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The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland ESEP Seminar Fraserburgh Lighthouse Museum 29 September 2003

The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland ESEP Seminar Fraserburgh Lighthouse Museum 29 September 2003

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The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland

ESEP SeminarFraserburgh Lighthouse

Museum29 September 2003

Presentation

• the ESEP labour market service• defining the rural area• review of economic and labour

market data

ESEP labour market service

• launched January 2002 • labour market information service for ESEP

and its partners• principal output - major annual report:

www.esep.co.uk

• ad hoc reports and services: ERDF/ESF-funded community development

projects strategic sector profiles

• autumn seminars

East of Scotland Programme Area

Defining “rural”

• open land/primary products/rural landscapes

• higher share of employment/GDP in agriculture and primary industries

• fewer large firms: more self-employment and micro-businesses

• sparse population/distance from major centres

Source: Cabinet Office

East of Scotland rural areas

• Aberdeenshire• Angus• Moray• Perth & Kinross• Stirling• …but that’s not the extent of it

– Clackmannanshire– Fife– Lothians

Rural Scotland

insert rural Scotland map

Degrees of rurality

• suburbia• city fringe• rurban commuter belt• accessible countryside• deep rural areas

– market towns– seaside resorts– industrial towns and villages

Scotland: urban-rural classification

insert 6-fold classification map

East of Scotland Objective 2/3 Programmes

• Priority 1 Strategic economic development– 1.1 SMEs– 1.2 Risk capital– 1.3 Technology/knowledge transfer

• Priority 2 Strategic locations & sectors– 2.1 Locations– 2.2 Locations and sectors

• Priority 3 Community economic development– 3.1 Community engagement and capacity building– 3.2 Social infrastructure– 3.3 Thematic community development

• Objective 3– Measure 2.3 Rural exclusion

The statistics

• the five Council areas compared:– with each other– with the rest of the Programme area– with rural Scotland– with Scotland

• health warning!

Population change 1991-2011

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

104%

1991 2001 2011

Source: General Registrar's Office

Ind

ex

sc

ale

19

91

=1

00

SCOTLAND ESEP Rural ESEP Rural Scotland

Population change 1991-2011

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

1991 2001 2011

Source: General Registrar's Office

Ind

ex

sc

ale

19

91

=1

00

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perth & Kinross Stirling

The 10 towns: population change 1991-2001

1%

8%

4%

10%

5%

1%1%

-3% -3%-3%

14%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Ba

nff

Ma

cd

uff

Inv

eru

rie

Ca

rno

us

tie

Mo

ntr

os

e

Elg

in

Ke

ith

Pe

rth

Pit

loc

hry

Sti

rlin

g

Ca

llan

de

r

Source: General Registrar's Office

Demographic change

• population growth in rural EoS outstrips rest of Scotland

• growth in the accessible countryside outstrips remote areas

• strong growth in:– Elgin, Inverurie, small cities

• decline in:– Banff, Keith, Montrose

Employee jobs change 1996-2001 (%)

10%9%

6%5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Employee jobs change 1996-2001(%)

-3%

10%

7%

13%15%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perth & Kinross Stirling

Source: Annual Employment Survey/Annual Business Inquiry

Employee jobs change by type, 1996-2001(%)

9%8%

4%3%

13%11% 11%

10%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP Rural LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Annual Employment Survey/Annual Business Inquiry

Full-time workers Part-time workers

Employee jobs change by type, 1996-2001(%)

0%

5%3% 4%

14%

-9%

19%15%

31%

15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perth and Kinross Stirling

Source: Annual Employment Survey/Annual Business Inquiry

Full-time workers Part-time workers

Full & part time employment, working age, 2001 (%)

77%

23%

77%

23%

79%

21%

77%

23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Local Labour Force SurveyFull-time Part-time

Full & part time employment, working age, 2001(%)

