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2 March 2017 copyright .id – the population experts
Who are we?
.id are population experts (demographers, spatial analysts, forecasters, planners, economists)
.id has Australia’s largest team of population forecasters
We understand how cities are growing and changing
We quantify this knowledge into detailed population forecasts
Our clients use this knowledge to decide where and when to invest in infrastructure, services an marketing
Over 2.5 million people access .id’s online demographic resources every year
We provide the evidence-base for 300 councils Australia-wide and numerous public and private enterprises
Who we work with… 300 councils and …
Today’s presentation
Introducing SAFi
How do we build SAFi?
Population growth trends: Is it all bad news for WA?
Case study: Anticipating demand at the local level
Questions
Small Area Forecast information
Population forecasts for Western Australia
Introducing SAFiSAFi is a state-wide, micro-geography population forecast
Provides unprecedented insight into the future of Australia’s population
Quantifies the demand for services over time from state-wide to local geographies
Combines both tops-down and bottoms-up modelling techniques for greater accuracy
Reflects development activity at a local area level
Regularly updated
Available for Victoria, NSW, ACT & WA.
Proven over 10 years – second iteration for Western Australia
SAFi is granular…. 2,990 small areas
Population change by SAFi area, 2017-2027, Perth
Source: id SAFi, 2017
-444 to 0
0 to 250
250 to 500
500 to 2,000
2,000 to 2,941
What SAFi can tell you?
For each micro-geography – 2,990 SA1-derived areas
Population
Dwellings and household types
Single year of age (0-90+ year olds)
Breakdown by male/female
Single year of forecast period – 2011 to 2041
dwellings
How do we build SAFi?
migration by age
household formation
How do we build SAFi?
Small areas
Building approvals
Property databases
Council input
Land use changes
Aerial photography
household formation
dwellings
migration by age
Identify dwellings and timing
Construction & development timing
Source: Nearmap
Harrisdale and Piara Waters
January 2010January 2011January 2012January 2013January 2014January 2015January 2016January 2017
Is it all doom and gloom after the boom?
WA population forecasts
Key themes
Population growth trends
Ageing of the population
Changing housing consumption
Three Growth Markets
Sub-state population futures
Population growth trends
How has WA’s population grown?
Over 500,000 new residents in Western Australia in the last decade
Perth has been a magnet for overseas migrants (also Major Mining Projects) – 457 Visas
Historically WA gains population from other states, though in last two years has lost population to Queensland and Victoria in particular
WA is ageing but at a lower rate than expected as overseas migration gains and more births have supplemented the population under 40
Births continue to exceed deaths, but less natural increase over time, and more older people
Average annual population growth, Major States, Census periods, 1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-6 2006-11 2011-16
Aver
age
annu
al g
row
th ra
te
Period
Australia NSWVic. QldSA WA
Annual population growth rates, Major States, 2000-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Annu
al g
row
th ra
te
Year to June 30
AustraliaNSWVicSAQldWA
Historical population growth rates, Western Australia and Australia, 1836-2011
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1836 1846 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016
Aver
age
annu
al g
row
th ra
te
Period
Western AustraliaAustralia
Private capital expenditure in mining vs population growth, Western Australia, 1991-2017
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics; ABS, Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Billi
ons $
Pers
ons
Year ending June 30
Change in ERP
Mining Investment
What has changed?
Decline in the mining industry impacting on migration to WA
Net overseas migration has declined after the highs of the boom period and the share to WA has decreased as New South Wales has recovered and Victoria’s has become more attractive, return of 457 visa holders
Unprecedented losses through internal migration in 2016 ( -7,700) after averaging +3,500 in the previous decade
Fertility rates have started to fall again, leading to a more stable number of births
Net overseas migration, Western Australia, 1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Shar
e of
Aus
tral
ia
Net
ove
rsea
s mig
ratio
n
Year ending June 30
Net overseas Migration Share of Australia
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
Net interstate migration, Western Australia, 1976-2016
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Num
ber o
f per
sons
Year ending June 30
Fertility rates and number of births Western Australia, 1976-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Statistics
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e
Birt
hs
Year
Births Total Fertility Rate Assumed trend
Life expectancy, Western Australia, 1981-2015
Source: ABS, Life Tables, States, Territories and Australia, 2013-2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
Year
Males Females
Ageing of the population
Population by five year age group, Western Australia, 1971-2001
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Pers
ons
Age group
1971 1981 1991 2001
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
Population change by five year age group, Western Australia, 1971-2001
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Pers
ons
