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1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised: June 17, 2008

Title: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Product Improvement with GOES Project Type: Product Improvement Status: Renewal Duration: 2 years Leads:

» John Knaff (StAR/RAMMB)

» Mark DeMaria (StAR/RAMMB)

Other Participants: » Andrea Schumacher (CIRA)

» John Kaplan (OAR/AOML)

» Chris Sisko (NCEP/TPC)

» Renate Brummer (CIRA)

» Hiro Gosden (CIRA)

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2. Project Summary GOES data is utilized in several operational TC products

» NCEP/TPC SHIPS statistical intensity model » NCEP/TPC Rapid Intensity Index (RII)» NESDIS annular hurricane index» NESDIS TC formation probability product

Project will focus on the improvement of these products» SHIPS

– Extend the GOES database back to 1982 for predictor development– Reformulate model to eliminate “correction” step due to short GOES time series

» RII– Examine inner core propagation of cold cloud top features as precursor to rapid

intensification

» Annular hurricane index– Evaluate real time runs (independent cases)– Test new discriminators

» TC formation product– Examine time series of GOES WV imagery for upstream predictors– Extend product from 1 to 3 days with additional GFS and time series input

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3. Motivation/Justification

Supports NOAA Mission Goal: Weather and Water

Improved intensity forecasting identified as high priority in NOAA and NCEP/TPC

Intensity forecast skill still lags that of track forecasting

Unanticipated rapid intensity changes are a major problem for coastal evacuations

TC genesis forecasting capabilities are very limited

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4. Methodology SHIPS model

» Add 1982-1994 cases from CIMSS to developmental database » Modify SHIPS formulation to eliminate correction step» Check for new predictors and test on independent cases» Implement operationally at NCEP/TPC if successful

RII» Develop complex principal component technique to objectively track inner core

propagating features from GOES» Test as precursor to rapid intensification» Coordinate with AOML and TPC to test utility in operational RII» Implement in operations if successful

Annular Hurricane Index» Evaluate real-time runs and test new discriminators» Modify real time code if successful (part of the SHIPS model)

TC Formation Product» Obtain databases of tropical-strip WV imagery and GFS forecast fields» Perform time series analysis and objective TC trackers for the GFS» Investigate longer lead probability forecasts

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5. Expected Outcomes

SHIPS» New version implemented at TPC with improved GOES input

RII» New version implemented at TPC with improved GOES input

Annular hurricane index» Real time product evaluated and skill determined» Real time product updated based on research results» Paper published on AHI

TC formation product» Longer-range product tested and evaluated for skill» PSDI-proposal submitted for transition to NESDIS operations» Paper published on formation product

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Tropical Water Vapor Strip TC Formation Product

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6. Progress in FY08 Milestones

FY08» A. Add 1982-1994 GOES imagery to SHIPS database» B. Begin reformulation of SHIPS model to eliminate correction step» C. Begin development of complex PC method for rapid intensification

study» D. Verify annular hurricane index from 2007 cases» E. Begin investigation of new AHI predictors» F. Assemble GOES WV and GFS databases for TC formation product» G. Begin analysis of WV and GFS data for predictive content

A. Add 1982-1994 GOES imagery to SHIPS database

2008 Operational SHIPS, LGEM model based on 1982-2007 data» 1982-2007 GFS, Reynolds SST

» 1995-2007 Atlantic GOES data» 1997-2007 East/Central Pacific GOES data

Requires 2-step prediction » Main forecast with GFS, SST predictors» Correction step with GOES predictors

1982-2007 GOES normalized data obtained from CIMSS » Converted to format used by SHIPS

» 10 km resolution vs 4 km resolution

» GOES predictors being compared for overlap periods

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B. Begin reformulation of SHIPS model to eliminate correction step

Main SHIPS development code modified to accept GOES input before the correction step» Extra quality control needed because GOES not always available

Satellite input also includes ocean heat content (OHC) estimates from satellite altimetry OHC estimates being extended back to 1982

» NHC OHC product only available back to 1995» No altimetry before 1992» Technique being developed to estimate OHC from monthly climatologies and Reynold’s SST

Both OHC and GOES predictors will be added directly Testing needed to determine utility of statistical OHC

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C. Begin development of complex PC method for rapid intensification study (1)

A Complex Principle Component method was developed Some of the resulting CPC were found to be related to the rapid intensification

(RI) of tropical cyclones with initial intensities between 45 and 85 kt. These IR-based patterns (CPC above) are nearly independent of the

environmental factors which are the basis for current Kaplan/DeMaria rapid intensification index (RII above).

Presented at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Plans to create a product that would use the CPC information along with the RII

to better predict RI events – on the RAMMB tropical cyclone web page.

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RII CPC

C. Begin development of complex PC method for rapid intensification study (2)

Combined Probability Forecast

8/12/07 00 UTCAHI = 1

8/12/07 12 UTCAHI = 19

8/12/07 18 UTCAHI = 57

8/12/07 00 UTCAHI = 4

Annular Hurricane Index2007 Season Verification

The AHI was implemented operationally at the National Hurricane Center in Miami for the 2007 hurricane season.

Only annular hurricane observed in 2007: Hurricane Flossie (EP09) on 8/12 and 8/13. AHI correctly identified annular structure on 8/12 at 12 and 18 UTC.