79%

21%

79%

21%

84%

16%

78%

22%

78%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire & Kinross Stirling

Source: Local Labour Force Survey Full-time Part-time

Male & female, % change in employee job

numbers, 1996-2001

9%

6%

3% 3%

11%

9%10%

8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Annual Employment Survey/Annual Business Inquiry

Female employee jobs Male employee jobs

Male & female, % change in employee jobs, 1996-2001

-12%

10%

6%

12% 12%

7%9% 9%

12%

18%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire & Kinross Stirling

Source: Annual Employment Survey/Annual Business Inquiry

Female employee jobs Male employee jobs

Employment trends• employment growth 96-01 slower in rural

areas than urban– east held back by Aberdeenshire figures

• strong employment growth in Stirling and Perth & Kinross– mostly in the cities?

• growth in P/T employment in P&K and Moray– but Moray still has low P/T employment

• strong increase in male employment– especially in Stirling

Agricultural workforce, Scotland, 1982-2002

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Source: Census of Agriculture, Scottish Executive

Full-time Part-time Casual and seasonal

1982 Total

76,2952002 Total

68,301

Forth Valley 8% Lothian

11% Fife 10%

Tayside 25%

NE Scotland* 46%

Source: Scottish Executive Agricultural Census (June 2002). Total agricultural employment: 26,100 (38% Scottish total). * NE Scotland comprises Grampian and Moray

Distribution of Agricultural Employment, 2002 (%)

Fishermen employed on Scottish based vessels, 1996-

2000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Source: Scottish Fisheries Statistics

Regularly employed Irregularly employed

Fisheries employment by district & type, 2000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Eyem

ou

th

Pit

ten

weem

Ab

erd

een

Pete

rhead

Fra

serb

urg

h

Bu

ckie

Scr

ab

ster

Ork

ney

Sh

etl

an

d

Sto

rnow

ay

Kin

loch

berv

ie

Loch

inver

Ull

ap

ool

Mall

aig

Port

ree

Ob

an

Cam

pb

elt

ow

n

Ayr

Source: Scotish Fisheries Statistics 2000

Regularly employed Irregularly employed

Agriculture and fishing• long-term decline in agricultural

workforce– big shift from f/t to p/t– 26,000 employed in EoS– of which 46% Grampian/Moray, 25% Tayside

• sharp decline in Scottish fisheries employment to <7,000– Fraserburgh top with 1,200– Peterhead 600– Buckie 400

Company base by firm size

Rural ESEP

0%

83%

14%3%

Scotland

4%

79%

1%

16%

1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50-199 employees 200+ employees

Employment by firm sizeESEP rural LAs

30%

25%

19%

26%

Scotland

25%

25%

31%

19%

1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50-199 employees 200 or more employees

Change in company stock by size, 1996-2001(%)

-6%

18%16%

-9%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50-199 employees 200+ employees

Source: Annual Employee Survey/Annual Business Inquiry

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Agri

cult

ure

, hunti

ng &

fore

str

y Fis

hin

g

Min

ing &

quarr

yin

g

Manufa

cturi

ng

Ele

ctri

city

, gas &

wate

rsupply

Constr

uct

ion

Whole

sale

/reta

il t

rade;

repair,

etc

Hote

ls &

resta

ura

nts

Transport

, sto

rage &

com

munic

ati

on

Fin

anci

al

inte

rmedia

tion

Real

esta

te,r

enti

ng,b

usin

ess

act

ivit

ies

Public

adm

in/d

efe

nce

;soci

al secu

rity

Educa

tion

Healt

h &

soci

al w

ork

Oth

er

com

munit

y,soci

al/pers

onal serv

ice

Source: Annual Business Inquiry/Annual Employment Survey

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Employee job distribution by sector, 2001 (%)

Compared to Scotland, ESEP rural areas have…

• a higher proportion of jobs in– construction– wholesale, retail, repair– hotels and restaurants– health and social work

