0.9948
b) P ( T < 0 )0 30
7.81
( 3.84)
0.000062
Normal distribution ok? Yes
16
c) If assume Log-normal distribution for T, with same value of and .
= 7.81/30 = .26
2 21 1ln ln 30 (0.26) 3.367
2 2
P (T<50) ln50 3.367
0.26
(2.09)
0.9817
17
P 3.20
Construction job that has a fleet of similar equipments
In order to insure satisfactory operation, you require at least 90% equipments available.
18
Each equipment has a breakdown time
Lognormal with mean 6 months, c.o.v. 25%
. . . 0.25c o v 21
2ln 6 (0.25) 1.76
T: time until break down
19
0) Suppose scheduled time period for maintenance is 5 months
P (an equipment will break down before 5 months)
= P (T<5)
ln5 ln5 1.76
0.25
( 0.6)
1 (0.6)
1 0.726 0.274
Expect 27% of equipment will not be operative ahead of the next scheduled maintenance.
20
a) - Suppose need at least 90% equipment available at any time
- What should be the scheduled maintenance period to?
P (breakdown of an equipment)
= P (T < to) 0.1
ln 1.760.1
0.25ot
1ln 1.760.1 1.28
0.25ot
to = 4.22 months
21
b) If to = 4.22 months
P (will go for at least another month | has survived 4.22 months) = ?
= P (T > 5.22 | T > 4.22)
( 5.22 4.22)
( 4.22)
P T T
P T
( 5.22)
( 4.22)
P T
P T
ln5.22 1.760.250.9
= 0.749
= 0.6
22
Other distributions
Exponential distribution Triangular distribution Uniform distribution Rayleigh distribution
p.224-225: table of common distribution
23
Exponential distribution
x
fX(x)
( ) xXf x e x 0
1( )E X
21
( )Var X
100%X
24
Example of application
Quake magnitude
Gap between cars
Time of toll booth operative
25
Example:
Given: mean earthquake magnitude
= 5 in Richter scale
1( ) 5E X
0.2
P (next quake > 7) 0.2
7
0.2 7 1.4
0.2
| 0.25
x
x
e dx
e e
26
Shifted exponential distribution
Lower bound not necessarily 0
( )( ) x aXf x e x a
27
Beta distribution1 1
1
( ) ( ) ( )( )
( ) ( ) ( )
q r
X q r
q r x a b xf x
q r b a
a x b
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12x
fX(x)q = 2.0 ; r = 6.0
a = 2.0 b = 12
probability
28
0
1
2
3
4
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Standard beta PDF
q = 1.0 ; r = 4.0
q = r = 3.0 q = 4.0 ; r = 2.0
q = r = 1.0
x
fX(x)
(a = 0, b = 1)
29
Bernoulli sequence and binomial distribution
Consider the bulldozer example If probability of operation = p and start
out with 3 bulldozers, what is the probability of a given number of bulldozers operative?
30
GGG
GGB
GBG
BGG
BBG
BGB
GBB
BBB
Let X = no. of bulldozers operative
X = 3
X = 2
X = 1
X = 0
ppp
3pp(1-p)
3p(1-p)(1-p)
(1-p)3
3
( )
3(1 )x x
P X x
p px
3!
!(3 )!x x
binomial coefficients
31
Suppose start out with 10 bulldozers
P (8 operative) = P( X=8 )
8 210(1 )
8p p
If p = 0.9, then P (8 operative)
8 2
8 2
10!(0.9) (0.1)
8!2!10 9
(0.9) (0.1) 0.1942
32
Bernoulli sequence
Discrete repeated trials 2 outcomes for each trial s.i. between trials Probability of occurrence same for all
trials
SF
p = probability of a success
33
SF
x = number of successp = probability of a success
P ( x success in n trials)
= P ( X = x | n, p) (1 )
( 0,1,2,..., )
x n xnp p
x
x n
Binomial distribution
34
Examples
Number of flooded years
Number of failed specimens
Number of polluted days
35
Example:
Given: probability of flood each year = 0.1
Over a 5 year period
1 45( 1) 0.1 (0.9) 0.328
1P X
P ( at most 1 flood year) = P (X =0) + P(X=1)
= 0.95 + 0.328
= 0.919
36
P (flooding during 5 years)
= P (X 1)
= 1 – P( X = 0)
= 1- 0.95
= 0.41
37
E (no. of success ) = E(X) = np
E (X) = 10 0.1 = 1
Over 10 years, expected number of years with floods
For binomial distribution
38
P (first flood in 3rd year) = ?
