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Timeboxes in a New Paradigm of Behavior Modeling

Barclay Brown, ESEPIBMbarclayb@us.ibm.com

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Behavior

Behavior of organizations and systems is modeled in various ways

Behavior refers to the activities of organizations and technological systems, and their interactions

What is referred to as behavior here has also been described as: Organizational behavior Business processes System functional flow Activity Flow Task procedures Use case flow of events Operational scenarios Concept of Operations (CONOPS)

Organization

Organization

System

System

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Two Paradigms

Two primary paradigms, the process paradigm and the systems paradigm. Process paradigm: behavior is described in processes, which

consist of sequences of activities. Systems paradigm, behavior is described as sequences of activities

and interactions between systems, sub-systems and users, in order to achieve a user goal.

New Energy Policy

Process Claim Form

Detect Target

Order a Book

Online

Brighten Screen

in Sunlight

Levels of Abstraction

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A Personal Example

How to model a life?Processes?

A day in the life Career, family, hobby processes?

Use Cases?

A complex system Complex system interaction Complex systems using technology

“The unexamined [unmodeled?] life is

not worth living” - Socrates

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Key Concept:Time and Sequence

The key to untangling and understanding complex processes is the representation of time.

Time = Past + Present + FutureThe past looks linear, like a timelineThe present looks simultaneous, like a processThe future looks timeboxed, like a plan

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Past, Present and Future

Past events are easy to see on a linear timeline (we know when they happened)

A process can be seen as happening now, in the present (but of course this isn’t really true—the present is of infinitesimally short duration, so nothing actually happens in the present)

The future really contains processes contained in timeboxes

TIMELINE

PRESENT

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PAST FUTURE

PRESENT

An Example: he Heart’s Past, Present and Future

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Timelines: A natural view of time

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/space-shuttle-retirement-timeline/

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Timeboxes• Boxes of time• Have start time, end time and duration

– Any or all of these may be unknown

• All start/end dates/times are ranges– 11/11/13 means the 24 hour period starting at midnight– 3:05pm means the 60 second period starting 3:05:00 (or

3:04:31?) – Q2 means the 90 day period beginning April 1.

• Durations ideally also include uncertainty– Best case: 2 hours– Worst case: 5 hours– Most likely case: 3 hours– Triangular distribution used to express estimates

• Actual outcome has skewed distribution (more often late then early)

• Timeboxes “connect” to each other only in time

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Timebox Examples

RFP Response Q2-Q3

Q2 Q3

July 1, 00:00:00

Sep 30, 23:59:59

Implement Interface by Friday

? Friday

2-4 hours

Timeboxes on a timeline

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Timeboxes with Timelines Examples (cont’d)

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Ongoing Processes

Indeterminate start, end and duration

Shows relative time positioning

Allows for zooming in and out in modeling tools

ABSTRACT TIMELINE

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Nesting/Recursion in Timeboxes

A timebox may contain other timeboxes

A timebox may contain a timeline or not. If a timebox does contain a timeline, the timeline must synchronize with all other timelines If it does not, then contained timeboxes are simply grouped and assumed to all occur

within the interval of the containing timebox.

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Benefits of Timeboxes in Behaviour modelling

Processes can be shown in relation to the passage of time, without committing individual process elements to specific points in time.

Iterative and conditional process flows can be shown where they are planned to occur in time, without reducing them to a series of specific events and activities.

Processes can be shown as related to each other in time without implying causal relationships and direct connections.

The difference between past, present and future events and activities, is incorporated in a single model. Planned (future) activities flow seamlessly into the past as uncertainty is eliminated.

Enough information about the uncertainty of timing is included that overall behavioural models can be constructed and simulated using Monte Carlo and other simulation techniques.

Variable precision--start, end and duration times can be expressed in scales of seconds, minutes, days, months or years. (Zooming in and out in time can be automated in graphical tools.)

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