THE GREAT ESCAPEWhy so much doom and gloom when things are

getting better?

DAVID HULMEBrooks World Poverty Institute

Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre

Institute for Development Policy and Management

“THINGS ARE GETTING WORSE”

PUBLIC SENTIMENT IN THE WEST

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

The world emits 48% more carbon dioxide from the consumption of energy now than it did in 1992

A 2°C rise is “guaranteed” within one generation

Beyond a 2°C rise, climate change is likely to have catastrophic and irreversible effects

Forest destruction and ocean pollution continues

INEQUALITY

Today, 80 people own as much wealth as half the world’s population and in the next year the combined wealth of the richest 1% will overtake that of the other 99% of people

EXCLUSION

21 million men, women and children around the

world are in a form of slavery

• Gender• Ethnicity• Race• Religion• Disability

“THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER”

THE GREAT ESCAPE?

RISING INCOMES

Global real GDP per capita has risen by 320% between 1950 and 2010 ($3,500 to $11,200)

GDP per capita in UK has risen by over 500% between 1950 and 2010 ($6,939 to $36,320)

STRONGER POVERTY REDUCTION

STRONGER POVERTY REDUCTION

The extreme poverty rate has been halved, but major challenges remain

Proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day, 1990 and 2010

LONGER LIFE EXPECTANCY

Greater gender equality

Primary school net enrolment rates by sex and region1999 and 2007

THE CASE OF BANGLADESH

GDP per Capita Bangladesh 1970 - 2010

$0

$1,000

$500

1970 2010

MORE ON BANGLADESH

WHY ARE THINGS GETTING BETTER?

“IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!”

Growth - Global GDP per capita has increased by 320% since 1950

Extreme poverty ($1.25 a day) worldwide reduced by half 1990-2010: From 47% to 22% in

developing countries 700 million people lifted out of

extreme poverty But are growth and free trade

really all you need?

“IT’S SOCIAL POLICY, STUPID!”

“IT’S THE POLITICS, STUPID!”

1980….Anocracy and Autocracy Rule!

“IT’S THE POLITICS, STUPID!”

2012….Democracy (and Anocracy) rule!

“IT’S THE CONVERSATIONS, STUPID!”

Creation of useful knowledge (especially public knowledge) and its diffusion

People talking about washing hands (lowers infant mortality), about simple book-keeping (raises productivity) – using mobiles (increases connectivity and access to information)

OK THEN… WHY SO GLOOMY?

THE MISINFORMED

The nature of contemporary media: Sensationalism Rolling news Focus on all that is bad

Example 1 - Bangladesh Example 2 – University of Manchester PhD

students: More than 50% of broadsheet coverage of the last

10 years was kidnap and death of Linda Norgrove

THE INFORMED – OUTRAGE

Slow pace of progress given the affluent world in which we live Reallocation of less than 1% GDP would erradicate all

extreme poverty

If focused, the technological and organizational capabilities of humanity would permit total MDG achievement

Moral requirement to do better and do more

Hence the need for OUTRAGE!

THE INFORMED – NEW CHALLENGES

Spiralling inequality Number of millionaires worldwide is to increase by

about 53% in the next five years, to 53.2 million By 2016 the top 1% will be richer than the rest of the

world combined Ineffectiveness of institutions regulating

international finance In Africa, for every $1 of aid that enters the

continent, $10 of illicit finance / resources leaves the continent

THE INFORMED – NEW CHALLENGES

Inequality…

Slows down poverty reduction

Undermines the evolution of democracy and effective institutions

Facilitates Regulatory Capture

WHAT CAN WE DO

Do not despair.

Do not be complacent.

Think and act!

AT MANCHESTER

Create policy relevant knowledge Coproduce this knowledge with our partners Shift from poverty reduction focus to reducing

poverty and inequality worldwide and promoting climate justice

Communicate this knowledge to policy elite in the rich and poor worlds

Raise public understanding of global development

PERSONAL CHOICES

Make contributions to an NGO: humanitarian (Médecin Sans Frontiers) development (Oxfam or SCI) human rights (Amnesty International) radical-campaigning (War on Want) even Southern (BRAC International).

Find ways of reducing your personal carbon footprint Buy fair trade products and let retailers know this is your

preference Ask your pension fund about ethical investment

PERSONAL CHOICES

Think about your views on development issues Think about whether you support multilateralism

and agencies such as the UN when talking with others

Use your personal networks – social groups, mosque, church, temple, choir and friends – to discuss ideas about “what should be done”

Question your constituency candidates

….become an activist?

CONCLUSION

THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING DOWN!

WE HAVE TO DO MUCH BETTER

Brooks World Poverty Institutehttp://www.bwpi.manchester.ac.uk/

Institute for Development Policy and Managementhttp://www.manchester.ac.uk/idpm/

Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centrehttp://www.effective-states.org/

Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institutehttp://www.hcri.manchester.ac.uk/

Chronic Poverty Research Centrehttp://www.chronicpoverty.org/

International Research Initiative on Brazil and Africahttp://www.brazil4africa.org/