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Natural Foresight Creating An Organic System for Organizational Futures Thinking and Action

World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

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Page 1: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Natural

Foresight

Creating An

Organic

System for

Organizational

Futures

Thinking and

Action

Page 2: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Yvette Montero Salvatico, Partner/Principal Holding a bachelor’s degree in Finance and an MBA from the University of

Florida, Yvette has over 15 years of corporate experience with large, multi-

national firms such as Kimberly-Clark and The Walt Disney Company. Before

becoming a partner at Kedge, she lead the effort to establish Future

Workforce Insights at the Walt Disney Company, identifying future workforce

trends and leveraging foresight models and techniques to assess potential

threats and impacts, emerging ideas, and exciting opportunities for the

organization. Yvette is an experienced speaker, addressing large audiences

on topics such as business policy, diversity, and foresight.

Frank Spencer, Partner/Principal Prior to founding Kedge, Frank worked for 15 years as a leadership coach

and developer with entrepreneurs, social communities, networking initiatives

and SMEs, helping them to advance human development, local and global

innovation, and open-source collaboration. He holds a Master of Arts in

Strategic Foresight from Regent University, and is a member of the World

Futures Studies Federation. With a strong background in both business and

academic foresight, Frank developed a course on futures and foresight for

the Duke TIP Institutes; has worked on foresight projects for companies

such as Kraft, Mars, Marriott, and The Walt Disney Company; and is a

prolific speaker on foresight and innovation.

Kedge is a minority-owned foresight, innovation, creativity, and strategic design consultancy. We help

our clients to thrive in a world of complex ideas and practices, uncover emerging trends on the horizon

that will impact their business, and discover unseen opportunities for strategic advantage and

development.

@ymsalvatico

@frankspencer

Page 3: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Why do so many

foresight efforts FAIL?

Page 4: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Kedge, LLC

Page 5: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

We have entered the…

Postnormal Economy

Page 6: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 7: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

They have a risk management charter.

Why do so many foresight

efforts FAIL?

Page 8: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Failure is feedback.

Risk and Resiliency

The only way to grow stronger,

wealthier, and more resilient in the

long run is to expose ourselves to more risk and volatility today.

Page 9: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 10: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 11: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 12: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

A KEDGE is a smaller anchor on a sailing

vessel that plays a big role.

Dropping the kedge a

great distance from the

ship, the crew pulls

themselves toward their

desired destination.

Likewise, companies can

continually pull themselves

toward preferred futures &

new opportunities using Kedge’s

Natural Foresight System.

Page 13: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Natural Foresight allows companies to kedge themselves past the outdated

models of survival & sustainability – and

even beyond resilience – helping them to create an

environment of transformation

across their organization.

Page 14: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Why do so many foresight

efforts FAIL?

They leverage mechanical approaches.

Page 15: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Today’s

complex

environment

is driven by

more than

technology.

Page 16: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 17: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Steps are

great…as long

as they get you

somewhere.

Page 18: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

A better (more organic) approach

mimics natural growth.

Page 19: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 20: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Leveraging Natural Growth Curves for

Transformation

Page 21: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 22: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 23: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Why do so many foresight

efforts FAIL?

They stop at

the tip of the

iceberg.

Page 24: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

So what are we missing?

Page 25: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

So what are we missing?

Page 26: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 27: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Identifying

trends

has very

little value.

Build

Patterns

Trends must

be interpreted

so that we can…

Page 28: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 29: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 30: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 31: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
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Page 33: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Why do so many foresight

efforts FAIL?

They operate as closed systems, in

isolation from the rest of the organization.

Page 34: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Many organizations treat foresight efforts like an app… when it should be their operating system.

Page 35: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Insulated Foresight Divisions ignore external

perspectives and exist only to provide “Executive

Entertainment” -- information that reinforces what

leadership believes or desires to be true -- rather

than useful insights about the future.

Page 36: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Sequestering foresight efforts in just one part of the

organization ignores the importance of

culture development and results in an

environment that itself creates a roadblock to successful change processes.

Page 37: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Culture cannot be

copied, benchmarked, or googled

but it can be developed.

Page 38: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Strategic foresight is a discipline but is actually best served

as an integrated philosophy. Organizations that

intentionally develop a futures culture are primed for

market-leading innovation, successful opportunity

development, and revenue-generating futures intelligence.

Page 39: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Natural Foresight is much more than a set of tools or steps.

It’s an entire Ecosystem,

a way of thinking & acting within organizations

that leads to ongoing aspirational success.

Page 40: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Why do so many foresight

efforts FAIL?

They focus too much on the future.

Page 41: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

In today’s business environment, a quarterly deadline will

always take precedence over thinking about the future.

Foresight divisions lose support, funding, and headcount

because leadership struggles to see the

connection between the future and today.

Page 42: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 43: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

A new vision requires

a new measurement.

The Long Now

Page 44: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Thinking about the future has little value if it is not tied to action.

Page 45: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model
Page 46: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Natural

Foresight

Page 47: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

• Fosters a natural growth cycle in organizational development, product

development, etc.

• Generates an adaptive, resilient & transformational environment.

• Develops a “Long Now” mindset in the

organization.

Natural Foresight . . .

Page 48: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

• Addresses our environment of accelerating complexity.

• Allows you to utilize the system “where you are.”

Natural Foresight . . .

• Helps create an organic culture in the organization.

• Presents a holistic & integrated system where each quadrant reinforces the others.

Page 49: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

• Covers the entire system needed to build a successful foresight competency within an organization.

Natural Foresight . . .

• Addresses the needs & vision of an organization “head on.”

• Allows for intuitive understanding & learning of foresight thinking & practice

Page 50: World Future 2013 Presentation: Kedge's Natural Foresight Model

Natural

Foresight

Creating An

Organic

System for

Organizational

Futures

Thinking and

Action