© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 A summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market Data to 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel

KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12TH JUNE 2011

A summary Update of the Irish Grocery MarketData to 12th June 2011



Grocery Performance Summary

•The 52 week market value sales have turned around and is showing growth of

+1.1% year on year. The latest quarter shows market value growth at +0.9% year

on year.

•Price inflation continues to bring value into the market but shoppers cut back on

volume bought.

•Shoppers continue to battle price inflation by reducing spend by trading down to

a cheaper product, shopping in cheaper stores, buying on promotion or buying

own label products.



HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? The grocery market has returned to 52 week growth, with short terms sales ahead of last year

€9,405,523€8,833,805 €8,928,577

€2,139,900 €2,028,262 €2,047,116

52 w/e 14Jun 09

52 w/e 13Jun 10

52 w/e 12Jun 11

12 w/e 14Jun 09

12 w/e 13Jun 10

12 w/e 12Jun 11

52 we €000’s

-6.1% +1.1%

12 we €000’s

-5.2% +0.9%


HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E The market shows 4 week value growth at +1% year on year

692,118

667,541

674,377

4 w/e 14 Jun 09 4 w/e 13 Jun 10 4 w/e 12 Jun 11

4 we €000’s

-3.6%+1.0%

KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 4 W/E 12th June 2011



GROCERY MARKET IN 12 & 4 WEEK GROWTH The grocery market continues in growth over shorter periods

% Value Growth in Total Grocery

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12w/e13Jun10

12w/e

11 Jul10

12w/e08

Aug10

12w/e05Sep10

12w/e03Oct10

12w/e31Oct10

12w/e28

Nov10

12w/e26Dec10

12w/e23Jan11

12w/e20Feb11

12w/e20

Mar11

12w/e17Apr11

12w/e15

May11

12w/e12Jun11

12w/e4w/e



% Markets in Inflation vs Deflation

612w/e 12th June 2011



3.9%

0.9%

-8.78%

-7.69%

-6.59%

-5.49%

-4.39%

-3.29%

-2.20%

-1.10%

0.00%

1.10%

2.20%

3.29%

4.39%

5.49%

6.59%

7.69%

8.78%

9.88%

10.98%

80

78

08

80

98

10

81

18

12

81

39

01

90

29

03

90

49

05

90

69

07

90

89

09

91

09

11

91

29

13

10

01

10

02

10

03

10

04

10

05

10

06

10

07

10

08

10

09

10

10

10

11

10

12

10

13

11

01

11

02

11

03

11

04

11

05

11

06

11

07

% c

ha

ng

e

Inflation Value

TOTAL GROCERY MARKET 12w VALUE GROWTH & INFLATION? ROI grocery market has seen price inflation ahead of value sales growth

12w/e 12th June 2011



No of Trips per Household

58.3 58.3

12 w/e 13 Jun 10 12 w/e 12 Jun 11

Spend per Trip

€22.00 €21.50

12 w/e 13 Jun 10 12 w/e 12 Jun 11

Average Spend per Household

€1,285 €1,254

12 w/e 13 Jun 10 12 w/e 12 Jun 11

SHOPPERS ARE MAKING THE SAME NUMBER OF TRIPS THIS YEAR, BUT SPENDING 50c LESS ON EACH OCCASION

WHEN COMPARED TO THIS PERIOD LAST YEAR

What has been the Effect on Shopper Behaviour?


How are consumers reducing their spend?

1. Reducing quantity purchased- Less per trip

2. Cheaper Brands/Formats

3. More Own label

4. Promotions

5. Cheaper stores



How are consumers reducing spend?

Spend -2.41%

Volume -1.54% Price paid -0.73%

Trade down -4.75% Inflation +3.88%

Store -0.54% Product /Promo -4.21%

12 w/e 12 Jun 2011

*Slight definitional difference in Price paid



Con

trib

utio

ns o

f C

hang

e %

12w DRIVERS OF TOTAL MARKET PERFORMANCEPrice inflation now at +4% with shoppers reacting by buying more on offer, or trading down to a cheaper option




