Additive manufacturing - Roland Berger

manufacturingAdditive

Nov

embe

r –

20

19

The latest on technologies, materials

and applications

A M T E C H N O LO GY

S H A R E P. 4

Taking metal 3D printing to thenext level

2 Roland Berger Additive manufacturing

Title

: FIT

AD

DIT

IVE

MA

NU

FACT

URI

NG

GRO

UP

We analyze the latest developments in the metal ad-ditive manufacturing market and project their impact on different industries: powder bed fusion (PBF) is the most mature metal printing technology and still the strongest-selling, with machine sales rising steadily over the last ten years. Binder jetting (BJ) is a new AM technology, but in time is expected to rival PBF in production for smaller, less critical parts, giving PBF a run for its money. Beyond new tech-nologies, new materials have been introduced in the market: Scalmalloy, A20X and Inconel 939 are new metals headed for commercialization, which are expected to advance AM. Further materials at R&D stage include coated powders, amorphous metals, ceramics and monocrystalline structures. Meanwhile, the number of small printing service providers with little specialization is expected to decrease in the future as well as the number of AM machine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for PBF and DED.

In a nutshell

S E EP. 8

S E EP. 1 0

S E EP. 7

O U R T E C H N O LO GY

C U B E P. 4

3Roland BergerAdditive manufacturing

creased their machine utilization to 5,000–7,000 h per year. These developments will result in an effective machine sales increase of 20%–30%. Among the top-selling PBF machines for production systems, the top four manufacturers account for 60% of all parts produced.

Binder jetting (BJ), as a rather new additive man-ufacturing technology with a different focus (see graph-ic p. 4), is expected to make a significant impact by 2023 with increased unit sales of approximately 40%–60% p.a. By 2023 it will have gained about five percentage points in metal AM technology share compared with 2018 based on unit sales. Assuming binder jetting be-comes an established technology, the annual printed parts volume will overtake that of currently established technologies such as PBF by about 2030. This predic-tion is based on expectations that the process speed will increase to about ten times that of PBF, cutting the cost of PBF parts by the same factor. As binder jetting is suited to parts with smaller dimensions, lower strength and larger lot sizes, the technology is expected to be driven by series production in the automotive indus-try, although currently only for steel parts. Aluminum or titanium metal alloys are currently not ready for use.

In addition, the 3D printing company Stratasys is developing a hybrid binder jetting and powder press system that could improve the relative density of parts – one of the biggest challenges in binder jetting. Materials such as Aluminum 6061 might be process-able using this machine. However, it will be a few years before the technology makes an impact. The titanium wire-based DED method offered by Norsk Titanium is applied already today. It is suited to larger parts, such as those for structural aircraft, and might therefore gain more importance in this application area.

Developments in themachine market

The latest developments in the additive manu-facturing (AM) industry present exciting opportunities for serial production with the emergence of new technologies and materials. We follow up last year's RB Focus, "Advancements in metal 3D printing," with a deep dive into the newest insights from the machine market, material development and application areas (see graphic p. 4).

While metal additive manufacturing has cleared the hurdle for series production in niche applications, novel technologies and materials will also soon be-come commercially available.

Metal additive manufacturing by powder bed fusion (PBF) is a well-established technology, with production machines and systems available for both prototypes and small series production in aerospace, turbines, medical and automotive. PBF and other met-al additive manufacturing techniques are growing at a brisk pace compared with traditional technologies and will continue to do so next year.

Our metal additive manufacturing technology cube depicts the current machine and technology ca-pacities regarding part performance, cost and lot size. PBF, as the most mature technology (see graphic p. 4), is used for high-value parts that can compensate for the still considerable cost of parts of up to EUR 1,000 per kg.

