USA DOE – OIL STATISTICS

WEEK 332016

ARNAUD BOUCARD

The opinions expressed in this report are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of my employer, Thomson Reuters

Source: US Department of Energy

AGENDA

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03

1. CRUDE OIL 04

2. GASOLINE 06

3. DISTILLATES 08

4. KEROZENE 10

5. REFINERY 12

II. ANNEXE 13

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDOE – STATISTICS

Crude stocks declined by 2 508 kb to 521 093 kb versus an expected gain of 522 kb. This delcline was run by PADD 5 with a drawdown of 2 281 kb, and higher implied demand ( 267 kb/d). Stocks are 142 583 kb superior to the 5y average (378 510 kb). Furthermore, stocks are 1 000 kb under the 4w average (522 093 kb), and 64 880 kb superior to the last year (456 213 kb).

Cushing stocks reduced by 724 kb to 64 531 kb. I t's 25 741 kb superior to the 5y Average (38 790 kb), 242 kb under the 4w average (64 773 kb), and 7 092 kb over the last year (57 439 kb).

For a 3rd consecutive week, Gasoline stocks reduced by 2 725 kb to 232 658 kb versus an expected drawdown of 1 638 kb. I t is 19 081 kb/d above the 5y Average (213 577 kb), 25 738 kb/d above the 4w average (206 921 kb), and 17 176 kb/d above the last year (215 482 kb). The contraction was driven by PADD 5 with a reduction of 2 351 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (- 320 kb/d). With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 33 (over 5 past years).

Distillates Stocks rose by 1 940 kb to 153 136 kb versus an expected contraction of 1 638 kb. that is 17 442 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (135 694 kb), 25 567 kb/d over the 4w average (127 570 kb), and 4 736 kb/d above the last year (148 400 kb). The gain was led by PADD 1 with a build of 1 199 kb.

For a 2de consecutive week, Kerosene stocks gained 36 kb to 41 648 kb, which is 1 377 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (40 271 kb), 181 kb/d over the 4w average (41 467 kb), and 674 kb/d behind the last year (42 322 kb). The gain was led by PADD 5 with a build of 884 kb, and higher Kerosene imports ( 104 kb/d).

Refinery Run gain 1.33 pt versus an expected gain of 0.50 pt.

3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Change Level

-2,508 521,093

-724 64,531

-2,725 232,658

1,940 153,136

36 41,648

1.33 93.48%

Current Week

Crude Oil - Lower 48

Crude Oil - Cushing

Gasoline

Distillates

Kerozene

Refinery Run

Thomson Reuters

Survey

522

-1,638

Difference

-742

-0.50

-3,030

-1,087

2,682

1.83

WEEK 332016

CRUDE OIL

4

Storage (kb) Cushing (Oklahoma) - Storage (kb)

320,000335,000350,000365,000380,000395,000410,000425,000440,000455,000470,000485,000500,000515,000530,000545,000

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

4,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,6006,9007,2007,5007,8008,1008,4008,7009,0009,3009,6009,900

18,00022,00026,00030,00034,00038,00042,00046,00050,00054,00058,00062,00066,00070,00074,000

6,5006,8507,2007,5507,9008,2508,6008,9509,3009,650

10,00010,350

21.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0

CRUDE OILEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and crude stocks declined by 2 508 kb to 521 093 kb. This delcline was run by PADD 5 with a drawdown of 2 281 kb, and higher implied demand ( 267 kb/d).

Stocks levels of PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4 moved by - 737 kb, - 92 kb, - 218 kb, 820 kb respectively.

Stocks are 142 583 kb superior to the 5y average (378 510 kb). Furthermore, stocks are 1 000 kb under the 4w average (522 093 kb), and 64 880 kb superior to the last year (456 213 kb).

Weekly crude run (refinery input) rose by 267 kb/d to 16 865 kb/d. 4w Average reached 16 865 kb/d (+ 267 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 31.2 days of supply.

Cushing stocks reduced by 724 kb to 64 531 kb. I t's 25 741 kb superior to the 5y Average (38 790 kb), 242 kb under the 4w average (64 773 kb), and 7 092 kb over the last year (57 439 kb).

Crude production rose by 152 kb/d to 8 597 kb/d. That is 1 147 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (7 450 kb), 93 kb/d over the 4w average (8 504 kb/d), and 751 kb/d under the last year (9 348 kb).