• a lower proportion of jobs in– financial services– business services

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ag

ricu

ltu

re,

hu

nti

ng

&fo

restr

y Fis

hin

g

Min

ing

& q

uarr

yin

g

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Ele

ctr

icit

y,

gas &

wate

rsu

pp

ly

Con

str

ucti

on

Wh

ole

sale

/reta

il t

rad

e;

rep

air,

etc

Hote

ls &

resta

ura

nts

Tra

nsp

ort

, sto

rag

e &

com

mu

nic

ati

on

Fin

an

cia

lin

term

ed

iati

on

Real

esta

te,r

en

tin

g,b

usin

ess

acti

vit

ies

Pu

blic a

dm

in/d

efe

nce;

socia

l secu

rity

Ed

ucati

on

Healt

h &

socia

l w

ork

Oth

er

com

mu

nit

y,

socia

l/p

ers

on

al serv

ice

Source: Annual Business Inquiry/Annual Employment Survey

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perth & Kinross Stirling

Employee job distribution by sector, 2001 (%)

Differences between rural areas

• P&K and Stirling have:– much less manufacturing– more wholesale/retail and hotel/rest and

financial services

• Aberdeenshire has:– more construction and business services

• Moray has:– more education

• Angus has:– more health and social work

Sector performance/regional share (Scotland)

Employment Analysis Scotland: Local Share (2001), National Trends (1998-2001)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Manufacturing Agriculture, hunting and forestry

Public admin, defence, social security

Mining and quarrying3.7/- 3%

Financial intermediation

Electricity, gas and water supply

Real estate, renting, business activities

Transport, storage and communication Health and social work

Hotels and restaurants

Education

Community, social/personal services

ConstructionWholesale/retail trade: repair, etc

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that are well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are not well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that are not well

represented in rural ESEP

Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizintal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0) indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)

All sector average

ESEP Employment Analysis: Local share (2001), National Trends (1998-2001)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Agriculture, hunting and forestry

Manufacturing

Public admin, defence, social security

Mining and quarrying (6/-3%)

Financial intermediation

Electricity, gas and water supply

Real estate, renting, business activities

Transport, storage and communication

Health and social work

Hotels and restaurants

Education

Community, social / personal services

ConstructionWholesale/retail trade: repair, etc

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that

are well represented in urban ESEP

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that are not well represented in

urban ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are not

well represented in urban ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are well represented in

urban ESEP

Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizintal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0) indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)

All sector average

Sector performance/regional share (East of Scotland)

Sector performance/regional share (5 rural areas)

Employment Analysis Rural ESEP: Local Share (2001), National Trends (1998-2001)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Manufacturing Agriculture, hunting and forestry

Public admin, defence, social securityMining and quarrying

Financial intermediation

Electricity, gas and water supply

Real estate, renting, business activities

Transport, storage and communication

Health and social work

Hotels and restaurants

Education

Community, social/personal services

Construction

Wholesale/retail trade: repair, etc

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that are well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are not well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that are not well

represented in rural ESEP

Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizintal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0) indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)

All sector average

The shape of the East of Scotland rural economy

• well-represented growth sectors– personal services, education, health/social,

hotel/catering, construction, wholesale/retail

• under-represented growth sectors– business services, financial services, transport/comm

• over-represented declining sectors– public admin, extractive, agriculture, fishing

• under-represented declining industries– manufacturing

• low-wage industries• public sector and caring• weak in tradeable services• doesn’t include most agri/fishing• big local variations

Sector performance/regional share (Scotland rural areas)

Employment Analysis Rural Scotland: Local Share (2001), National Trends (1998-2001)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Manufacturing

Agriculture, hunting and forestry

Public admin, defence, social security Mining and quarrying

Financial intermediation

Electricity, gas and water supply

Real estate, renting, business activities

Transport, storage and communication Health and social work

Hotels and restaurants

EducationCommunity, social/personal services

ConstructionWholesale/retail trade: repair, etc

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that are well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB job loss sectors that are not well

represented in rural ESEP

In this quadrant…GB growth sectors that are not well

represented in rural ESEP

Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizintal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0) indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)

