Some New Trends in Future Studies

Dr. Mariana Todorova

Eclecticism and Chaos in Methodology of Future Studies

I. Methodological Aspects

T h e r e i s n o n o t i c e a b l e development in methodological aspect concerning Future studies and the forecasting methods. On the contrary, by the assumption that it is an interdisciplinary field, where numerous individual studies cooperate, we can observe an eclecticism of methods.

Are Future Studies Real Scientific Field?

The area and the discipline of the future’s studies are still over-flexible and conceptually vague notion. A disciplinary procedure and arrangement are missing. They still need to be defined, and perhaps they are not necessary for Future Studies – it is a convenient flexible position

Foresight is Made Equal to FS. FS Sometimes are Reduced to

Foresight

Even the term "foresight" is often presented as synonymous for predictions, scenarios and FS in general. It is used in a much wider scale than what actually is, namely a process of preparing forecasts and recommendations for the future, taking into account the expertise of all interested parties – a state, business, a professional community, and amateurish view, etc.

Tremendous Influence of Future Studies

Despite This Scientific Eclecticism: Futures Studies are Very Influential, and Perhaps More Influential Than Ever II. Conceptual/ Ideological Aspects

Why ?

Because Futures Studies go beyond themselves and their original aims to study and analyze the sources, patterns and causes of stability and change… and mapping of the alternativeness of the future

Futures studies become a tool for influence, making decisions, modeling trends or even propaganda and manipulation of mass consciousness, that leads to commercialization of the field and even of turning it into business. This is carried out through forecasts which aim at suggesting certain ideas serving commercial or propaganda-driven projects and concepts.

Political influence

American presidents in many sector policies base their decisions on the National Intelligence Council’s reports, which draws up the most influential global trends reports. The Chinese people's political consultative conference is similar to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) organization, which prepares the next five year plans for Chinese government.

Corporate influence

A lot of marketing strategies are developed to “attack” certain groups/ communities.

Global or Local Future III. Time and Space Aspects

Prediction and forecasting in the Futures Studies are also contextual, dependent on the place where the forecast/ scenario is made. The results depend both on the continent and the problems of the particular country. That is why there is a direct correlation between these problems and the visions and the strategies for the future of these countries.

Technological Absolutism

Content Aspect in FS

Scientific Truth

The technological progress is represented as a part of the instrumental reason and the scientific truth. New crusade?!

The scientific truth is classified as absolute and maybe one day this trend will reach such a peak that there will be a peculiar crusade not against the “infidels”, but against the “ignorant”. The scientific absolutism may reach as far as destroying something, if it does not meet the scientific truth, which is value neutral, rational, technocratic, etc.

An End in Itself – Identification of the Human with the Technological

AI – The Main Topic

What the Technological Absolutism will Lead us to?

Is this a part of the human evolution or co-evolution jointly between the humans and the artificial intelligence? Is singularity the perspective that awaits us? Or this will be competence, replacement or displacement, a cooperative competition, a comparative advantage or invariants of humans.

Principles for Achievement of AI Dr. J.Storrs Hall

Meme AI Autogenous АI When? What? How? Who? Where?

Kinds of AI

Hypohumans AI is below human abilities. They(?) are not as smart as humans and they are under our rules.

Diahumans, the Transhuman AI. They are crossing of the range of human abilities, such as chess playing-games, reading, writing. They have the need to learn.

Parahumans. They are sociable robots. They could act like lawyers, doctors, accountants, etc.

Allohumans AI. They are other, different than humans.

Epihumans AI. They are “upon”, “after”, “Godlike” AI, self-improvable. Hyperhumans Vernon Vinge’s definition for AI. This is a superhuman intelligence – being able to improve themselves significantly faster than humans can.

Ethics, Esthetics and Morality Issues

Risks

Chances and Prospects

Mass culture – “Ex machine” Case