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Using foresight and agility for an uncertain future of work

Marianne JacksonFormer Chief Talent Development OfficereBay, Inc.

4 Thoughts for tonight

1. Raise your gaze

2. Shift the HR role if you haven’t already

3. Future of Work is NOW

4. Practice Foresight, Insight to Action

Raise Your Gaze…..

“Almost everything we did ran against the grain of military tradition and general organizational practice. We abandoned many of the precepts that had helped establish our efficacy in the twentieth century, because the twenty-first century is a different game with different rules.”

General McChrystal

Author, Team of Teams

Innovation and adaptation

What new rules are true for your organization?

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FUTURE OF WORK

PWC SurveyFuture of Work Report

53%

39%

33%

26%

13%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

TECHNOLOGY BREAKTHROUGH

RESOURCE SCARCITY & CLIMATE CHANGE

DEMONGRAPHIC SHIFTS

RAPID URBANIZATION

NOT SURE

NONE OF THESE

What will transform the way people work over the next 5-10 years

Series 1

Will jobs exist in 2050?Sophisticated machines are fast outpacing jobs. What does this mean for the future of work? And if there are no jobs, what we will do with our time?The Guardian

The Future of Work: It’s Already Here… And Not As Scary As You ThinkBY JOSHBERSIN · SEPTEMBER 21, 2016

The future of work is surprisingly human:Technology can and will become more human within organizations that are aware of the pitfalls and opportunitiesCIO Magazine

Institute for The Future

1. Look Backward from the Future

2. Move toward a Future that Rewards Clarity but Punishes Certainty

3. Voluntary Fear Engagement

4. Move toward a Future of Gaming for Grit

5. Leading Shape-Shifting Organizations

6. Move toward a Future of Distributed Authority

7. Successful with Being There When You are Not There

8. Move Toward a Future That Is Beyond Being There

9. Create & Sustain Positive Energy

10. Move Toward a Future Where Leaders Are Body Hackers

Shift the HR role if you haven’t already

Practice Foresight, Insight, Action

iftf.org

© 2016 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1855B | www.iftf.org

Welcome to the Future

Foresight Practitioner LabPerfect for HR teams

“Organizations must sense signals of disruption, understand larger patterns of change, communicate a clear and inspiring vision for navigating the uncertainty, and

build a dynamic capacity for the unexpected. “

» Systematically sense and analyze signals

» Apply IFTF’s Foresight-Insight-Action framework

» Quickly identify and evaluate emerging opportunities and threats

“

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Be very clear about where you are going but very flexible about how you will get there.”

Bob Johansen

IFTF

Develop a discipline of looking ahead

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“a process which combines three fundamental elements:•prospective (long-term or forward-looking)

approaches, •planning (including policy-making and priority-

setting) approaches, and •participative approaches (engaging

stakeholders and knowledge sources)”

Term: foresight

Scan for “Signals”

• A small or local innovation with the potential to scale in size, impact, and geographic distribution

•Clusters tell a bigger story about the future.

Interpolate on the Signal

• Does it suggest a change of scale?

• Does it spark a redefinition of existing boundaries?

• Does it have the potential to spread virally?

• Does it shift worldviews for a significant group of people?

• Does it point to a strong shift in identity?

• Does it challenge traditional authority?

Explore Consequences

• Extend foresight from specific observations to a chain of events

• List assumptions about causality

• Identify relationships between different chains of change

• Explore a few alternative scenarios

What will be the right planning horizon for HR?

HCP meets “Vision Sprinting”- FAST & DEEP

Vision-Improvisation-Imagination-Experimentation

• Identify constraints• Emphasize the speed of the process• Create a safe space to ideate & iterate• Facilitate a highly efficient conversation

LET GO OF PERFECT!

Tim Leberecht, HBR 10/2016

The Future of Work is NOW

The Future has arrived; perfect for disruptive solutions

38

Rapid & continuous up-skilling

© 2016 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1855B | www.iftf.org

EBAY’S FORESIGHT, INSIGHT, ACTION IN TALENT DEVELOPMENT

Best choice

Most relevance

Most powerfulselling platform

eBay’sStrategy

ThisCulture

Courageous

Driven

Inventive

Richly diverse

Be the brand

TalentedPeople

People who lead

People who coach

People who inspire

People who execute

40

Needs Needs

INTERDEPENDENT ELEMENTS

Future Trends held as true

1. Company culture & employee experience is job #1

2. Leadership skills, roles & relationships shift for a democratized and distributed workplace

3. Jobs, assignments, learning, earning and careering ALLdisrupted

Launch Succeed

Grow

Commitments to eBay’s

employees

1

Deepen culture and employee engagementto improve organizational velocity and success

2

Accelerate individual& team success leveraging leaders as performanceand development coaches

3

Power individualized development so employees are always learning & growing

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Striking the balance between a performance

and a development culture

A perpetual system of coaching for performance and development success

Change something iconic

Change the relationship to a mutual partnership

Leader’s role is to create the conditions for other’s success

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Leader as C

oach

A new competitive advantage found in career development

45

2017+1990’s1950’s

Management Lead

Career-Self Reliance

Company-Partner Alliances

eBay’sCAREER DEVELOPMENT SOLUTION

Millennialshave an expectation tocontinuallylearn by doing

The speed of change will require the rapid developmentof skills

Work will becomeincreasinglyproject-based

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HOLISTIC, SCALABLE CAREER DEVELOPMENT

Grow Your Career//

Explore

Self-exploration and

planning on skills,

interests and

aspirations through

Career Navigator.

Learn

Always-available

personalized,

curated learning on

degreed.com.

Experience

Experienced-based

development via Experience Market, Job Designing and job

transfers.

Connect

Learn about careers

through eBay

Community

Networking.

EXPLORE

CAREER NAVIGATOR

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Action plans initiated by employee backed by leadership

51

LEARN

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Degreed has cataloged over 250,000 online learning courses and 3 million informal learning activities from more than 1200 sources – the

largest learning library on Earth.

EXPERIENCE

Experience Market

FIND THE RIGHT PROJECT BY SKILL, AVAILABILITY & INTEREST

CONNECT

Summary thoughts

• SHIFT THE CULTURE TO SUPPORT YOUR FUTURE

• REIMAGINE ROLE & SKILLS OF LEADERSHIP

• PERSONALIZE DEVELOPMENT

• SUPPORT A “WHOLE SELF” EMPLOYEE MODEL

• REWARD FLEXPERTISE VS. EXPERTISE

• GROW THE ORG’S ABILITY TO FUNCTION VERY WELL IN A DISTRIBUTED MODEL INSTEAD OF HIERARCHY

• MAKE WELLNESS A PRIORITY & DON’T FORGO FACE TO FACE INTERACTIONS

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Your Thoughts and Questions