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1
Electoral College Outcomes
•Recent patterns
•Current array of Dem, Rep, toss-up states
•Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2
Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S. Constitution created the Electoral College. Each state receives as many electoral votes as it has senators and representatives. Therefore, each state, including the District of Columbia, will have at least three electors.
2
Recent patterns: Bush/Dukakis - 1988
Republicans win big
EC: Bush 426 (79%), Dukakis 111 (21%)
Votes: Bush – 48,886,097 (53.9%)Dukakis – 41,809,074 (46.1%)
Total votes: 90,695,171
Reps=blue, Dems=Red
3
Democrats win big in 1996
EC: Clinton 379 (70%), Dole 159 (30%)
Votes: Clinton - 47,402,357 (49%); Dole 39,198,755 (41%); Perot – 8,085,402 (8%)
92,686,514 total votes
Recent patterns: Clinton/Dole - 1996
4
Recent patterns: Gore/Bush 2000
No one wins big EC: Bush 271 (50.4%), Gore 266 (49.6%)
Vote: Bush – 50,456,002 (48.4%Gore – 50,999,897 (48.9%)Nader – 2,882,955 (2.8%)
Total Votes: 104,338,854
5
2004 – General Pattern:of EC Votes:
Rep (Red), Dem (Blue) and Toss-up (White) States
6
Distribution of Electoral College Votes – Current Distribution and Democratic
“Sure” States (>5%)
• Current distribution
• Changes since 2000 – Dem sure states lost 3 EC votes
• Total 183 but only 179 if Kerry loses Hawaii
State EC Votes
Change in # of Votes since 2000
Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2
Bush Poll
%
Kerry Poll
%
Dem "Sure" states
Dist. Col. 3 0 -72.0 11 78
New York 31 -2 -21.5 39 57
Rhode Island 4 0 -21.0 41 54
Mass 12 0 -20.5 36 50
Maryland 10 0 -14.0 43 54
Connecticut 7 -1 -13.5 42 52
Illinois 21 -1 -12.0 42 54
Vermont 3 0 -11.5 40 53
New Jersey 15 0 -11.5 42 50
Delaware 3 0 -10.0 38 45
California 55 1 -9.5 42 49
Hawaii 4 0 -8.5 46 45
Maine 4 0 -8.0 39 50
Washington 11 0 -5.5 44 50
Dem "Sure" states =>
183 -3 -15.9 31 46
7
• Changes since 2000: Dem leaning states lose 4 EC votes
• Total 65• Total blue sure and leaning 183+65=248• Minus (Hawaii): 244 (need 36 votes)
Distribution of EC Votes: Democrat “Leaning” States (2.5-5%)
State EC Votes
Change since 2000
Bush-Dem:
(Poll+200
0)/2
Bush Poll%
Kerry Poll%
Dem "Leaning" states (1.5-5%)
Penn 21 -2 -3.5 46 49
Oregon 7 0 -3.0 44 50
Minnesota 10 0 -2.5 46 49
Michigan 17 -1 -2.5 47 48
Wisconsin 10 -1 -4.0 44 52
Democratic leaning 65 -4 -3.1 42 49
Dem Sure+lean => 248
8
Distribution of EC Votes: Rep “Sure” States, 5%+
•Changes since 2000 -Rep states gain 3 EC votes•Total 217
State EC Votes
Change in EC Votes since 2000
Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2
BushPoll%
KerryPoll%
Rep "Sure" States
Arizona 10 2 5.5 50 45
Missouri 11 0 6.0 52 44
Arkansas 6 0 6.0 49 43
Virginia 13 1 5.0 50 47
Tennessee 11 0 6.5 51 41
North Carolina 15 1 11.0 52 43
Mississippi 6 -1 12.0 51 42
Alabama 9 0 16.5 57 39
Georgia 15 2 11.0 52 42
Indiana 11 -1 17.5 58 39
Kentucky 8 0 16.5 56 39
South Carolina 8 0 17.0 57 39
Louisiana 9 0 17.0 58 32
Kansas 6 0 22.0 60 37
Texas 34 2 21.5 59 37
South Dakota 3 0 22.0 55 33
Montana 3 0 22.5 57 36
North Dakota 3 0 24.0 55 35
Oklahoma 7 -1 27.5 61 28
Alaska 3 0 29.0 57 30
Nebraska 5 0 29.5 61 32
Idaho 4 0 35.0 59 30
Wyoming 3 0 38.5 65 29
Utah 5 0 43.0 69 24
Rep "Sure" States =>
217 3 22.6 63 40
9
• Changes since 2000: Rep leaning states gain 0 EC vote
• Total 5
• Total Rep sure and leaning 217+5=222
• Add Hawaii: 226 (need 44 votes)
Distribution of EC Votes: Republican “Leaning” States
State E C Votes
Change in # Of Votes since 2000
Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2
Bush Poll
%
Kerry Poll%
Rep "Leaning" States (1.5-5%)
West Virginia 5 0 5.0 51 47
Rep "Leaning" States =>) 5 0 5.0 51 47
10
Changes since 2000: Toss-up states gain 2 EC votes
Total 68
Distribution of EC Votes: “Toss-up” States (-2% to +2%)
State EC Votes
Change in # of Votes since 2000
Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2
Bush Poll%
Kerry Poll
%
Iowa 7 0 -1.0 44 45
New Hampshire 4 0 -0.5 46 48
Florida 27 2 0.5 48 47
Nevada 5 1 1.5 49 49
New Mexico 5 0 1.5 47 44
Ohio 20 -1 2.0 50 50
Toss up states => 68 2 0.7 47.3 47.2
11
1st Scenario
Bush Wins “Big”Assumptions:
• Wins all Rep sure states = 217• Wins all Rep leaning and Hi=9• Wins all toss-up states =68• Wins Minn. and Michigan =27• Total Bush: 321
12
2nd Scenario
Bush Wins “Small”Assumptions:
• Wins all Rep states = 217• Wins Rep leaning =5• Wins all toss-up states=68• Total Bush: 276• Total Bush win range: 276-321
13
4 Scenarios
Kerry Wins “Small”• Assumptions:• Wins all Dem sure states except Hi
= 179• Wins all Dem leaning=65• Wins one large toss-up state =
Florida=27• OR: wins Ohio (20) +Iowa (7) =27• Total Kerry: 271
14
4th Scenario
Kerry Wins “Big”• Assumptions:• Wins all Dem sure states
including Hi = 183• Wins all Dem leaning states = 65• Wins all toss-up states =68• Total Kerry: 316• Total Kerry win range: 271-316