Crude imports reduced by 211 kb/d to 8 194 kb/d. I t's 6 kb/d over the 5y Average (8 188 kb), 250 kb/d below the 4w average (8 444 kb/d), and 156 kb/d over the last year (8 038 kb).

US imports: Canada (3 302 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (1 005 kb/d), Mexico ( 760 kb/d), Venezuela ( 816 kb/d), Kuwait ( 72 kb/d), Colombia ( 531 kb/d), Ecuator ( 195 kb/d), and Angola ( 113 kb/d), and Iraq ( 351 kb/d), and Nigeria ( 103 kb/d), and Others ( 946 kb/d). 5

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation8/12/2016 8/5/2016 vs current vs current 8/14/2015 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND (kbl /day) Implied Demand 16,865 16,598 267 16,725 140 16,775 90 15,979 886REFINERY INPUT (kbl /day) Total 16,865 16,598 267 16,725 140 16,775 90 15,979 886

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,037 1,039 -2 1,050 -13 1,190 -153 1,124 -87PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,734 3,663 71 3,736 -2 3,539 195 3,509 225PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,956 8,855 101 8,848 109 8,826 130 8,220 736PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 588 575 13 601 -13 630 -42 594 -6PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,550 2,466 84 2,492 58 2,590 -40 2,532 18

PRODUCTION (kbl / day) Total 8,597 8,445 152 8,504 93 9,348 -751 7,450 1,147IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 8,194 8,405 -211 8,444 -250 8,038 156 8,188 6

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 692 963 -271 964 -272 810 -118 912 -220PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 2,659 2,269 390 2,310 349 2,338 321 1,824 835PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3,675 3,375 300 3,614 62 3,262 413 3,925 -250PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 270 284 -14 291 -21 364 -94 331 -61PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 898 1,514 -616 1,265 -367 1,264 -366 1,196 -298

STORAGE (kbl) Total 521,093 523,601 -2,508 522,093 -1,000 456,213 64,880 378,510 142,583

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 17,063 17,800 -737 17,577 -514 15,515 1,548 12,256 4,807PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 153,005 153,097 -92 152,070 936 139,490 13,515 105,436 47,569

Cushing (Oklahoma) 64,531 65,255 -724 64,773 -242 57,439 7,092 38,790 25,741PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 272,124 272,342 -218 271,338 786 224,497 47,627 189,680 82,444PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 26,384 25,564 820 25,486 898 23,306 3,078 18,843 7,541PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 52,517 54,798 -2,281 55,623 -3,106 53,404 -887 52,294 223

GASOLINE

WEEK 332016

Storage (kb) Price

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

6

8,2508,4258,6008,7758,9509,1259,3009,4759,6509,825

10,00010,17510,35010,525

195,000200,000205,000210,000215,000220,000225,000230,000235,000240,000245,000250,000255,000260,000

300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

GASOLINEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation8/12/2016 8/5/2016 vs current vs current 8/14/2015 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 9,762 9,769 -7 9,770 -8 9,705 57 9,067 695REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 10,280 10,280 10,098 10,110 171 8,936 1,344 8,855 1,425 Adjustement (Blend) -113 19 -132 -151 38 -1,126 1,013 -607 494 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,361 3,321 40 3,317 44 3,253 108 3,078 283 PADD 2 - Midw est 2,686 2,762 -76 2,726 -40 2,607 79 2,356 330 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,301 2,162 139 2,216 85 2,203 98 2,090 211 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 341 338 3 333 8 317 24 316 25 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,704 1,678 26 1,668 36 1,682 22 1,621 83IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 610 930 -320 762 -152 868 -258 687 -77 PADD 1 - East Coast 538 794 -256 642 -104 835 -297 618 -80 PADD 2 - Midw est 9 7 2 7 2 1 8 4 5 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 105 -105 81 -81 14 -14 39 -39 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3 1 2 2 1 5 -2 0 3 PADD 5 - West Coast 60 23 37 29 31 13 47 24 36STORAGE (kbl) Total 232,658 235,383 -2,725 206,921 25,738 215,482 17,176 213,577 19,081 PADD 1 - East Coast 70,125 70,915 -790 71,212 -1,087 59,213 10,912 56,760 13,365 PADD 2 - Midw est 48,618 50,969 -2,351 50,724 -2,106 47,569 1,049 48,247 371 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 76,595 77,267 -672 78,171 -1,576 75,264 1,331 74,159 2,436 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 7,105 7,481 -376 7,419 -314 6,383 722 6,428 677 PADD 5 - West Coast 30,215 28,751 1,464 29,395 820 27,053 3,162 27,983 2,232DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE)

For a 3rd consecutive week, Gasoline stocks reduced by 2 725 kb to 232 658 kb, which is 19 081 kb/d above the 5y Average (213 577 kb), 25 738 kb/d above the 4w average (206 921 kb), and 17 176 kb/d above the last year (215 482 kb).

