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The Future of Business | IDE | Quito | 20 April 2015
Looking Forwards Organisa>ons increasingly want to iden>fy and understand
both the an>cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beEer prepared for the future.
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul>ple views of the next decade so all can be beEer informed and s>mulate innova>on.
FA 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade
were shared widely via books, cards and online and have been extensively used by organisa>ons around the world.
Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 is doubling the face to face interac>on
and significantly raising online sharing, debate and discussion
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 35+ HOSTS 20 TOPICS 50 COUNTRIES 100 WORKSHOPS 2500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program is taking place
during 2015 and is addressing 20 topics via 100 events in 50 countries with around 20 to 25 core hosts.
Ageing
CiMes
Company
ConnecMvity
Data
EducaMon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
The Process 20 ini>al perspec>ves on the future kicked off the Future Agenda discussions taking place across 5 con>nents from Feb to July 2015. These are ini>al views to be shared, challenged and enhanced.
Ini>al Perspec>ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
The Future of Business From the discussions so far, there are many issues iden>fied as being
significant for the next decade. A number of these relate to the future of business and are included in the following pages.
Value of Data There is undoubtedly a huge economic incen>ve to generate and collect data from whatever sources it becomes available. As more data from more things becomes available, we can expect to see a data “land grab” by organisa>ons.
The Composite Consumer Flexible digital iden>>es allow consumers to connect with each other even as they connect with brands. Loyal rela>onships will be made not just with individual customers but also with families, couples, and groups of friends.
The Human Touch In a world of global and digital marke>ng and consump>on,
consumers will increasingly favour those brands that can offer more emo>onal engagements, and specifically human-‐to-‐human contact.
Age Diversified Workforces The demographic changes underway are fundamentally altering virtually all aspects of life as we know it. Workforces are becoming
older and more age diversified than ever in history.
Consumer Power The consumer is likely to gain the upper hand in terms of
the power dynamic and principles such as ‘great customer service’ will no longer be a nego>able.
Real Cost of Water Users are likely to have to pay for the real cost of infrastructure. One
short-‐term op>on is the financial recycling of assets and capital. However, in the longer-‐term we will have to pay the true value for key resources.
Less Carbon -‐ More Energy The climate change debate is serious but needs to be broader,
focused not solely on reducing CO2 emissions, but on developing a low carbon, high-‐energy future to ensure prosperity for all.
New Value, Different Models In the coming years, brands will need to be disrup>ve in their thinking about loyalty, seeking new kinds of value proposi>on, exploring different models
and redefining the very ways in which loyalty is conceived.
Enabling Financial Inclusion With many organisa>ons now making financial inclusion a priority, it is
likely we will see a significant por>on of the 2.5bn unbanked adults armed with electronic payments products in the future.
Making Compromises Reconciling the need for companies to act sustainably and in accordance with principles of interna>onal human rights with the local prac>ces will require compromise to develop workable context and industry-‐specific guidelines.
Business SoluMons to Societal Problems Re-‐visioning the role of business in society may lead to a reduc>on in inequality, less par>san poli>cs and greater ac>on as businesses take the lead rather than wai>ng for Government to lead them.
Readiness for Water Scarcity Currently half of the world’s ci>es with more than 100,000 in habitants
are situated in areas experiencing water scarcity. To date neither governments nor businesses have done enough to prepare for this.
Sustainable ConsumpMon Part of the solu>on to food supply is the development of consump>on paEerns that meet requirements in a safe, nutri>ous and affordable manner. In many countries this will mean learning to eat sustainably with less reliance on meat.
Global vs. Local Technology is by its very nature global and data does not respect na>onal
boundaries. Can na>on states con>nue to set the rules or will tension in global interoperability drive us to design for global standards but with localised use?
Post Modern Workplaces We are on the cusp of a transi>on to a world where, half of the popula>ons
of Europe and the United States subscribe to post-‐modern values of autonomy and diversity. The workplace will not escape this trend.
Over-‐Mred and Over-‐worked Our defini>on of success and the adop>on of an always-‐connected work-‐life have made the millennial genera>on more stressed and over-‐>red than any
other. The high-‐achievers will con>nue to pay a high price for success.
FloaMng CiMes? Climate change poses a worrying challenge for ci>es. Already 50% of ci>es are dealing with its effects, and nearly all are at risk. Over 90% of all urban
areas are coastal, pugng most ci>es on earth at risk of flooding.
Hollowing Out the Professions Technology is challenging the white-‐collar worker and automa>ng both middle and high-‐end jobs. The future will see fewer accountants, lawyers and doctors and a hollowing out of the previously ‘safe’ professions.
Device is King, Consumer is Queen Whether on devices or in the cloud, our digital repositories will know who we are, where we are and what we redeem. Businesses need to understand these new intermediaries and how they define our rela>onships with their brands.
ReplicaMng Face-‐Mme Can virtual, online learning replicate the powerfully immersive
interac>ons that form the basis of face-‐to-‐face exchanges? Learning is grounded in the interplay of conversa>on, experience and meaning.
Reaching the Limits Growing popula>ons and rising consumer demand related to higher standards of living across all socie>es are increasing consump>on of
resources and we are in danger of exceeding the Earth’s natural thresholds.
Digital Engagement Ci>es are using digital plaiorms to beEer plan for the future and encourage public engagement. Using new technology and big data to support strategic planning of a city can help improve public engagement with the process.
Inequality On The Agenda Inequality has become a concern not just for developing countries but also for
those in the US and the Euro Zone: 56% of people living in rich countries believe the most pressing problem of the economy is inequality.
Reducing Food Waste Postharvest losses of plant foods can be substan>al in developing countries
and amount to 30-‐50% of produc>on. In developed countries we throw away a similar propor>on. The combined loss would feed about 3 billion people.
Learning From The Crowd Embracing adap>ve learning and the crowd-‐sourced learning solu>ons radically changes the culture surrounding learning and promotes the shil from a top-‐down model to one of collabora>on and exchange.
The Personal Data Dilemma Lurking ominously in the background there is also the ques>on of to
what extent consumers will allow us to collect and use their personal informa>on, and what they will expect in return?
People-‐Powered Planning In an era where the public voice is easier to access and harder to suppress, it becomes harder to generate support for new ini>a>ves without taking public views into account. Leaders will need to maintain public and poli>cal support.
Human Capitalism There is an increasing pressure to move to a new form of capitalism, one with a more human side to it that reconnects with the need to create and distribute wealth for the benefit of society rather than for the benefit of a select few.
AcMve Divestment A poten>al change is the influence of the divestment movement which is currently focused on persuading ins>tu>onal investors to divest from fossil fuels, but which in >me may extend to investments in other resources.
PosiMve ImmigraMon Economists agree that immigra>on is good for economies. Migrants tend to be
younger, more enterprising, and economically ac>ve, and their effect on wages, economic growth and tax contribu>ons is almost completely posi>ve.
Avoiding Unrest We need to address the issues of wealth crea>on and wealth distribu>on in order to avoid a build-‐up of societal pressure that leads to poli>cal
instability, societal unrest and even regime change.
Get Involved Join in the global discussion: Par>cipate in / host workshops and share your views online. Add alterna>ve perspec>ves into the mix to create a deeper, richer and global view of the World in 2025
Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org
The world’s leading open foresight program
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