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Five Futures Interpreting the IPCC scenarios in a local context
Prof Bob Scholes Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute
University of the Witwatersrand
24 June 2014
All the details of the scenarios will be in a special issue of
Global Environmental Change Riahi & van Vuuren (eds) scheduled for November 2015
The scenarios databases, with country-by-country data, are at https://iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb
Acknowledgements Much of the material presented here came
from the IPCC meeting of Scenarios, Vienna 16-16 May 2015
Slide courtesy of Keywan Riahi
Excerpt from a slide by Elmar Kriegler
Climate impacts: relating SSP’s to RCP’s
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
Cant reach
Don’t need to reach
Mitigation costs as % of GDP
Slide courtesy of Keywan Riahi
Global land area transformed
Rel
ativ
e ch
ange
in t
ran
sfo
rmed
are
a (2
00
5=1
)
Changes in forest cover
Slide courtesy of Kate Calvin
How might SA biodiversity fare?
SSP3 Regional rivalry
High popn, low education, low GDP/cap
Low crop yields, high deforestation High climate change
Conversion of marginal lands to crops, biodiversity is low priority, weak nature tourism market, high climate pressure
SSP5 Fossil-fueled development
Low popn, High education, high GDP/cap
High food demand High crop yield Med-high climate change
Biodiversity under climate pressure. Mass market for nature experiences
SSP4 Inequality
Medium popn, low education, Low GDP/cap
Low food demand, hi-lo yields, med-high climate change
Market for high-end nature tourism, islands of protection, biodiversity contested
SSP2 Middle of the road
Medium popn, med education, Med GDP/cap
Medium food, med crop yield, med climate change, afforestation
Biodiversity threatened by climate change, biofuel and crop expansion
SSP1 Sustainability
Low popn, high education, med GDP/cap
Low food demand High crop yield High forest protection Low climate change
Some wind, solar & biofuel impacts, but biodiversity is highly valued and not under extreme pressure
The take-home messages…
1. Scenarios made for different purposes share common underpinnings. So the best way to build a scenario is to borrow another and adapt it.
2. Global scenarios create boundary conditions for local scenarios; local scenarios collectively determine global outcomes.
Social Assumptions
Slide courtesy of Kate Calvin
Stylised economic growth rates
Slide courtesy of Rob Dellink
CO2 emissions
Slide courtesy of Kate Calvin