All sector average

Change in VAT registered businesses, 1996-2001 (%)

0.3%

-0.3%

2.5%

0.8%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Office of National Statistics

Change in VAT registered businesses, 1996-2001 (%)

-1.7%

-3.3%

9.2%

0.2%

-0.4%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire & Kinross Stirling

Source: Office of National Statistics

Change in number of self employed, 1997-2003 (%)

3% 5% 4%

-7%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Labour Force Survey - figures based on a rolling average.

Change 97-00 Change 00-03 Change 97-03

Self employed as % of all in employment, 1997-

2003

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Labour Force Survey (Figures based on a rolling average of previous quarters)

year to May 97 year to May 03

Employment by occupation

Rural ESEP17%

9%

9%

10%

12%

11%

8%

9%

10%

5%Scotland

14%

10%

10%

13%

11%

12%

8%

9%

9%

5%

14%10%10%13%11%12%

8%9%9%5%managers & administr professional assoc prof & tech clerical

craft & related personal & protect selling plant & machine

other unskilled

Employment by occupation, change 1996-

2000 (%)

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

managers &administr

professional assoc prof &tech

clerical craft &related

personal &protect

selling plant &machine

other unskilled

Source: Labour Force Survey. Figures given are based on a rolling average.

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Employment by occupation, rural ESEP, change1996-2000

(%)

21%

-6%

13%

-7%-13%

6% 6% 6%

-16%-20%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

managers &administr

professional assoc prof &tech

clerical craft &related

personal &protect

selling plant &machine

other unskilled

Source: Labour Force Survey. Figures given are based on a rolling average.

Occupational mix

• labour force composition in line with Scotland

• change 1996-2000 patchy, but EoS has seen:– strong growth in managerial/professional/

technician– sharp decline in craft and unskilled jobs

Average gross weekly wage,

1999-2002 (£/%)

£0

£50

£100

£150

£200

£250

£300

£350

£400

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: New Earnings Survey

1999 2002

14%

13%15%

16%

Average gross weekly wage,1999-2002 (£/%)

£0

£50

£100

£150

£200

£250

£300

£350

£400

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire &Kinross

Stirling

Source: New Earnings Survey

1999 2002

19% 26%12%

6%6%

Average earnings

• EoS 5 lag behind urban Scotland– no sign of gap closing

• earnings significantly higher in accessible countryside than remote

Economic activity rates, working age, 1996-2001

(%)

82%84%81%79%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Local Labour Force Survey (Office of National Statistics)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Economic activity rates, working age, 1996-2001

(%)

84% 86% 83% 85%78%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire & Kinross Stirling

Source: Local Labour Force Survey (Office of National Statistics)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

The 10 towns: economic activity rates, aged 16-74,

2001(%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ba

nff

Ma

cd

uff

Inv

eru

rie

Ca

rno

us

tie

Mo

ntr

os

e

Elg

in

Ke

ith

Pe

rth

Pit

loc

hry

Sti

rlin

g

Ca

llan

de

r

Source: Census 2001

Scottish average

Economic activity

• activity rates in the EoS 5 higher than in urban areas– …except Stirling– local variations

• unemployment rates consistently low– especially in remote rural areas

Change in number of claimants, June 1984-03 (%)

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

year

to J

une 8

4

year

to J

une 8

6

year

to J

une 8

8

year

to J

une 9

0

year

to J

une 9

2

year

to J

une 9

4

year

to J

une 9

6

year

to J

une 9

8

year

to J

une 0

0

year

to J

une 0

2

Ind

ex s

cale

Ju

ne

1984

=100

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Claimant count rate as proportion of working age residents, 1998-2003