As shoppers buy less, basket missions gain from trolleys

Trolley

Basket

Destination % o

f gro

cery

spe

nd

2010

58.9%

36.8%

4.3%

2011

57.4%

38.0%

4.5%



% of markets where shoppers are trading up

4237 36 35 33 31 30

43

26 26 28 25 26 25 24 26 27 2833

30 27 28 3136

42 3943

3539

4740 38 37

28

36 3337 37

29 2631

12 w

/e 1

8 M

ay 0

812

w/e

15

Jun

0812

w/e

13

Jun

0812

w/e

10

Aug

0812

w/e

07

Sep

0812

w/e

05

Oct

08

12 w

/e 0

2 N

ov 0

812

w/e

30

Nov

08

12 w

/e 2

8 D

ec 0

812

w/e

25

Jan

0912

w/e

22

Feb

0912

w/e

22

Mar

09

12 w

/e 1

9 Ap

r 09

12 w

/e 1

7 M

ay 0

912

w/e

14

Jun

0912

w/e

12

Jul 0

912

w/e

09

Aug

0912

w/e

6 S

ep 0

912

w/e

4 O

ct 0

912

w/e

01

Nov

09

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov 0

912

w/e

27

Dec

09

12 w

/e 2

5 Ja

n 10

12

w/e

21

Feb

10

12

w/e

21

Mar

10

12

w/e

18

Apri

l 10

12

w/e

16

May

10

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

ne 1

012

w/e

11

July

10

12 w

/e 8

Aug

10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

pt 1

012

w/e

03

Oct

10

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

012

w/e

28

Nov

10

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

012

w/e

23

Jan

1112

w/e

20

Feb

1112

w/e

20

Mar

11

12 w

/e 1

7 Ap

r 11

12 w

/e 1

5 M

ay 1

112

w/e

12

Jun

11


Shoppers are trading down in 69% of markets to a cheaper format



32.4 32

.8 3333

.333

.132

.932

.432

32.6 33

33.5

33.2

32.9

33 32.9

32.9

32.8 33

.233

.1 33.3

32.9 33

.4 3434

.934

.934

.834

.8

12 w

/e 14

Jun

0912

w/e

12 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 09

Aug

0912

w/e

06 Se

p 09

12 w

/e 04

Oct

0912

w/e

01 N

ov 09

12 w

/e 29

Nov

0912

w/e

27 D

ec 0

912

w/e

24 Ja

n 10

12 w

/e 21

Feb

1012

w/e

21 M

ar 1

012

w/e

18 A

pr 1

012

w/e

16 M

ay 10

12 w

/e 13

Jun

1012

w/e

11 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 08

Aug

1012

w/e

05 Se

p 10

12 w

/e 03

Oct

1012

w/e

31 O

ct 10

12 w

/e 28

Nov

1012

w/e

26 D

ec 1

012

w/e

23 Ja

n 11

12 w

/e 20

Feb

1112

w/e

20 M

ar 1

112

w/e

17 A

pr 1

112

w/e

15 M

ay 11

12 w

/e 12

Jun

11

% Value share

Private Label Value Share of Grocery

12w PRIVATE LABEL VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL GROCERY MARKETPrivate label value share is at 35% of market sales, and has not dropped back after the new year pickup




Grocery Packs Growth by Private Label TierBudget private label products see an increase in Pack sales

39.3

24.6

1.82.2

32.2

12 w/e 12 Jun 11

Standard PL

Value PL

Premium

No BrandName

Branded

Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)

1.1

-5.5

4.4 4.0

10.4

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

AllPurchases

Branded Premium PL Standard PL Value PL

Change in salesShare of sales



83.6 84.5 85.8

16.4 15.5 14.2


No Offer On Offer

TOTAL GROCERY – 52w % PERCEIVED PACKS SOLD ON DEAL Although promotional activity has slowed slightly, consumers still choose to buy 14% of their grocery volume on deal



PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR% Value sold on deal remaining steady this period