Age group
Population change by five year age group, Western Australia, 2001-2016
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014; id SAFi, 2017
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Pers
ons
Age group
Net overseas and interstate migration by age, Western Australia, 2006-2011
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Pers
ons
Age group
Overseas Migration Interstate Migration
Changing housing consumption
Average household size, Western Australia and Major Regions, 1981-2011*
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Aver
age
hous
ehol
d si
ze
Year ending June 30
Perth
Western Australia
Regional WA
* Mandurah and Murray counted in Regional WA
Population growth & building approvals, Western Australia, 1991-2017*
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2014* 2017 based on 6 months of data
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Num
ber
Year ending June 30
Population growth
Building approvals
Growth in non-private dwellings, Western Australia
Source: id SAFi, 2017 : unpublished data; Nearmap
Year ChangeRegion 2006 2011 2016 2006-2011 2011-16
Inner Northern Perth 7,584 8,683 10,152 1,099 1,469
Inner Southern Perth 6,434 6,490 6,981 56 490
Northern Perth 1,279 2,188 2,408 909 220
Peel 905 1,465 1,545 560 80
South East Perth 1,708 2,102 2,175 393 73
South West Perth 2,100 2,815 3,009 715 194
Swan Valley-Hills 3,335 3,560 4,244 225 684
Geraldton-Wheatbelt 2,493 4,465 4,933 1,972 468
Great Southern-Goldfields 3,894 5,472 5,956 1,578 484
Pilbara-Kimberley 3,956 19,306 21,419 15,350 2,113
South West WA 1,876 2,583 2,348 707 -235
Western Australia 35,563 59,129 65,169 23,566 6,040
Wheatstone construction camp
201120122013201420152016
Dwelling growth, established versus greenfield, Perth, 1991-2036
Source: ABS, Census; id SAFi, 2017
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36
Dwel
ling g
ain
Census period
Infill / major sites
Greenfield
Three Growth Markets
Forecast population growth by age, Western Australia, 2016-2036
Source: id SAFi, 2017
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
Pers
ons
Age group
Population by five year age group, Western Australia, 2016-2036
Source: id SAFi, 2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Pers
ons
Age group
2016 2026 2036
Age structure comparison, selected countries and Western Australia, 2035
Source: id, SAFi, 2016, UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision: Medium Fertility Series
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Shar
e of
pop
ulat
ion
Age group
Western Australia
Australia
Canada
Japan
Local and regional changes
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Annu
al g
row
th ra
te
Year ending June 30
Inner City Middle Suburbs Outer Suburbs
Forecast population growth by typology area, Western Australia, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id SAFi, 2017
historical forecast
Forecast population growth by typology area, Western Australia, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id SAFi, 2017
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Annu
al g
row
th ra
te
Year ending June 30
Regional Coastal Regional Inland Mining and remote
historical forecast
Forecast population growth by LGA, Western Australia, 2016-2036
Source: id SAFi, 2017
Average annual pop changeGreater than 3.0% gain1.5% to 3.0%0.5% to 1.5%-0.5% to 0.5%-1.5% to -0.5%Greater than -1.5% loss
Murray
Serpentine-Jarrahdale
Perth
Kwinana
Joondalup
Wanneroo
Swan
Rockingham
ArmadaleBeverley
See Inset
Broome
Port Hedland
Karratha
Kalgoorlie-Boulder
Geraldton
Gingin
Busselton
Forecast population growth, selected LGAs, 1991-2041
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id SAFi, 2017
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Pers
ons
Year ending June 30
Wanneroo (C)
Joondalup (C)
Swan (C)
Stirling (C)
historical forecast
Forecast population growth, selected LGAs, 1991-2041
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Pers
ons
Year ending June 30
Rockingham (C)
Murray (S)
Cockburn (C)
Armadale (C)
Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth; id, SAFi, 2017
historical forecast
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Pers
ons
Year ending June 30
Perth (C)
South Perth (C)
Belmont (C)
Bayswater (C)
Forecast population growth, selected LGAs, 1991-2041
Source: id SAFi, 2017
historical forecast
Forecast population growth by SA2, Greater Perth, 2016-2036
Source: .id SAFi, 2017
Average annual pop changeGreater than 3.0% gain1.5% to 3.0%0.5% to 1.5%-0.5% to 0.5%-1.5% to -0.5%Greater than -1.5% loss
Tapping-Ashby-Sinagra
Bullsbrook
Gidgegannup
Yanchep
Wanneroo
Osborne Park Industrial
Perth CityVictoria Park-Laithlain-Burswood
Dawesville-Bouvard
Pinjarra
Mandurah North
Mandurah East
Rockingham Lakes
Mundijong
Baldivis
Byford
North Coogee
Wungong-Brookdale
Wattleup
Anketell-Wandi
Casuarina-Wellard (East)
The last word
ConclusionsPopulation growth is expected to return to stronger levels over the next few years, with iron ore prices recovering and gas investment likely to boom again, given global demand
However, Western Australia is more than mining - attractive in terms of its lifestyle, environment and as a place of economic growth – migration will bounce back
Understanding macro trends is important, but for service delivery, the devil is in the detail
SAFi drills down to the local level and identifies / visualises major pockets of dwelling and population growth and distinguishes
SAFi distinguishes between housing markets in migration and housing structure to aid in age based service provision
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