(%)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jul-

98

Sep-9

8

Nov-9

8

Jan-9

9

Mar-

99

May-9

9

Jul-

99

Sep-9

9

Nov-9

9

Jan-0

0

Mar-

00

May-0

0

Jul-

00

Sep-0

0

Nov-0

0

Jan-0

1

Mar-

01

May-0

1

Jul-

01

Sep-0

1

Nov-0

1

Jan-0

2

Mar-

02

May-0

2

Jul-

02

Sep-0

2

Nov-0

2

Jan-0

3

Mar-

03

May-0

3

Jul-

03

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Change in number of claimants, June 1984-03 (%)

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

year

to J

une 8

4

year

to J

une 8

6

year

to J

une 8

8

year

to J

une 9

0

year

to J

une 9

2

year

to J

une 9

4

year

to J

une 9

6

year

to J

une 9

8

year

to J

une 0

0

year

to J

une 0

2

Ind

ex

sc

ale

Ju

ne

19

84

=1

00

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire & Kinross Stirling

Claimant count rate as proportion of working age residents, 1998-

2003 (%)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Jul-

98

Sep-9

8

Nov-9

8

Jan-9

9

Mar-

99

May-9

9

Jul-

99

Sep-9

9

Nov-9

9

Jan-0

0

Mar-

00

May-0

0

Jul-

00

Sep-0

0

Nov-0

0

Jan-0

1

Mar-

01

May-0

1

Jul-

01

Sep-0

1

Nov-0

1

Jan-0

2

Mar-

02

May-0

2

Jul-

02

Sep-0

2

Nov-0

2

Jan-0

3

Mar-

03

May-0

3

Jul-

03

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire & Kinross Stirling

Qualifications levels, working age, 2001(%)

14%13%14%17%

8%8%8%7%

12%11%10%10%

15%15%13%13%

14%13%15%

15%

27%29%29%27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Scotland ESEP Local authorities ESEP RURAL LAs Rural Scotland LAs

Source: Local Area Labour Force Survey

% with NVQ4+

% with NVQ3

% with NVQ2

% with TradeApprenticeships

% with otherqualifications

% with noqualifications

School exam results, 2001

87%76%

84% 79% 80% 77%

29% 25% 23% 28% 30%22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire &Kinross

Stirling Scotland

Source: Scottish Executive

% gaining 3+ awards at level 6 or better (S5) % gaining 5+ awards at level 4 or better (S4)

School leavers’ destinations, 2001 (%)

32% 32%37% 36%

20% 21%

23%20%

6% 4%

3%4%

23% 24%

24% 24%

16% 15%11% 12%

3% 4% 3% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Scotland ESEP LAs Rural ESEP Rural Scotland

% whosedestinations areunknown

% who have otherknowndestinations

% enteringemployment

% enteringtraining

% entering full-time furthereducation

% entering full-time highereducation

School leavers’ destinations, 2001 (%)

41%34% 31%

40% 36%

25%30%

23%

17%14%

4%

2%3%

7%

24% 17%32% 25%

22%

7% 13% 10% 12% 18%

3% 2% 3% 4% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aberdeenshire Angus Moray Perthshire &Kinross

Stirling

% whosedestinations areunknown

% who have otherknowndestinations

% enteringemployment

% enteringtraining

% entering full-time furthereducation

% entering full-time highereducation

School qualifications, 2001

%S4 gaining 5+ awards at level 4 or better

School qualifications, 2001

%S5 gaining 3+ awards at level 6

Summing up

• on the face of it, the rural economy is less different than you might expect

• …there is still a divide between remote and accessible rural areas

• …and an east-west divide – rural and urban

• digging deeper, there are issues about:– industry structure– self-employment– manual jobs– low wages– high activity rates/low unemployment– rural poverty

Commentary

Professor Mark ShucksmithArkleton Centre for Rural

Development,University of Aberdeen

Commentary

• what are the forces underlying these trends, and what will they be in future?

• how do these trends relate to deprivation and social exclusion?