19.1 19.018.5

19.0 19.119.7 19.5

19.118.4 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.6

17.0 17.0 17.117.8 17.9 17.7

17.216.7 17.0 17.0 17.1

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 Au

g 09

12 w

/e 0

6 Se

p 09

12 w

/e 0

4 O

ct 0

9

12 w

/e 0

1 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

9

12 w

/e 2

4 Ja

n 10

12 w

/e 2

1 Fe

b 10

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0

12 w

/e 1

8 Ap

r 10

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 1

1 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 0

8 Au

g 10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

p 10

12 w

/e 0

3 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 2

8 N

ov 1

0

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

12 w

/e 2

3 Ja

n 11

12 w

/e 2

0 Fe

b 11

12 w

/e 2

0 M

ar 1

1

12 w

/e 1

7 Ap

r 11

12 w

/e 1

5 M

ay 1

1

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

n 11

17

% Value €




PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR

16.716.2

15.614.8

15.3 15.616.0 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.2

15.6 15.5 15.515.0

14.514.0 13.9 14.0

14.4 14.6 14.7 14.414.0 14.1 14.1 14.2

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

12 w

/e 1

4 Ju

n 09

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

l 09

12 w

/e 0

9 Au

g 09

12 w

/e 0

6 Se

p 09

12 w

/e 0

4 O

ct 0

9

12 w

/e 0

1 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

9 N

ov 0

9

12 w

/e 2

7 D

ec 0

9

12 w

/e 2

4 Ja

n 10

12 w

/e 2

1 Fe

b 10

12 w

/e 2

1 M

ar 1

0

12 w

/e 1

8 Ap

r 10

12 w

/e 1

6 M

ay 1

0

12 w

/e 1

3 Ju

n 10

12 w

/e 1

1 Ju

l 10

12 w

/e 0

8 Au

g 10

12 w

/e 0

5 Se

p 10

12 w

/e 0

3 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 3

1 O

ct 1

0

12 w

/e 2

8 N

ov 1

0

12 w

/e 2

6 D

ec 1

0

12 w

/e 2

3 Ja

n 11

12 w

/e 2

0 Fe

b 11

12 w

/e 2

0 M

ar 1

1

12 w

/e 1

7 Ap

r 11

12 w

/e 1

5 M

ay 1

1

12 w

/e 1

2 Ju

n 11

18

% Packs Sold on Deal in Total Grocery,




3.7 2.9 2.4

0.80.6

0.4

8.38.2

6.9

2.7

2.7

3.5

0.91.0

0.9


Extra Free Banded/Special Pack Money Off Multi-Buy Other Offer

TOTAL GROCERY – 52w % PERVEIVED PACKS SOLD ON DEAL – PROMO TYPEPickup in MultiBuy packs this year, but less Money off and Extra Free promotions



Grocery Sector Analysis - Summary



TOTAL FOOD YEARLY AND QUARTERLY SALESThe food market comes back into positive growth vs the same time last year

7,416,232 7,025,559 7,135,969

1,715,266 1,628,385 1,657,011

52 w/e 14Jun 09

52 w/e 13Jun 10

52 w/e 12Jun 11

12 w/e 14Jun 09

12 w/e 13Jun 10

12 w/e 12Jun 11

52 we €000’s

-5.3% 1.6%

12 we €000’s

-5.1% 1.8%




HOW IS THE FOOD MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS? % VALUE GROWTH VS LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY TRENDED

2.2 1.51.7

1.81.70.6

2.02.3

3.0

1.9

0.5-0.8

-3.0

-5.1-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

12 w/e 13Jun 10

12 w/e 11Jul 10

12 w/e 08Aug 10

12 w/e 05Sep 10

12 w/e 03Oct 10

12 w/e 31Oct 10

12 w/e 28Nov 10

12 w/e 26Dec 10

12 w/e 23Jan 11

12 w/e 20Feb 11

12 w/e 20Mar 11

12 w/e 17Apr 11

12 w/e 15May 11

12 w/e 12Jun 11

Total food




WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET RETURN TO GROWTH? Ambient and Fresh foods are driving market performance this period

7.3 7.11.4 1.36.8 6.54.3 4.1

26.4 27.4

48.7 48.5

5.2 5

12 w/e 13 Jun 10 12 w/e 12 Jun 11

Value share Value change

1

-2

-3

-3

-2

5

1

-4

Total Grocery

Alcohol

Healthcare

Household & Petcare

Toiletries

Ambient Food

Fresh & Chilled Food

Frozen Food




UK Overview &

Consumer coping strategies.


25

GROWTH AND INFLATIONGrowth plateaus creating a divergence from inflation

4.4%

4.6%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

5%

5%

13

Ju

n 1

0

11

Ju

l 10

08

Au

g 1

0

05

Se

p 1

0

03

Oct

10

31

Oct

10

28

No

v 1

0

26

De

c 1

0

23

Ja

n 1

1

20

Fe

b 1

1

20

Ma

r 1

1

17

Ap

r 1

1

15

Ma

y 1

1

12

Ju

n 1

1

% c

ha

ng

e

Market Growth InflationGrocery (RST) 12we 12 June 2011 (KWP P7)



Trading-up and Trading-down StrategiesShoppers manage their spend mainly by promotions.

-0.3-0.6-0.10.2

3.84.6

Inflation HH VolumeChange

Store Choice PromotionChoice

Product Choice HH SpendChange

con

trib

utio

n t

o c

ha

ng

e %

pts

Grocery (RST) 12we 12 June 2011 (KWP P7)



UK Grocery Packs Growth by Price BrandUK also continue to see rise in budget pack sales as they trade down from standard and Good options

25.95

21.58

31.58

12.07

8.82

Share

SuperPremium

Premium

Good

Standard

Budget

Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)

1.0

13.2

-2.5

-6.3

3.62.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

AllPurchases

Budget Standard Good Premium SuperPremium

Change in sales Share of sales

12 W/e 12 Jun 11

MARKET VIEW - UKKANTAR WORLDPANEL

– MARKET TRENDS

– Market growth levels now at 4.4%, just behind inflation at 4.6%

– Inflation rate at 4.6% for this period, is due to an increase in the number of markets displaying inflation within 5-10% range (rather than a few markets in the double digit range). In particular, alcohol and cereal dependent markets have seen significant rises. These latest rises mean we now anticipate inflation rising towards 5%.

– The growth in budget sales indicate shoppers choosing to buy cheaper products. The inexorable growth in promotions is showing signs of slowing, though it is still the most significant factor driving change in shoppers’ choice.

Documents

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 A summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market Data to 12 th June 2011