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© 2011 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.© 2011 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.
Our Consulting Philosophy
January, 2011
Dave ButtonVice President
www.strategicbusinessinsights.com
2
SBI’s Consulting Is at the Front End
SBI
Scope Assess Develop Execute Operate
Value Leverage
(Typical Project Management Process)
3
The Future is Uncertain
Analysis, Strategy, and Plans Must Lead to Action
There’s Too Much Information
You Can’t Perform Detailed Analysis on Everything
Look for “Show Stoppers” First
It is Easier to Grow from Current Capabilities than to Jump to “New Horizons”
Don’t Confuse Brainstorming with Analysis
Look for Synergies
Our Philosophy
The Future is Uncertain
5
The Future Is Uncertain and the External Environment is Beyond your Control
• In the face of an uncertain future, the best one can do is— Consider a range of possible external developments
(Scenarios)— Evaluate your options (Strategy Initiatives)— Decide on a course of action (Roadmaps)— Monitor what actually goes on (Intelligence System)— Adjust as appropriate
• Scenario Planning covers the uncertainty surrounding the most important strategic issues governed by the external environment.
6
Scenarios are Designed to Address Uncertainty
• Several different scenarios provide a sound basis for addressing uncertainties in the external environment.
• Single point estimates, including most likely cases, don’t work.
Possible External Environments
Scenario A Scenario B
Scenario C
Single-PointForecast
7
Recent Scenario Engagements
For two different International Electronics Companies• Three scenarios• Strategic initiatives • Corresponding roadmaps
For two different departments in a major Consumer Products Company• Three planning scenarios for each department (Topics and scenario
names confidential)
For SCARD (Society of Chairman of Academic Radiology Departments)• Three planning scenarios
— Socialized Medicine— Entrepreneurialism— Freefall
• Four strategy initiatives selected from a set of twenty
For the National Intelligence Council (NIC)• “Energy Acceleration” scenario for U.S. Climate Change Mitigation
8
Recent Scenario Engagements
For the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)• Three scenarios
— Too Little Too Late?— Green Chaos— Carbon Junkies
• Policy initiatives• Corresponding roadmaps
For a North American Telecommunications Company• Three scenarios• Five strategic initiatives selected from a set of twenty
For an Auto Company• Updated existing scenarios
For a Chemical Company • Three scenarios
— Fractured World— Double Dip— Innovators
Analysis, Strategy, and Plans Must Lead to Action
10
Issues:• Growth
•Markets
• Internal Synergy
Issues:• Growth
•Markets
• Internal Synergy
Strategyand
Action
Strategyand
Action
Evaluate
Analyze
A Wide Variety of Tools Can Be Used to Develop Strategy—Plans Need Action
Expand Perspectives Rank, Sort, and SelectScenarios
A
B
C
D
Strategy Alignment
Strategy Tables
Portfolio Selection
Threats & Opportunities
Critical Success Factors
Strengths & Weakness
Competitor Analysis
Forecasts
Outlooks Driving Forces
Influence Maps
Roadmaps Plans
11
Strategic Roadmaps Cover More Ground than Traditional Plans
“Industry-Level” roadmaps (the landscape)• Display technology, products/services, and other business
information that surrounds the strategy• Are important for understanding competition and
identifying other external developments
Company roadmaps ( pathway or strategy)• Highlight the technologies, functionalities, products,
services, and markets that the company intends to develop• Identify which external developments are critical and need
to be monitored (signposts)
12
“Industry-Level”, “Company” and “Action” Roadmaps Aid Strategy Implementation
“Industry-Level” roadmaps display the overall playing field and participants “Company” roadmaps identify the
specific technologies, functional requirements, and products/services
Services
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
Now 2 Years 5 Years
BusinessConsiderations
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
41 2 3
Pathway MilestoneThis way
Signpost
This wayThis way
A B C
“Action” roadmaps display a set of
prioritized activities
Services
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
BusinessConsiderations
Now 2 Years 5 Years
Need MarketCompetition
A B C
41 2 3
A B C
Additional Analysis
Strategy Description
•••••
B2
Services
Functions/Technologies
BusinessConsiderations(signposts)
Now 5 Years3 Years1 Years
B1B3
B4
P3P1
P5
T4
P2
T6T7
P4
T5T3
T2T1
Example
Priority Actions
There’s Too Much Information
14
Decision Focus
Diverse Information Framework
Customer Priorities
Internet
