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Migration and Housing: Uncertainty in Projecting Trends and Spatial Patterns
Tony ChampionEmeritus Professor of Population Geography
Paper presented at TWRI Policy & Research Conference ‘Future housing needs and how best to meet them?’ at
Park Inn Radisson Hotel, York, 4 November 2016
Background• This paper focuses on the first half of the conference title
‘Future housing needs’ and, as Christine Whitehead will talk specifically about this, concentrates on the demographic drivers behind this.
• The key one is MIGRATION because: (1) FERTILITY projections have little impact on housing needs over a 25-year projection period, none for 10-15 years ahead, apart from a marginal effect on type of housing needed; and (2) MORTALITY is traditionally the most predictable of the 3 components…
• …as can be seen from the 2014-based variant projections showing the range of outturns for 2039 UK population size, using what ONS considers the likely max and min rates for the three components (next slide)
Estimated and projected UK population mid-2001 to mid-2039 Source: National Population Projections, 2014-based, Statistical Bulletin, Figure 2
:
Outline of the rest of my talk• My aim is to focus on key considerations in thinking about
the future levels and patterns of migration• Two sets of questions:
(1) How large will the population be overall? For which the main uncertainty is International Migration (2) Where will people be living? This depending mainly on Within-UK Migration but also where immigrants settle
• Structure of talk:- International Migration- Internal Migration
- Regional differences especially North vs South- Urban-rural differences; - Local ‘neighbourhood’ preferences
- Conclusion: 8 questions/uncertainties
International migration
• Next slide shows ONS’s thinking in 2015, as the latest estimate was showing a rise to the unprecedented annual net level of ca 330,000 for the UK
• Their principal projection shows steady reduction to their long-term assumption (from 2021) of 185,000 (compared with 165,000 in the 2012-based NPP)
• But, advised by their expert group, the most likely max and min around this principal projection is 80,000, i.e. a range of 105,000 to 265,000 a year from 2021
• Already there have been questions as to what approach to take on this range for planning purposes
• And since then, of course, there is BREXIT – what will this mean for the future level of net immigration?
• Leaving this issue for Chris Stephens this afternoon!
Total net international migration, UK,mid-1994 to mid-2025Source: 2014-based NPP: UK migration assumptions, Figure 5.7
:
Estimated Assumed
Main regional trend is North-South drift, but averaging almost zero since 2000: What for the future?
Net migration from North to South of UK, 1971-2014(South = East Midlands, East of England, London, South East & South West)
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Net gain to South
Net gain to North
Source: calculated from ONS data
The urban-rural dimension (2001-2015)Strongest overall growth (in YELLOW) now recorded by Major Cities due to natural increase (BLUE) and international migration (PURPLE), but still some net urban-to-rural migration (GREEN)
Population change rate, 2001-2015, Great Britain, by 5 settlement-size types
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Major Cities Large Cities Small Cities Large Towns Small Towns &Rural
% p
er y
ear (
com
poun
d ra
te)
Natural change International migration Within-UK migration Total change
Source: calculated from ONS data
Latest trends in within-UK migration
Slowing of urban-to-rural migration, notably at the 2008-09 Recession, but after this the pace of urban exodus gradually accelerates ….>
Net within-UK migration, 2001-2015, Great Britain, by 5 settlement-size types,annual rate (%)
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
per c
ent
Small Towns &Rural
Large Towns
Small Cities
Large Cities
Major Cities
Great Recession
Source: calculated from ONS data
<… especially from London: Will this post-recession rise continue? What BREXIT effect on economy and immigration?
Net migration out of London to the rest of the UK, 1975-2015
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Source: ONS data
Local population change
• Most attention recently has been given to the rapid growth of city-centre populations, e.g. two Urban Demographics reports by Centre for Cities (CfC) last year on 59 cities of England & Wales
• Their ‘city centres’ saw a 37% population increase 2001-2011, nearly half students – admittedly on small base (1.6% E&W pop), benefits being proximity to restaurants etc (quoted by 39% respondents), shops (27%), transport (28%), work (27%) BUT drawbacks of housing cost, pollution, lack of greenery
• Their ‘suburbs’ grew by 8% for much bigger pop base (55%), benefits being housing-related (cost 31%, size and type 24%), near family & friends (29%), access to good schools (12%) – NO major drawbacks
• Their ‘hinterlands’ grew by 6% (for base of 33%), primary benefit being access to countryside and green space (38%), with lack of public transport being the main drawback
Making sense of recent trends
• London is the key driver of UK migration, as in Fielding’s (1989) ‘escalator region’ model: young adults attracted by strong career prospects, families leaving (short/middle-distance), retirees leaving (longer-distance)
• Other cities perform similar role, but much less so – apart from for university students (as shown by CfC, 2015), though graduate retention is difficult in the face of the London ‘escalator’ effect
• The London effect is being reinforced by international migration, but the latter has the side effects of increasing the selectivity of inflow from UK as well as reducing the net North-South drift to almost zero now
• The ‘Urban-Rural shift’ continues but at much slower pace since the Great Recession; recently, however, the exodus from London has rebounded, propelled by inflationary pressures & capacity constraints as well as lure of rural idyll
Why the urban upsurge? • Economic growth has swung in favour of cities, especially ‘world cities’
like London, since the deregulation of its financial services in 1986• International migration, and associated growth of the ethnic minorities,
has focused on larger cities, also causing higher natural increase there• Government has ramped up urban regeneration policies to provide more
attractive conditions there to accommodate national population growth• Helped by the NIMBY factor, the house-building land supply has further
diminished in more rural areas• More of the limited housing in rural areas is being bought for investment
purposes, including for second and holiday homes• The ‘growing older population’ in rural areas reduces the ‘people
capacity’ of the housing there• Rural services are declining with the fall in the number of local families,
including closure of schools, shops, ‘pubs’ and bus services• The Great Recession weakened the housing market and made it more
difficult for city people to move to more rural areasSO, is the urban upsurge likely to continue?
Finally, slowing home-moving
Even if greater churn for some groups, more people are ‘staying put’ due to less short-distance moving; many factors suggested: moving costs, staying in good catchment area for schools (& GPs), dual-earner households, easier daily mobility, lack of down-sizing options, investment value for children
Proportion (%) of all people with a different address at the end of the decade compared to the start, by distance of move
36.5
34.3
32.7
27.5
9.0
8.9
8.0
8.5
6.5
6.5
6.2
6.5
3.0
3.2
2.9
2.8
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
1971-1981
1981-1991
1991-2001
2001-2011
<10km 10-<50km 50-<200km 200km+
Some questions about the future1) Will international migration continue at its recent high levels
and degree of concentration on London?2) Will there be regional rebalancing via Northern Powerhouse,
HS2&3, inflationary pressure in SE England?3) Will long-distance counterurbanization (esp from London)
remain at traditional ‘economic boom’ levels?4) Or will the (large-city) suburbs become attractive enough (in
terms of extra housing at affordable prices) to house more?5) Will empty nesters continue to ‘bed block’ in family-size homes
or might they opt for city centres (relive student life)?6) Will student numbers continue to grow and will they still opt for
going away to university as much as currently?7) Will the growing ethnic minorities continue the observed
assimilation process that is turning them into suburbanites?8) What is the likely housing capacity of London etc?Issues to bear in mind during the rest of today, and beyond!
Migration and Housing: Uncertainty in Projecting Trends and Spatial Patterns
Tony Champion