• low incomes, low pay, unemployment• barriers to labour market inclusion?• some issues for discussion

Forces for change - markets

• globalisation of production and moves towards flexible specialisation and the new economy: how does this affect rural areas?

• global capital or local capital?• future prosperity reflects, perhaps,

– sense of regional identity and social cohesion

– entrepreneurial climate– level of education– attractive cultural and natural environment

Conceptualising social exclusion & inclusion

• “exclusion is an idea which poses the right kind of questions.” (Donnison 1998)

• a dynamic, multi-dimensional process• the “intersection of history and biography”

What are the processes by which individuals or groups gain resources (economic, social, cultural &

symbolic), and so are integrated into or excluded from participation in our society?

• market processes• bureaucratic (state) processes• associative processes (voluntary)• reciprocal processes (family & friends)

Processes of exclusion & inclusion

How do people become excluded?

How do people gain capacity to act?

Market

ReciprocalAssociative

R ob sonE con om ic

Jon esS oc ia l

P o lsonP o lit ica l

S m ithP res id en t

Authority

High Capacity = Agility with all systems

Example: young people

• young people crucial to sustainability of rural economies and societies: how are they placed?

• markets: crucial importance of labour market• state: education & training; careers guidance;

but also citizenship and participation• voluntary sector: role in providing housing• friends & family: role models; practical support

Workforce with low incomes

• of those on low incomes in rural Britain :– 22% are in employment (18% low paid)– 23% are self-employed (cf. 8% in urban)– 13% are unemployed– 41% are permanently sick (mainly men) or

family carers (mainly women) or other

• we will consider each of these groups in turn

Low pay• low pay is more prevalent in rural areas• furthermore, low pay is also more persistent

in rural areas, even after taking into account other characteristics of the workforce

• low pay in rural areas is associated with education levels, gender, industrial structure and with the typically small size of firm

• agriculture etc and tourism account for 43% of male and 46% of female low pay

• how to provide better-paying jobs?

Unemployment

• unemployment rates were lower in rural areas than non-rural in 1991, but by 1996 there was little difference

• persistent unemployment is less likely in rural areas, except in a few places. spells without work tend to be shorter

• evidence of hidden unemployment• new jobs from within, or from outwith?

Self-employment

• higher proportion of self-employed in rural areas, and much more likely to be poor

• qualitative evidence that people become self-employed in rural areas because of a lack of alternatives rather than because of greater entrepreneurial spirit

• often it is really disguised unemployment• how might self-employed people in rural

areas be encouraged to grow businesses?

Detachment from labour markets

• 41% of poor people of working age in rural areas are long-term sick, family carers, etc

• other research has drawn attention to a substantial number of males in their 50s who expect never to work again: how might they contribute to rural society and economy?

• the role of women carers has been less well researched : to what extent are they making up for deficiencies of rural care services ? should this not be rewarded as ‘work’ ?

Barriers to labour market participation in rural areas

• ‘word of mouth’ and informal recruitment, and other aspects of employers’ behaviour

• structure of local labour markets - mismatches between jobs and skills.

• accessibility between home and workplace - the fundamental importance of transport

• the costs of participating in the labour market (car, childcare, benefits foregone, etc)

Childcare in rural areas

• most common strategies are to work only in school hours, for the spouse to look after the children (and not work, or work shifts), or for a relative to look after the children

• the first is more likely in rural areas, and the other two have grown since 1991

• relative lack of formal childcare provision• fewer use childminders, friends,

neighbours• need for family-friendly employers, for

flexible working, and for more childcare?

Issues for discussion• how to be a core locality with better-paid,

secure, fulfilling employment?• how do we respond to persistent low pay,

low skills, lack of good quality jobs, detachment from labour markets, poverty in self-employment, and unemployment?

• transport, childcare and eldercare issues?• need for demand-side measures, as well

as for the current supply-side initiatives?• are different measures required in rural

areas?