Nevertheless, PBF machine sales have risen con-tinuously over the last ten years. We estimate the growth rate for powder bed fusion production systems to be about 10% p.a. in terms of units sold. Additionally, PBF machines are becoming more productive using multi-ple lasers, larger build areas, and further advancements in process and software. On top of these technical im-provements, professional part producers have in-Ti

tle: F

IT A

DD

ITIV

E M

AN

UFA

CTU

RIN

G G

ROU

P


Lot size

Part performance

Cost

Current status of major AM technologies

Metal AM technologies in the cube (schematic)

Technology share of installed base

1) Estimate based on a machine lifetime of eight years Source: Roland Berger

Metal AM technology share

MJ: material jetting

BJ: binder jetting

EXT: material extrusion

PBF-EB: powder bed fusion by electron beam

PBF-L: powder bed fusion by laser

DED-powder: direct energy deposition powder by laser

DED-wire: direct energy deposition wire by laser

Unit share of installed base 2018(total installed base ~7,300 systems)1

PBF

DED

BJ

3D-I

llust

ratio

n: P

adra

ic R

app


Material development and new AM materials

Metal material prices have recently been declin-ing and are expected to continue falling, though at a lower rate (see graphic p. 6). Most common materials – such as AlSi10Mg, Inconel 718 or 316L – can be pur-chased well below EUR 100 per kg. Alloys containing more expensive metals like titanium or scandium, however, will be found at a price range of EUR 100–200 per kg. Nevertheless, as PBF metal materials currently make up only about 5%–20% of all parts costs, the fur-ther price decline will only have a minor impact on the overall price of AM parts. Since the metal AM market is rather young, most commonly used materials have their origins in other applications and were found to be suitable for AM printing, rather than being designed expressly for the application.

Recent developments include approaches for us-ing new metal powders and entirely new material types designed especially for AM (see graphic p. 7). Scalmalloy, a scandium aluminum magnesium alloy, was devel-oped for AM applications in aerospace. With its low density (2.7 g/cm³), high ductility and hardness, Scalm-alloy offers the advantages of both aluminum and titanium. Building aerospace frameworks from this material helps save fuel and increase cargo capacity.

Thanks to a new extraction process for scandi-um from red mud, the price is expected to decline.

A20X is a casting aluminum alloy used in aero-space with mechanical characteristics comparable to Scalmalloy. A20X, however, does not contain expensive rare elements, so its powder price is lower.

Inconel 939 is a nickel-based superalloy and is a long-established construction material for high-

temperature applications that require high-strength materials. The mechanical properties for this alloy, which is produced using conventional techniques, are well known. Oxide dispersion strengthened alloys (ODS) consist of an alloy with small oxide particles dispersed within it. These alloys stand out with their incredible stability under challenging conditions, like high temperatures, ultra-sonic and corrosive chemicals.

Not only are such new materials advancing towards commercialization, but also new production and process methods have been developed that enable the tailoring of specific material properties for use in AM (see graphic p. 8).

The properties of an AM metal powder, like flow-ability, absorption or particle stability, depend on the morphology and the surface of the powder particles. Besides modifying the atomization process, the mate-rial can also change its properties via post-modifica-tion by adding a coating on the particle surface. With this modification, AM processes using oxide-free titani-um or aluminum, as well as multi-alloy processes,

"Products made from new, tailor-made AM materials will show unprecedented performance."

B E R N H A R D L A N G E F E L D, PA R T N E R3D-I

llust

ratio

n: P

adra

ic R

app


Source: Roland Berger

Material powderprices

Recent and expected powder price decline [in EUR/kg]

Price decline 2015–2018

Historic price level ~2015

TitaniumTiAl6V4

Scalmalloy

Nickel-based alloyInconel 718

Stainless steel316L

Aluminum alloy AlSi10Mg

400–500

300–400

100–200

100–200

100–200

Expected further decline 2019–2025

can be realized. Unfortunately, such powders require additional manufacturing processing steps, which raises the retail price.