The contraction was driven by PADD 5 with a reduction of 2 351 kb, and lower Gasoline imports (- 320 kb/d).

PADD 1, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 790 kb, - 672 kb, - 376 kb, 1 464 kb

With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 33 (over 5 past years).

Weekly volume supplied of Gasoline declined by 7 kb/d to 9 762 kb/d. 4w Average reached 9 770 kb (- 8 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 23.8 days of supply.

Gasoline production gained 10 098 kb/d to 10 280 kb/d. That is 1 425 kb/d above the 5y Average (8 855 kb), 171 kb/d above the 4w average (10 110 kb), and 1 344 kb/d above the last year (8 936 kb).

Gasoline imports contracted by 320 kb/d to 610 kb/d. I t's 77 kb/d beneath the 5y Average ( 687 kb), 152 kb/d inferior to the 4w average ( 762 kb), and 258 kb/d below the last year ( 868 kb).

DISTILLATES

WEEK 332016

Storage (kb)

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

8

97,500105,000112,500120,000127,500135,000142,500150,000157,500165,000172,500180,000

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

2575

125175225275325375425475525575

3,8003,9254,0504,1754,3004,4254,5504,6754,8004,9255,0505,1755,300

Price

DISTILLATESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

9

8/12/2016 8/5/2016 vs current vs current 8/14/2015 vs current vs currentIMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 3,488 3,937 -449 3,722 -234 3,895 -407 3,725 -237REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 4,939 4,739 200 4,885 54 5,072 -133 4,766 173 PADD 1 - East Coast 348 301 47 329 19 361 -13 319 29 PADD 2 - Midwest 987 988 -1 1,039 -52 1,032 -45 1,000 -13 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,841 2,741 100 2,773 69 2,911 -70 2,700 141 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 173 176 -3 181 -8 206 -33 177 -4 PADD 5 - West Coast 590 533 57 564 27 562 28 569 21IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 92 185 -93 117 -25 200 -108 124 -32 PADD 1 - East Coast 64 169 -105 101 -37 138 -74 81 -17 PADD 2 - Midwest 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 6 -3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 42 -42 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 PADD 5 - West Coast 25 14 11 14 11 19 6 13 12STORAGE (kbl) Total 153,136 151,196 1,940 127,570 25,567 148,400 4,736 135,694 17,442 PADD 1 - East Coast 61,919 60,720 1,199 60,016 1,903 54,632 7,287 48,201 13,718 PADD 2 - Midwest 29,641 30,058 -417 30,021 -380 31,273 -1,632 29,167 474 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 44,527 43,491 1,036 45,102 -575 44,949 -422 42,062 2,465 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3,342 3,565 -223 3,555 -213 3,898 -556 3,387 -45 PADD 5 - West Coast 13,707 13,362 345 13,679 29 13,648 59 12,877 830DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 41.1

Distillates Stocks rose by 1 940 kb to 153 136 kb, which is 17 442 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (135 694 kb), 25 567 kb/d over the 4w average (127 570 kb), and 4 736 kb/d above the last year (148 400 kb).

The gain was led by PADD 1 with a build of 1 199 kb.

PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 417 kb, 1 036 kb, - 223 kb, 345 kb

Weekly volume supplied of Distillates reduced by 449 kb/d to 3 488 kb/d. 4w Average reached 3 722 kb (- 234 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 41.1 days of supply.

Distillates production built by 200 kb/d to 4 939 kb/d. That is 173 kb/d above the 5y Average (4 766 kb), 54 kb/d superior to the 4w average (4 885 kb), and 133 kb/d inferior to the last year (5 072 kb).

Distillates imports declined by 93 kb/d to 92 kb/d. I t's 32 kb/d under the 5y Average ( 124 kb), 25 kb/d behind the 4w average ( 117 kb), and 108 kb/d inferior to the last year ( 200 kb).

