01. Van Acker Roland Berger

108 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX

Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008

Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid

Renewable energy sources have become a must

World fossil fuel energy reserves – 2008

Reserves(years atcurrentproductionlevel)

6139 145 80

208 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: BP report, Roland Berger analysis

Oil Natural Gas Coal Fossil FuelsWeighted Average

105 00

120.00

135.00

Gas prices are expected to remain high

Barclays

USD/bl

September 2007WTI crude: USD 80/bbl

Forecasted WTI crude oil price development to 2020 (real USD 2006 per barrel)


0.00

15.00

30.00

45.00

60.00

75.00

90.00

105.00

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, EIA International Energy Outlook, Ministry ofFinance of selected countries, MEES, Samba

CERA 2

CERA 1

CERA 3

Deutsche Bank

Goldman Sachs

Merril Lynch

EIARussiaMexico

Saudi Arabia

IEA forecast (WEO 2006)

EIA forecast (IEO 2007)

Global CO2 emissions 2007 (%)

Several polluters should be considered in today'sdiscussion

Total: 800 Gt/year

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (%)

Total: 28 Gt/year

Source of global CO2 emissions 2007

25 0%


41.5

Oceans

Vegetation27

Combustionof biomass

<1

27Soil

3.5

In Europe: Road transport ~ 20%, passenger cars ~ 12%

19.0%

23.0%25.0%

3.0% 2.0% 1.5%

Domesticfuel andsmallconsu-mers

Air traffic

15.0%

Comb-ustion ofbiomass

Industry Othertraffic

6.0%

TrucksPowerplants

Ships onopen sea

5.5%

Pass-engercars

AnthropogenicCO2 emissions(%)

Source: VDI, EU

Policies in all regions are focused on reducingemissions

(g CO2/km)

USA


California

Canada

AustraliaChina

Japan EU

Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Hybrid concepts reduce CO2 emissions

Potential CO2 savings (%)Full hybrid

CO2 savings of hybrid concepts


• E-Recuperation(limited)

• Start-Stop

• E-Boost• E-Recuperation• Start-Stop

• Electric driving• E-Boost• E-Recuperation• Start-Stop

Functions

Installedelectricalpower(kW)

Mild hybrid

Micro hybrid

150

Newdevelop-ments

Source: Ricardo, TNO, IEEP, Roland Berger

Full hybrids especially help reduce emissions forhigher-weight vehicles

Diesel-Hybrid as full hybridCO2 emission1) (g/km) per vehicle by weight


1) CO2 emissions according to NEDC

Diesel-hybridforecastbased oncost-benefitassumptions

Source: IAV

A full hybrid vehicle currently costs about USD6,000 more than a non-hybrid

Potential CO2 savings2)

(g/km)

Full hybrid

Cost – CO2 impact ratio hybrid systems 2006


Cost per vehicle(USD '000)

Micro hybrid

Mild hybrid

1) ICE: Internal combustion engine , 2) Medium size vehicle (e.g. VW Golf)

Source: Ricardo, Roland Berger

To reduce CO2 emissions focus should be onreduction of road resistance

Gearbox%

Fuel - 100%Coolingsystem– 45.5%

Exhaust gas

–23.0%

Mechanical– 31.5%

Comments

• Direct energy loss in combustionengines accounts for about 68%of total losses

Energy transformation of today's vehicles in NEDC


Heat loss to radiator– 18.7%

Convection andradiation

– 3.2%

Residual heatat

end of test– 23.6%

Charge air – 1.1%

Intercooler – 0.8%

Thermal losses inexhaust pipes – 2.6%

Thermal lossesin catalyst – 2.6%

Exhaust gasheat losses –

15.8%

– 1.6%Oil pump– 0.5%

Power steering– 1.9%

Water pump– 0.3%

Alternator– 0.6%

Battery

Rollingresistance– 11.0%

Accelerationlosses– 8.5%

Air resistance– 6.4%

ElectricalDevices– 0.9%

Warm up26.8% Road

resistance– 25.8%

Cha

rgin

g –

1.9%

(Braking energy– 7.7%)

Acc

esso

ries

–4.

