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Momentum Day Trade
Short Crude Oil
5th August 2015
Longer Term Technical Analysis
• Price is below 200 day moving average
• Price is below 20 day moving average
• Crude Oil is witnessing volatility contraction with 5day ATR < 20day ATR
Short Term Technical Analysis
Intra Day Fundamentals
• Speculation prior to EIA report is that weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories fell at a faster pace than expected last week.
• American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended July 31, compared to expectations for a decline of 1.6 million.
• Global oil production is outpacing demand following a boom in U.S. shale oil production and after a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year not to cut production.
Intra Day Technical Analysis
Trade Management
• I offered one contract at 2961 with 8 tick stop at 2969
• I bid myself out at 2944
Intuition
• No
Review
• It was one good trade • I was patient to offer liquidity which boosted my
ratios as I entered 4 ticks above my signal level • I held this trade for approximate 212 minutes • I followed my process to the letter with discipline.
Holding position for a longer time leads to boredom which usually makes me do something stupid so i am happy that I channeled my boredom in someplace else.
• In next 90 days hopefully with confidence this trade can be scaled up in position sizing.