1 2 3( )
0.9 0.9 0.1
0.081
P F F F
39
P (T = t) = (1-p)t-1p t=1, 2, …
T = time to first successIn general,
geometric distribution
2
1
( ) ( ) 2(1 ) 3(1 ) ...i ii
E T t P t p p p p p
2
2
[1 2(1 ) 3(1 ) ...]
1 1
p p p
pp p
Return period
Geometric distribution
40
P (2nd flood in 3rd year)
20.9 0.1 0.1
1
= P (1 flood in first 2 years) P (flood in 3rd year)
41
In general
P (kth flood in tth year)
= P (k-1 floods in t-1 year) P (flood in tth year)
1(1 ) , 1,...
1k t ktp p t k k
k
negative binomial distribution
42
Review of Bernoulli sequence
No. of success binomial distribution
Time to first success geometric
distribution
E(T) =1/p = return period
43
Significance of return period in design
Suppose 中銀 expected to last 100 years and if it is designed against 100 year-wind of 68.6 m/s
P (exceedence of 68.6 m/s each year) = 1/100 = 0.01
P (exceedence of 68.6 m/s in 100th year) = 0.01
Service life
design return period
44
P (1st exceedence of 68.6 m/s in 100th year)
= 0.99990.01 = 0.0037
P (no exceedence of 68.6 m/s within a service life of 100 years)
= 0.99100 = 0.366
P (no exceedence of 68.6 m/s within the return period of design) = 0.366
45
If it is designed against a 200 year-wind of 70.6 m/s
P (exceedence of 70.6 m/s each year) = 1/200 = 0.005
P (1st exceedence of 70.6 m/s in 100th year)
= 0.995990.005 = 0.003
46
P (no exceedence of 70.6 m/s within return period of design)
= 0.995200 = 0.367
P (no exceedence of 70.6 m/s within a service life of 100 years)
= 0.995100 = 0.606 > 0.366
47
How to determine the design wind speed for a given return period?
Get histogram of annual max. wind velocity
Fit probability model Calculate wind speed for a design
return period
48
N (72,8)Example
V100
0.01
Design for return period of 100 years:
p = 1/100 = 0.01
100( ) 0.99P V V
100 720.99
8
V
V100 = 90.6 mph
Annual max wind velocity
Frequency
49
Suppose we design it for 100 mph, what is the corresponding return period?
( 100)
100 721
8
1 (3.5)
0.000233
P V
T 4300 years
Alternative design criteria 1
50
Pf = P (exceedence within 100 years)
= 1- P (no exceedence within 100 years)
=1- (1-0.000233)100 = 0.023
Probability of failure
51
If P (exceedence within the life time of the building, i.e., 100 years) = 0.01
Q: What should be the design wind velocity?
P (annual exceedence) = 1/T
P (no exceedence in 100 year)
=(1-1/T)100 = 1- 0.01
Let T = design return period
Alternative design criteria 2
52
1
10011 (0.99) 0.9999T
T = 10000 year
720.9999
8DV
VD = 101.76 mph
53
P 3.28
A preliminary planning study on the design of a bridge over a river recommended an acceptable probability of 30% of the bridge being inundated by flood in the next 25 years
a) p : probability of exceedence in one year ?
P (exceedence of design flood within 25 years) = 0.3
Hence, 1- P(no exceedence in 25 years) = 0.3251 (1 ) 0.3p p = 0.0142
54
b ) what is the return period for the design flood?
Return period of design flood
T = 1/p = 1/0.0142 = 70.4 year
55
Review of Bernoulli sequence model
x success in n trials:
binomial
time to first success:
geometric
time to kth success:
negative binomial
1(1 )tp p
(1 )x n xnp p
x
1(1 )
1k t ktp p
k
56
Suppose: average rate of left turns is = 1.5 /min
Q: P (8 LT’s in 6 min) = ?
Mean number of occurrence in 6 min = 9
(a) 6 min divided into 30 second interval
No. of interval = 12
8 12 812 9 91 0.194
8 12 12P
57
(b) 6 min divided into 10 second interval
No. of interval = 36
8 36 836 9 91 0.147
8 36 36P
(c) In general,
P ( 8 occurrences in n trials)
= 8 8
9 91
8
nn
n n
No. of occurrences in time interval = t
58
1x n xn t t
x n n
P ( x occurrences in n trials)
= limn
( )
!
xtt
ex
x = 0, 1, 2, …
Poisson distributionPoisson distribution
59
81.5 6
89
( 8)
(1.5 6)
8!
(9)0.132
8!
P X
e
e
e.g. x = 8, t = 6 min; = 1.5 per min
P (2 LT’s in 30 sec)
= P(X = 2)
12
211.52(1.5 )
2!0.133
e
60
P (at least 2 LT’s in 1 min)
= P(X2)
= 1- P(X=0)-P(X=1)
0 11.5 1.5(1.5 1) (1.5 1)
10! 1!