1%

of total losses

• Losses from disposal ofenergy/heat of the enginethrough cooling system (2/3) andexhaust gas (1/3)

• Out of 32% of mechanical energytransformations only 8.5% areused for driving

• Energy losses from brakingaccount for only 7.7% of totalenergy losses

Source: AVL, Roland Berger

Most of the CO2 emission savings in hybridsresult from better operating point adjustments

CO2 [g/miles]

100% 8% 4% 30%640

CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles]

640 640

INTERURBAN (Avg. 26 mph) FREEWAY (Avg. 76 mph)URBAN (Avg. 16 mph)

Fuel consumption/CO2 analysis of Lexus Rx 400h full hybrid

1008 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: TU Darmstadt

• Hybrids have no impact on reducing rolling friction, drag coefficient and vehicle weight

• Powertrain needs to be optimized as a system

• Hybrids with e-boost function pave the way for downsizing

320

4% 30%

58%

0

640100% 4% 5% 20%

71%

0

320

640 100% 1% 1% 0% 98%

0

640

320

Bench-mark

vehicle

Start-stop

Recupe-ration

Optimizeoperating

point

Rx 400h Bench-mark

vehicle

Start-stop

Recupe-ration

Optimizeoperating

point

Rx 400h Bench-mark

vehicle

Start-stop

Recupe-ration

Optimizeoperating

point

Rx 400h

If a car were a house (1/2)

Energy is saved by:

RA × ∆TEnergy consumption =


• Thermal insulation(R↑)

and by

• Controlling thethermostat (∆T↓)

• Build smaller houses(A ↓)

If a car were a house (2/2)

Energy is saved by:


• More efficient powertrains

and by

• Driving less, slower and moreconstantly

• Lighter and smaller cars

Fuel consumption is a function of vehicleattributes and powertrain technologies

Freeway

Road resistanceAerodynamicsPowertrain technologyMulti-speed transmission

Importance of attributes relative to annual mileage and driving style

e reco

very

Powertrain size


UrbanMILEAGELow High

DRIVINGSTYLE

WeightKinetic energy recovery providingelectric power

Efficient low-range transmission

Roa

d re

sist

ance

Wei

ght/k

inet

ic e

nerg

y re

cove

ry

Powertrain technology

PriceImportance of attributes

Kinetic energy recovery

Best vehicle types depend on annual distancedriven and driving conditons

Vehicle styles best suited to each driving style

Freeway

Non-hybrid,aerodynamic,

Low-tech,aerodynamic,


UrbanMILEAGELow High

DRIVINGSTYLE

4-cylinder sedan

Lightweight,diesel/hybrid vehicle

gasoline-powered car

Low-tech,gasoline-powered, micro-hybrid,lightweightvehicle

Electric vehicle will be the next logical step fromhybrids

Hybrids

Electric Vehicle (EV)with "ICE rangeextender"

BatteryEVTechnology

Examples Micro

St t St

Mild

E B t

Full

E D i E D i

Fuel CellEV

Low or zero-emission technologies and examples

1508 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 15

TeslaSmart

Start-Stop E-Boost

Civic IMA Prius

E-Drive

GM E-Flex

E-Drive

PotentialCO2reduction

3-4% < 15% < 20% < 100% 100%

RangeE-Motor(miles)

0 0 6-31 124-249 200-400

FCXconcept100%1) ?

Pure Electric Vehicles

1) If one regards total energy balance, CO2 reduction potential is significantly smaller than 100%

Source: Roland Berger Research

By 2015 battery driven EVs will grasp a significantmarket share

40% of world population will live in cities(>1 million people) & California willrequire a share of Zero-Emission-vehicles in fleet


ELECTRICVEHICLES

Battery technology improvements (will)provide sufficient range & costs willcome down

New market players will be on themarket with electric cars & increase thepressure on the OEMs

Source: Roland Berger

Hydrogen powered Electric Vehicles will not playa significant role before 2020

Four major stoppers for the success of hydrogen as the future fuel have been identified

1. Infrastructure to supply the fleet just in the US will cost over 500 USD billion

2 Hydrogen price at the filling station will cost at least twice that of gasoline


2. Hydrogen price at the filling station will cost at least twice that of gasoline

3. End user technologies such as fuel cells won't be market competitive by2020

4. Other competing technologies such as PHEVs1) and BEVs2) offering todaybetter CO2 emissions levels at a market competitive price and with lowerinvestment requirements will already be established in the market – and may"close the door for FCEVs3)"

Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles, US Department of Commerce, Argonne National Laboratory

1) PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Vehicle, 2) BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, 3) FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

ZEV are at least 2 times more efficient than fuelcell cars

Overview of energy efficiency from Well-to-Wheel comparison for hydrogen andelectricity

20100

Hydrogen Well-to-Wheel efficiency Electricity Well-to-Wheel efficiency

108100


283

27

184

Electr.Well

H2Prod.

H2Transp.

H2Compression

FuelCell

Electr.DriveTrain

Energyleft

6985

10

Electr.DriveTrain

Li-ionBattery

Electr.Well

Powerlines

Batterycharger

Energyleft

Source: Roland Berger

Business opportunities are abundant because thesolution is more than a hybrid

Technology development and supply of:

Efficient gas engines Efficient diesel engines Efficient DiesOttoengines


Electric motors andEMS Efficient transmissions Light weight AWD

capabilities

Light weight bodystructures

Communication/Integration,

vehicle/vehicle andvehicle/infrastructure

…


Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008

Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid

Documents

01. Van Acker Roland Berger