Sales Channels Chip Manufacturers
Supply Capacity
EnvironmentCost of Goods Sold
Crime and Security
Public Attitudes
Design/CAD Technology
CustomerExperiences
Social Priorities
Competitive Structure
Use of Media
PoliticalLeaders
Work Patterns
Capital
Healthcare
New ProductsTechnology
Education andLearning
ElectronicCommerce
Populations Shifts
Price
New Media Techniques
Health of OECDEconomies
Perceptions of Risk
Privacy
IndustrializationPatterns
Corporate Demographics
Change Leader Attitudes
Value Chains
The Problem Is Making Sense of the Complex External Environment
High ImpactLow
Uncertainty
Imp
ac
t
Uncertainty
High ImpactHigh
Uncertainty
The Trick is to Identify the Most Important Forces and
Drivers
15
Intelligence System Challenges
• Monitor the “right” information• Effectively integrate vast amounts of data in “real time”
— Too much information— Diverse information— Rapidly changing information— Varied sources of information— Distributed expertise— Misinformation
• Add meaning to data in light of strategic focus• Capture unique benefits of human judgment and
perspective• Allow numerous inputs and opinions to be represented
(and not lost)• Make analyses and information sources transparent• Be easy to use for a wide range of users and decision
makers• Clear line of sight to actionable results
16
The Organization
Knowledge Systems Differ from Intelligence Systems
Knowledge systems promote efficiency (doing things well)
Intelligence systems promote effectiveness (doing the right things)
Search Search
Add
• Ask “right” questions
• Search outside of system
• Results
Intelligence System(Analysis)
• Retain “right” information
• Search inside system
Knowledge Base(Information)
You Can’t Perform Detailed Analysis on
Everything
18
Ideas to Commercialization
IdeaGeneration
InitialDescriptions
Rankingand
Selection
Profilingand
Analysis
Business Case
Strategic Roadmap
FundingAction Plan
andExecute
Activities
Number of Ideas
Effort per Idea
Look for “Show Stoppers”
First
20
Companies Want to Turn Good IdeasInto Commercial Businesses
Markets
Products&Services
Technology
Resources
Organization&Governance
Develop BusinessIdentify Opportunities Operate Business Migrate Success
Ideas
Val
ue
Rea
liza
tio
n
Est
ab
lish
ed
Bu
sin
ess
21
Markets
Opportunity Discovery Workshop
Developing New Business is Complicated and Messy
Products&Services
Technology
Resources
Organization&Governance
Targets
Applications
Develop BusinessIdentify Opportunities
Ideas
Value Assessment
Sponsorship and Funding
CustomerAssessment
Launch
Create Organization
Alliances
Champion/Team
IP
1st Sale
ClearValue
Proposition
CompetitiveAssessment
BusinessCase
Product Design
Research and Development
Value Assessment
Establish Business
• ValueProposition
• Strategy
• IP
• Marketing
• Operations
• GovernanceBusiness Model
Profiles
•Markets
•Customers
• Product
• Service
•Competition
• Technology
22
Opportunity Discovery Workshop
Consumer Products Companies Begin with Customer Assessment and Product Design
Markets
Products&Services
Technology
Resources
Organization&Governance
Targets
Applications
Develop BusinessIdentify Opportunities
Ideas
CustomerAssessment
Launch
Create Organization
Alliances
Champion/Team
IP
1st Sale
ClearValue
Proposition
CompetitiveAssessment
BusinessCase
Product Design
Research and Development
Value Assessment
Establish Business
• ValueProposition
• Strategy
• IP
• Marketing
• Operations
• GovernanceBusiness Model
Sponsorship and Funding
Profiles
•Markets
•Customers
• Product
• Service
•Competition
• Technology
23
Opportunity Discovery Workshop
Identify “Show-stoppers” As Early and Cheaply As Possible
Markets
Products&Services
Technology
Resources
Organization&Governance
Targets
Applications
Develop BusinessIdentify Opportunities
Ideas
CustomerAssessment
Profiles
•Markets
•Customers
• Product
• Service
•Competition
• Technology
It is Easier to Grow from Current Capabilities than
to Jump to “New Horizons”
25
New MarketNew Technology
Tec
hn
olo
gie
s New TechnologyExisting Market
Current PortfolioNew Market
Existing Technology
Markets
Opportunity Discovery Moves Companies Beyond Their Current Portfolio
Don’t Confuse Brainstorming with
Analysis
27
The Opportunity Discovery Workshop is an “Orchestrated” Brainstorming Process
Problem Definition and Scope
Generate Ideas technologies/capabilitiesproducts/services, markets/customers
components that go together
Screenbusiness criteria (strategic fit,resources required, etc.)
Select
which are most promising?
Set Objectives
Form Clusters
opportunities to be examined further
Create OpportunityProfiles
Opportunity Discovery Workshop
create background material
Review・xxxxxxxxx・xxxxxxxxx・xxxxxxxxx background information,
objectives, current situation, etc.