0.442
e e
61
Poisson Process
1. An event can occur at random and at
any time or any point in the space
2. Occurrence of an event in a given
interval is independent of any other
nonoverlapping intervals.
62
Example: Mean rate of rainstorm is 4 per year
P (2 rainstorms in next 6 months)12
2142(4 )
2!0.271
e
P (at least 2 rainstorms in next 6 months)
= P(X2)
= 1- P(X=0)-P(X=1)0 11 1
2 22 2(4 ) (4 )1
0! 1!0.594
e e
63
Design of length of left-turn bay
Suppose LT’s follow a Poisson process
100 LT’s per hour
How long should LT bay be?
Assume: all cars have the same length
Let the bay be measured in terms of no. of car length k
Suppose traffic signal cycle = 1 minCars waiting for LT will be clear at each cycle
0
1001
60
1001
60( 0) 0.1890!
P X e
1
1001
60
1001
60( 1) 0.3151!
P X e
2
1001
60
1001
60( 2) 0.2632!
P X e
3
1001
60
1001
60( 3) 0.1463!
P X e
4
1001
60
1001
60( 4) 0.0584!
P X e
If k = 0 ,ok 19% of time
If k = 1 , ok 50%
If k = 2 , ok 76%
If k = 3 , ok 91%
If k = 4 , ok 97%
Suppose criteria is adequate 96% of time k = 4
In general,100
60
0
1 100( ) 0.96
! 60
xk
x
P X k ex
If criteria changes, k changes
k = ?
66
Mean of Poisson r.v.: t
Variance of Poisson r.v.: t
c.o.v. = 1t
t t
67
P 3.42
Service stations along highway are located according to a Poisson process
Average of 1 station in 10 miles = 0.1 /mile
P(no gasoline available in a service station)
( ) 0.2P G
68
(a) P( X 1 in 15 miles ) = ?
0 1
0 1.5 1 1.5
( 0) ( 1)
( ) ( )
0! 1!
(1.5) (1.5)
0! 1!0.223 0.335
0.558
t t
P X P X
t e t e
e e
No. of service stations
69
(b) P( none of the next 3 stations have gasoline)
0 3
( 0 | 3, )
( 0 | 3,0.8)
3(0.8) (0.2)
0
0.008
P Y p
P Y
binomial
No. of stations with gasoline
70
(c) A driver noticed the fuel gauge reads empty; he can go another 15 miles from experience.
P (stranded on highway without gasoline) = ?
P (S)( | 0) ( 0) ( | 1) ( 1)
( | 2) ( 2) ......
P S X P X P S X P X
P S X P X
No. of station in 15 miles
binomial Poisson
x P( S| X = x ) P( X = x ) P( S| X = x ) P( X = x )
0 1 e-1.5 = 0.223 0.223
1 0.2 1.5 e-1.5 = 0.335 0.067
2 0.22 1.52/2! e-1.5 = 0.251 0.010
3 0.23 1.53/3! e-1.5 = 0.126 0.001
4 0.24 1.54/4! e-1.5 = 0.047 0.00007
Total = 0.301
72
Alternative approach
Mean rate of service station = 0.1 per mile
Probability of gas at a station = 0.8
Mean rate of “wet” station = 0.10.8 = 0.08 per mile
Occurrence of “wet” station is also Poisson
P (S) = P ( no wet station in 15 mile)0
0.08 15 1.2(0.08 15)0.301
0!e e
73
P 3.48
Time
Quake magnitude
5
6
7
1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971
5 5 5 5
6
7
50-year Record of Earthquake
Consider reliability of a tower over next 20 years
74
The tower can withstand an earthquake whose magnitude is 5 or lower
n, no. of damaging earthquakes
Probability of failure
0
0.5
1.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
0.2
1.0
0.8
1.0 1.0
Damaging earthquake magnitude > 5
a) P (tower subjected to less than 3 damaging earthquakes during its lifetime) = ?
0.8 0.8 0.8 2
( 3)
( 0) ( 1) ( 2)
(0.8) (0.8) / 2!
0.953
P X
P X P X P X
e e e
220 0.8
50t
from record
76
b) P ( tower will not be destroyed by earthquakes within its useful life) = ?
0
0.8 0.8
0.8 2 0.8 3
( )
( | ) ( )
1 (1 0.2) 0.8
(1 0.8) 0.8 / 2! (1 1.0) 0.8 / 3! ...