Amorphous metals are non-crystalline materi-als with unique properties, like extreme hardness or the ability to absorb shocks. This metal form can be obtained by cooling and solidifying liquid metal before any crystallization can occur. The AM process for these materials, however, is difficult to handle and is still in the R&D stage. In addition, annealing amorphous ma-terials can be used to create nanocrystalline structures.

Monocrystalline components have outstanding mechanical properties. To print these materials, the printing process must be adjusted to the crystallization

speed and structure, and it is necessary to avoid addi-tional crystallization seeds. This difficult process is still under development.

Ceramics are known for their high corrosion, temperature and electrical resistance. These materials are already used in AM processes to manufacture bioactive or catalyst support structures, as well as filters. Ceramics are currently rarely used in AM, but their relevance is expected to grow.

Chemical composition

AI Mg Sc AI Cu Ti Ni Cr Co Fe Cr Co AI Si Mg

Mechanical properties

Price

Developer

Advantage

Application

Disadvantage

Todays AM usage

Future AM relevance

Material strength

Breaking strength

Scalmalloy ® A20X ® Inconel 939 ODS steel1 AlSi10Mg2

3 3

> Invented for AM application

in aerospace

> AP Works > aeromet

> Expensive> Uncertified

material

> Uncertified material

> Challenging power production

> Uncertified material > Complex AM process

> High weight

> Moderate mechanical properties

> Invented for AM application

in aerospace > Cheaper than

Scalmalloy

> Thermal, oxidative and hypersonic

resistance

> Cheap> Commonly used

> Thermal resistance

7New commercial materials

Characteristics of new AM materials compared with AlSi10Mg

1) Oxide dispersion strengthened, 2) Commonly used reference material, 3) (Gas) turbine Source: Roland Berger

New materials under development

Recent developments for new AM materials

Description

Material properties

Price

Advantage

Disadvantage

Development progress

Future AM relevance

Mechanical strength

Chemical resistance

Unique properties

Coated powder

Amorphous metals

Monocrys-talline

Ceramics

> Broad applicability> Controllable material

properties

> High durability> Temperature resistant

> High-performance product

> High-performance product

> AM-processibility of alloys or multialloy

compositions

> Non-crystallinematerial

> Printed products have a monocrystalline

structure

> Metal oxides or carbides e.g. silicon

carbide

> Multistep powder production

(expensive)

> Slow and complicated AM

process

> Slow and very complicated AM

process

> Complicated AM process

8



New applications

New materials and process improvements are enabling new AM applications. For example, static gas turbine components made of nickel-base alloys are increasingly being printed in series production. AM components (e.g. burner nozzles, static compressor components) increase the efficiency of gas turbines by enabling higher combustion temperatures and the reduction of maintenance times. This creates not only a positive business case within the life cycle of AM components, but also speeds up delivery times, makes customizations easier and reduces dependencies on the conventional supply chain.

Recently, new applications for copper and cop-per alloys have been developed, due to the outstanding electrical and heat transport properties of copper. These include induction coils and high-performance heat exchangers. The challenge in printing this mate-rial is its different absorption spectra. Due to its red-dish color, copper cannot absorb the commonly used red laser light, which reduces production speed. Green lasers in PBF machines can circumvent the slower pro-duction rates but are costlier and currently only avail-able from a single manufacturer. In recent years, there has been strong progress in the process development for copper and copper alloys, which has helped over-come the difficulties of low laser light absorption and high thermal conductivity. A configurator for additive manufacturing of copper components with improved electrical and thermal conductivity enables tailor-made applications such as inductors for inductive heat treat-ment, power electronics, heat sinks, heat exchanger and electromobility applications. A copper coil design-er makes individual heat coil geometries/structures readily available.

Nonetheless, additive manufacturing has only made limited inroads into series production in key industries that could be drivers for AM industrialization. With a few exceptions, series production is still pending in aerospace structures and automotive industries, where AM technologies are still mainly used for prototyping. Likewise, AM processes are only used to a limited extent in toolmaking. This is mainly due to strong cost pressure in those industries, which has not changed significantly in recent years. AM technologies enable the production of components with superior proper-ties regarding strength and stiffness and offer greater geometrical freedom compared with conventional manufacturing processes.