No other annular hurricanes were observed, no other AHI identifications The AHI skillfully identified annular hurricanes in 2007.

D. Verify annular hurricane index from 2007 cases

E. Begin investigation of new AHI predictors

Additional environmental predictors from the NCEP analyses were examined, but no new predictive capability was found.

Results from the 2008 season show that identification of the annular hurricane environment might be useful» Boris, east Pacific, » Bertha, Atlantic

– Storms not annular because of max wind screening– Still had persistence characteristics of annular hurricanes

Code modifications being investigated to identify annular hurricane environment

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F. Assemble GOES WV and GFS databases for TC formation product

Working with Ken Knapp (HURSAT project) to obtain inter-calibrated global WV imagery back to 1998

Preliminary analysis of sample HURSAT WV data revealed issues (see below), confirms data is not suitable for use at this time

– Ken Knapp (NCDC) indicated that final inter-calibration of WV data has been further postponed and could not give a set completion date

Near-global WV imagery collected from 2006 and 2007 (combination of GOES-E, GOES-W, MTSAT, Meteosat-5/7

– Work under way to calibrate and assemble global strip for those years

Histograms of BT from GOES (blue) and HURSAT (red) imagery for 8/1/04 suggest calibration issues still exist and data is not ready to use for analysis.

GOES-E GOES-W

G. Begin analysis of WV and GFS data for predictive content

Met with Z. Toth (NCEP) in June 2008, made arrangements to acquire their model (e.g., GFS) TC genesis tracks for our analysis

Preliminary analysis expected to begin Sep 2008

7. FY09 Milestones FY09

A. Implement new version of SHIPS at NCEP/TPC if appropriateB. Test RII predictive information from complex PC analysisC. Coordinate with AOML and TPC on modifications to operational RIID. Test new SHIPS/RII predictorsE. Coordinate with AOML and TPC on RII modifications F. Implement updated AHI in operational SHIPS, as appropriateG. Test extended range TC formation product

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A. Implement new version of SHIPS at NCEP/TPC if appropriate

A new version of the SHIPS model has been developed and is ready for implementation at NCEP» Correction step is no longer needed

– IR data (1982-1995) has been added to the developmental dataset– A Ocean Heat Content proxy has been developed to estimate OHC prior to

1991.

» The is currently a moratorium on the NCEP Supercomputer

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B. Test RII predictive information from complex PC analysis

A method to generate the complex principle components from real-time time series of IR image has been developed

These time series will be used to examine 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Cases that rapidly intensify.

Awaiting case… for below

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C. Coordinate with AOML and TPC on modifications to operational RII

Updated versions of the RII were implemented in the Atlantic

New versions of RII, which use IR information, for the East Pacific have been implemented at NCEP

A paper documenting the RII for both basins was accepted for publication.

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D. Test new SHIPS/RII predictors

I need some details from Mark

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E. Coordinate with AOML and TPC on RII modifications

A paper documenting the RII for both basins was accepted for publication.

Plans have started to add OHC to East Pacific RII More from Mark wrt to tested things

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F. Implement updated AHI in operational SHIPS, as appropriate

No changes were needed to AHI Still operational SHIPS updates awaiting lift of the moratorium.

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G. Test extended range TC formation product

Global water vapor imagery collected, calibrated, and assembled into tropical water vapor strips. Available from July 2007 to present (limited by Meteosat 9 archive).

Explored advection method to predict WV brightness temps out to 6, 12, 24, …, 48 hours. » Advected BT fields correlated relatively well out to 6hrs (R2 ~ 0.5)» Advection scheme skill dropped off sharply after t = 6h» Implies extended range TCFP will have to rely more heavily on

GFS model-derived fields than satellite-based parameters

Work has begun on developing extended range TCFP» Currently collecting 2006 – 2008 GFS forecast files from NOMADS

– Currently have archive of forecasts from 2000 - 2005

» Analysis and algorithm development should begin in fall 2009» Testing will occur in late 2009 / early 2010

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8. Funding Profile (K)

Summary of leveraged funding» NESDIS base funding support for J. Knaff and M. DeMaria

» CIRA infrastructure support

» GOES-R3 hardware and computer support

Funding Sources Procurement Office Purchase Items FY07 FY08 FY09

GIMPAP StAR Total Project Funding 90 82 85

StAR Grant to CIRA 90 77 79.2

StAR Federal Travel 0 4 4.5

StAR Federal Publications 0 2 1.3

StAR Equipment 0 0 0

StAR Contract to xxxx 0 0 0

StAR BOP to other line office 0 0 0

Other Sources 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

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9. FY09 Expected Purchase Items

$85,000 FY09 Total Project Budget» $79,200 Grant to CIRA, March 2009

– 9 months RA support and overhead– Computer charges– Publication charges– University overhead

» $4,500 Federal Travel– $2,700 J. Knaff, Jan. 2009, travel to Phoenix, AZ for AMS annual meeting to

present results of GOES data PCI analysis for TC rapid intensity change forecasting– $1,800 M. DeMaria, Mar. 2009, travel to Tampa, FL for 63rd Interdepartmental

Hurricane Conference to collaborate with NHC and HRD on final form of SHIPS and RII Models for the 2009 hurricane season

» $1,300 Federal Publication Charges– Weather and Forecasting article on new TC pressure-wind relationship,

Jan. 2009