KEROSENE

WEEK 332016

Storage (kb)

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

10

32,00033,35034,70036,05037,40038,75040,10041,45042,80044,15045,50046,85048,200

20.0021.0022.0023.0024.0025.0026.0027.0028.0029.0030.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.00

1,1851,2351,2851,3351,3851,4351,4851,5351,5851,6351,6851,7351,785

03570

105140175210245280315350385420

Price

KEROSENEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

11

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 1,870 1,688 182 1,775 95 1,772 98 1,537 333REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 1,849 1,842 7 1,785 65 1,639 210 1,603 246 PADD 1 - East Coast 89 82 7 89 0 99 -10 86 3 PADD 2 - Midw est 281 282 -1 258 23 250 31 256 25 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 922 918 4 901 21 762 160 782 140 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 41 39 2 39 2 40 1 27 14 PADD 5 - West Coast 516 521 -5 497 19 488 28 453 63IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 182 78 104 138 44 144 38 66 116 PADD 1 - East Coast 44 46 -2 40 4 75 -31 44 0 PADD 2 - Midw est 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 5 - West Coast 138 32 106 98 40 69 69 22 116STORAGE (kbl) Total 41,648 41,612 36 41,467 181 42,322 -674 40,271 1,377 PADD 1 - East Coast 8,589 9,868 -1,279 9,552 -963 10,616 -2,027 10,674 -2,085 PADD 2 - Midw est 6,648 6,144 504 6,269 379 5,828 820 6,748 -100 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 16,009 16,098 -89 15,943 66 16,228 -219 13,786 2,223 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 687 671 16 685 2 679 8 592 95 PADD 5 - West Coast 9,715 8,831 884 9,018 697 8,971 744 8,667 1,048DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 23.5

For a 2de consecutive week, Kerosene stocks gained 36 kb to 41 648 kb, which is 1 377 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (40 271 kb), 181 kb/d over the 4w average (41 467 kb), and 674 kb/d behind the last year (42 322 kb).

The gain was led by PADD 5 with a build of 884 kb, and higher Kerosene imports ( 104 kb/d).

PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4 storage levels moved respectively by-1 279 kb, 504 kb, - 89 kb, 16 kb

Weekly volume supplied of Kerozene gained 182 kb/d to 1 870 kb/d. 4w Average reached 1 775 kb (+ 95 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 23.5 days of supply.

Kerosene production gained 7 kb/d to 1 849 kb/d. That is 246 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (1 603 kb), 65 kb/d over the 4w average (1 785 kb), and 210 kb/d above the last year (1 639 kb).

Kerosene imports built by 104 kb/d to 182 kb/d. I t's 116 kb/d superior to the 5y Average ( 66 kb), 44 kb/d superior to the 4w average ( 138 kb), and 38 kb/d above the last year ( 144 kb).

REFINERY RUNEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

12

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation8/12/2016 8/5/2016 vs current vs current 8/14/2015 vs current

OPERABLE CAPACITY (kbl / day) Total USA 18,321 18,321 0 18,321 0 17,962 359 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,278 1,278 0 1,278 0 1,269 9 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,924 3,924 0 3,924 0 3,842 82 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 9,515 9,515 0 9,515 0 9,271 244 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 680 680 0 680 0 647 33 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,924 2,924 0 2,924 0 2,933 -9GROSS INPUT (kbl / day) Total USA 17,127 16,883 244 17,008 120 17,084 43 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,076 1,031 45 1,071 5 1,192 -116 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,734 3,666 68 3,739 -5 3,542 192 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 9,014 8,976 38 8,938 77 8,988 26 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 589 577 12 602 -13 632 -43 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,714 2,633 81 2,659 56 2,730 -16% UTILISATION Total USA 93.48% 92.15% 1.33 92.83% 0.65 95.11% -1.63 PADD 1 - East Coast 84.19% 80.67% 3.52 83.82% 0.37 93.93% -9.74 PADD 2 - Midwest 95.16% 93.43% 1.73 95.27% -0.11 92.19% 2.97 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 94.73% 94.34% 0.40 93.93% 0.80 96.95% -2.21 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 86.62% 84.85% 1.76 88.49% -1.87 97.68% -11.06 PADD 5 - West Coast 92.82% 90.05% 2.77 90.92% 1.90 93.08% -0.26OUTPUT (kbl / day) : Motor Gas / Distillate / Kerozene / Residual Total USA 17,585 17,296 289 17,323 262 17,182 403 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,841 3,752 89 3,778 63 3,762 79 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,986 4,112 -126 4,075 -89 3,958 28 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 6,262 6,011 251 6,080 183 6,032 230 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 568 564 4 563 5 580 -12 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,928 2,857 71 2,827 101 2,850 78