However, the additional costs arising from the additive production of components are not in propor-tion to these advantages. Only in some medical tech-nology and high-tech applications such as turboma-chinery can higher production costs be justified by using superior component properties, creating a posi-tive business case within the component life cycle and thus enabling AM series production.

"Still-new metal AM technologies (like material jetting or binder jetting) are evolving, enlarging the addressable market for AM."

M A R K U S M Ö H R L E , S E N I O R P R O J E C T M A N A G E R


The sluggish industrialization of manufacturing technologies affects all major AM market participants. Currently many AM printing service providers, especial-ly small ones, have problems reaching their machine capacity utilization. The reasons are twofold: on the one hand, strong sales of AM machines with standard di-mensions (approx. 250x250x250 mm3) in recent years have led to a large installed machine base in this seg-ment. As a result, competitive pressure has lowered prices of commodity components with standard dimen-sions. On the other hand, additive manufacturing is only used for series production in specialized niche applications in industries such as turbomachinery, which often require process qualification. Furthermore, leading OEMs in these industries often have their own in-house printing capabilities. For the remaining inde-pendent contractor printing market, AM printing ser-vice providers must have a close connection with the target application and the financial strength to carry

Market outlook

out process development and acquire the necessary certificates from regulatory authorities.

Therefore, the number of small printing service providers with little specialization is expected to decrease in the future. Such a trend has already been evident in many recent M&A activities and in the numerous strategic partnerships between application industries and AM printing service providers.

Furthermore, AM market participants also ex-pect a consolidation of AM machine original equip-ment manufacturers (OEMs). The number of AM ma-chine OEMs has been rising steadily, resulting in a fragmented market with few established standards (see graphic p. 11). The number of PBF machine OEMs has increased to 25 in recent years. The number of DED machine OEMs has increased to 16, while the number of BJ machine OEMs is still comparatively low, at only four. Greater competition reduces the profitability of PBF and DED machine OEMs. To strengthen the competitive position, participants in this segment are expected to secure market share, increase synergies and consolidate. In contrast, a small increase in the number of machine OEMs is expected in the binder jetting market, which has few competitors.

T I M F E M M E R , S E N I O R C O N S U LTA N T

"PBF growth is not yet great enough to meet the revenue demand of 20+ machine OEMs – this calls for consolidation."


Machinemanufacturers

Number of metal AM machine manufacturing OEMs for PBF, DED and BJ, reported through 2018,

market estimates from 2019 through 2023

20

30

2008 2013 2018 2023

BJ

DED

PBF

Roland BergerAdditive manufacturing

# AM machine manufacturers

10

11

Contact details

Dr.-Ing. Bernhard [email protected]+49 160 744-6143

Dr.-Ing. Markus MöhrleSenior Project [email protected]+49 160 744-2148

Dr.-Ing. Tim FemmerSenior [email protected]+49 160 744-2254

Peter SchildbachSenior [email protected]+49 160 744-6165

Dr. rer. nat. Alexander [email protected]+49 160 744-6138

Max [email protected]+49 160 744-2967

Additive manufacturing on the brink of industrializationMetal additive manufacturing is reaching the industrialization stage. Companies must stay on top of new developments and include them in their technology roadmaps.

Publisher

ROLAND BERGER GMBH

Sederanger 180538 MunichGermany+49 89 9230-0

www.rolandberger.com

This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to any information provided in this

publication without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH shall not be liable for any damages resulting from any use

of the information contained in the publication. © 2019 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Phot

os: R

olan

d Be

rger

Gm

bH

http://www.rolandberger.com

https://www.rolandberger.com/de/Publications/Additive-Manufacturing-on-the-brink-of-industrialization.html

Documents

Additive manufacturing - Roland Berger