・xxxxxxxxx・xxxxxxxxx・xxxxxxxxx
profiles are the basisfor roadmaps
Xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx
Xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx
Xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx
28
Profiles (Analysis) Follows the Workshop
• Following Opportunity Discovery Workshops, opportunity profiles are developed
• Profiles:— are a first-cut description of the opportunity— provide sufficient analysis to determine whether to
pursue the opportunity further— pave the way for next steps such as in-depth market
studies, customer research, and strategic roadmaps
29
Typical Profile Contents
DESCRIPTION• Need• Products/services• Markets• Value chain
NEXT STEPS*• In-depth market study
• Customer research
• Strategic roadmaps* Depends on opportunity characteristics
Business Attractiveness• Potential revenue
• Profitability
• Competition
• Regulations
• Entry barriers
• R&D requirements
• Risk
Key Success Factors• Customers
• Business model
• Product features
• Service required
• Technology
• Channels
• Manufacturing
ANALYSIS
30
Areas in Which Opportunities Have Been Discovered
• Peer-to-peer computing
• Micromachined sensors
• Ceramic materials and implants
• Ceramic and polymer matrix composites
• Nanoparticle applications
• Consumer electronics innovations
• Photoetching and electroforming
• Display technologies
• Thermoelectric devices
• Electronically-commutated motors
• Rapid pathogen testing
• Water and indoor air analysis
• Remote sensing applications
• Heat management
• Thin-film magnetic materials
• Fiberglass insulation and other products
• Ultra-fine iron and graphite fibers
• Laser processing applications
• Value-added consumer products
• Bundled consumer products and services
• E-learning services
• Rapid sensing technologies
• Intermetallic alloy applications
• Powder metallic coatings
• Ultra premium cookware
• Wireless factory displays
• Environmental monitoring for consumers
31
More Areas in Which Opportunities Have Been Discovered
• e-Government services
• Energy optimize adviser
• Media tracking
• Dynamic resource optimization & utilization
• New telecommunication business model
• Traffic system optimization
• Identity management
• Environmental monitoring
• Detection and monitoring for security
• Travel agent service
• Embedded driver training
• Networked/coordinated robots
• Biometric identification for government
• Adaptive teaching
• Micro-business
• Consumer relationship service
• Managing knowledge for workers
• Large area data collection
• Financial services and markets
• Education
• Supper supply chain
• Digital services for public transit users
• Personal situational monitoring
• Novel printing techniques
• Smart packaging
• Digital cross-cultural assistant
Look for Synergies
33
EnvironmentalHealth
and Safety
EnvironmentalHealth
and Safety
CapabilityAlignmentCapabilityAlignment
Corporate R&DFunding
Corporate R&DFunding
TechnologyIntelligenceTechnologyIntelligence
TechnologyVentures
TechnologyVentures
ProjectManagement
Process
ProjectManagement
Process
Strategy Processand Model
Strategy Processand Model
KnowledgeManagementKnowledge
Management
Technology/Business Strategies
Technology/Business Strategies
Performance Improvement Came from a Unique Set of Overlapping Programs
34
Technology Concept Matrix
LEGEND: Gray boxes show the intersections between individual technology concepts and the products/services they support. Multicolored boxes show the strategy initiative(s) for which a product/service is a component.
Yellow highlighting indicates a technology concept that has high leverage across multiple products/services and strategy initiatives.
P/S
1
P/S
2
P/S
3
P/S
4
P/S
5
P/S
6
P/S
7
P/S
8
P/S
9
P/S
10
P/S
11
P/S
12
P/S
13
P/S
14
P/S
15
P/S
16
P/S
17
P/S
18
P/S
19
TC1
TC2
TC3
TC4
TC5
TC6
TC7
TC8
TC9
TC10
TC11
TC12
TC13
TC14
TC15
TC16
TC17
TC18
TC19
TC20
TC21
TC22
TC23
TC24
TC25
TC26
TC27
TC28
TC29
TC30
TC31
TC32
TC33
Initiative 3: Initiative 5: Initiative 6: Initiative 13: Initiative 19:
TECHNOLOGY CONCEPTS
PRODUCTS/SERVICES (1 of 2)
35
The Future is Uncertain
Analysis, Strategy, and Plans Must Lead to Action
There’s Too Much Information
You Can’t Perform Detailed Analysis on Everything
Look for “Show Stoppers” First
It is Easier to Grow from Current Capabilities than to Jump to “New Horizons”
Don’t Confuse Brainstorming with Analysis
Look for Synergies
Our Philosophy
36
Overview of Consulting Projects
High Level Strategy
Commercialization
Profiles Workshop
Opportunity Discovery
Scenario Planning
Strategic Roadmaps
Product/Service
FunctionalRequirements
Technologies
Now 2 Years 5 Years
BusinessConsiderations Need MarketCompetition
A B C
A B C
41 2 3
This wayThis way
Signposts
This way This way
Milestones
MonitoringSystem
Intelligence