activeGitHubby Gautham Nair

Python wrappers for the GitHub API

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

future activity?

gap

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

future activity?

gap

activeGitHubA quantitative estimator of future repository activity

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Estimated probability of any commits in the next six months

Present

time

repoArepoB

repoY..

20,000 repos

birth

Training Data

6 months back

time

repoArepoB

repoY..

time

repoArepoB

compute features active or not?

repoY..

time

repoArepoB

compute features active or not?

Logistic Regression

repoY..

time

repoArepoB

compute features active or not?

Logistic Regression

train

test

AUC = 0.89

repoY..

any Repo you want

time

any Repo you want

Present

time

any Repo you want

compute features

time

any Repo you want

compute features active ?

predict

p = 0.73

feature!predicts!ACTIVE

Regression Coefficient

feature!predicts!ACTIVE

Regression Coefficient

2 wrecent commit!

rate

feature!predicts!ACTIVE

Regression Coefficient

2 wrecent commit!

rate

days since last commit

feature!predicts!ACTIVE

Regression Coefficient

2 wrecent commit!

rate

days since last commit

contributor!diversity

2 w!3 m!6 m!1 y!1 m

total commits

recent commit!rate

contributor!diversity

days since last commitage

Regression Coefficient

feature!predicts!ACTIVE

by Gautham Nair

R2

R10

_9d

R2_

48h

R2_

9dR

2_O

nR

10_4

8hR

10_O

nw

m98

3b_0

w0u

M_0

dR

1050

uM_1

d1u

M_1

d1u

M_5

d50

uM_5

dw

m98

3b_3

ww

m98

3b_4

ww

m98

3b_1

ww

m98

3b_2

w

axon guidancenuclear divisionnuclear divisionnuclear divisionnuclear divisionnuclear divisionmicrotubule−based processgnrt. of a sgnl invl. in cll−cll sgnl.gnrt. of a sgnl invl. in cll−cll sgnl.axon guidancengtv rgltn of mltclllr orgnsml prcssactin cytoskeleton organization

by Gautham Nair

Num of cells=27 Num of cells=48

div-1(g19)

Wild type

div-1(g19)

Wild type

div-1(g19) 25oC

150015000 0unc−120 RNAunc−120 RNA

Age

sinc

e EM

S di

visi

on (m

in)

MS E C

D

MS E C

D

div-1(or148) 25oC

0

50

100

150

MS E C

D

N2 25oC

N2 20oC

N

27

48

Age

sinc

e EM

S di

visi

on (m

in)

0

50

100

15000unc−120 RNA

A B

C D E

MS E C

D

Systems biology

Physical Chemistry

2 w!3 m!6 m!1 y!1 m

total commits

recent commit!rate

contributor!diversity

days since last commitage

predicts!ACTIVE

Regression Coefficient

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0 1 2 3log10(daysSinceLastCommit + 1)

prob

Alive

25050075010001250

count

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0 1 2 3log10(daysSinceLastCommit + 1)

dens

ity

stargazers_count > 1000FALSETRUE

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

0 2 4 6 8 10 12months

cum

ulat

ive d

istri

butio

n

months

cumulative!distribution

gap lengthonly gaps > 1 week

Logistic Regression with default regularization

predicted!aliveOrDead alive dead! alive 6167 1924! dead 1673 9036

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

0 1 2 3log10(gap_length_days + 1)

coun

t

0

250

500

750

0 1 2 3log10(longest_gap_days + 1)

coun

t

0

500

1000

1500

0 1 2 3log10(daysSinceLastCommit + 1)

coun

tAll gaps between commits

Longest commits

gap

Time since last commit

any Repo you want

time

any Repo you want

Present

time

any Repo you want

compute features

time

repoArepoB

repoZ

compute features active or not?

Finished: R repos >1 stars Python > 9 stars

false “Alive”

p_alive > 95%

false “Alive”

false “Alive”

false “Alive”

false “Alive”

p_alive < 5%

false “Dead”

false “Dead”

false “Dead”

false “Dead”