0.766
E
Ei
P D
P D X i P X i
e e
e e
( ) 0.234EP D
Lift-time reliability
77
c) tower also subjected to tornadoes
120 0.1
200t
TD = tower damaged by tornadoes
0.1
( )
( 0)
1 ( 0)
1 0.095
TP D
P T
P T
e
If a tornado hits tower, the tower will be destoryed.
78
P (tower damaged by natural hazards)
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
0.234 0.095 0.234 0.095
0.307
E T
E T E T
P D D
P D P D P D D
s.i.
79
Time to next occurrence in Poisson process
Time to next occurrence = T is a continuous r.v.
( ) ( ) ( ) 1 ( )T T
d d df t F t P T t P T t
dt dt dt
( )P T t = P (X = 0 in time t)te
( ) 1 t tT
df t e e
dt
Recall for an exponential distribution
( ) xXf x e
80
T follows an exponential distribution with parameter =
E(T) =1/
If = 0.1 per year, E(T) = 10 years
81
Example:
Storms occurs according to Poisson process with = 4 per year =1/3 per month
P ( next storm occurs between 6 to 9 months from now)
9
6
1 19 93 3
66
(6 9) ( )
1| 0.086
3
T
t t
P T f t dt
e dt e
Bernoulli Sequence
Poisson Process
Interval Discrete Continuous
No. of occurrence Binomial Poisson
Time to next occurrence Geometric Exponential
Time to kth occurrence Negative binomial Gamma
Comparison of two families of occurrence models
Multiple Random Variables
E 3.24
Duration and productivity (x,y)
No. of observations
Relative frequencies
6, 50 2 0.0146, 70 5 0.0366, 90 10 0.0728, 50 5 0.0368, 70 30 0.2168, 90 25 0.180
10, 50 8 0.05810, 70 25 0.18010, 90 11 0.07912, 50 10 0.07212, 70 6 0.04312, 90 2 0.014
Total = 139
84
Joint PMF PX,Y (x,y)
PX,Y (x,y)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
x6 8 10 12
50
70
90
y
0.014
0.079
0.014
PX,Y(6,50) = 0.014
P(X>8,Y>70) = 0.079+0.014 = 0.093
85
Marginal PMF PY(y), PX(x)
PX,Y (x,y)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
x6 8 10 12
50
70
90
y
0.317
0.122
0.432
0.129
0.036
0.216
0.180
0.180
0.4750.345
P(X=8) =0.036+0.216+0.180 = 0.432
PPXX(x)(x)
PPYY(y)(y)
86
Conditional PMF
P(Y=70 | X=8) = PY|X(70| 8) ( 8, 70)
( 8)
0.2160.5
0.432
P X Y
P X
PY|X (y|8)
50 70 90
y
0.5
0.083
0.417
87
If X and Y are s.i.
( | ) ( )P X x Y y P X x
| ( | ) ( )X YP x y P X x or
,
|
( , )
( | ) ( )
( ) ( )
X Y
X Y
P x y
P x y P Y y
P X x P Y y
88
Joint and marginal PDF of continuous R.V.s
Surface = fX,Y (x,y)
fX,Y (x=a, y)
fX,Y (x, y=b)
fY (b) = Area
fX (a) = Area
marginal PDF fX (x)
marginal PDF fY (y)
y =b
x=a
Joint PDF
89
a) Calculate probability
,
( , )
( , )d b
X Yc a
P a X b c Y d
f x y dxdy
,
( )
( , )X Ya
P a X
f x y dxdy
90
b) Derive marginal distribution
,( ) ( , )X X Yf x f x y dy
,( ) ( , )Y X Yf y f x y dx
91
c) Conditional distribution
,|
( , )( | )
( )X Y
X YY
f x yf x y
f y
92
Correlation coefficient
a measure of correlation between X and Y
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
E XY E X E Y
Var X Var Y
93
Significance of correlation coefficient
= +1.0 = -1.0
y: strength
x: Length
GlassGlass
y: elongation
x: Length
SteelSteel
94
= 0 0< <1.0
y: ID No
x: height
y: weight
x: height
95
Estimation of from data
1
1i i
x y
x y nXY
n s s
96
Review of Chapter 3
Random variables discrete – PMF, CDF continuous – PDF, CDF
Main descriptors central values: mean, median, mode dispersion: variance, , c.o.v. skewness
Expected value of function
97
Common continuous distribution normal, lognormal, exponential
Occurrence models Bernoulli sequence – binomial,
geometric, negative binomial Poisson process – Possion, exponential,
gamma
98
Multiple random variables Discrete: joint PMF, CDF, marginal PMF,
conditional PMF
Continuous: joint PDF, marginal PDF,
conditional PDF
Correlation coefficient