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FIRST QUARTER 2013 RESULTS 14 MAY 2013 LUCA BETTONTE, CEO

ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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Page 1: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

FIRST QUARTER 2013 RESULTS14 MAY 2013

LUCA BETTONTE, CEO

Page 2: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

2

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based.There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

Page 3: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

3

AGENDA

1Q 2013 Highlights✓ Key Figures

Results Review✓ Business Environment✓ 1Q 2013 Group EBITDA✓ Results by Segments

Key Financials✓ Profit & Loss✓ Investments ✓ Cash Flow Statement

2013 Guidance and ConclusionsAppendix

Page 4: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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RC Ebitda Adj (€mn)

HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES

27%

47%

Leverage

RC Net Profit (€ mn)

Strong Renewables and Power, still weak R&M bottom line extremely positive

POWER & GAS

RENEWABLES

REFINING & MARKETING

CORPORATE

722

1,799

031/03/2013

DERIVATIVESNFP EXCL. DERIVATIVES

1,597

(1) Adjusted Net Financial Position does not include NFP of ISAB Srl

202

111

1Q 2012 1Q 2013

173

0

90

92

(2)(7)

92

41

(15)(6)

638

84

31/12/2012

1Q 2012 1Q 2013

27

0

1

(1)

Page 5: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

5

RESULTS REVIEW

FINANCE DIRECTOR

PAOLO MERLI

Page 6: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013

ITALIAN PRICE ZONAL PRICE SICILY CIP6

Electricity Prices (€/Mwh)

114 115

95

8781

64

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013

EMC Margin ($/bbl)

(1.39)

(0.85)

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013

Industry Retail Fuels Volumes (M tons)

5.625.31

Results Review

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013

Renewables: Electricity Prices (€/Mwh)158

154

8990

96 96 ● 95

(1) Italian price is theoretical price based on National Average Electricity Price (PUN) + GC

FRANCE ITALY BULGARIA GERMANY● (1)

Page 7: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

7

1,292

1Q 2012

0

111

51 (2) 14 (1)

Power & GasRenewables Refining & Marketing Corporate 1Q 2013

173

1Q 2013 GROUP EBITDA

Ebitda growth driven by Renewables and improvement in R&M

Results Review

Page 8: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

8

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

RENEWABLES RESULTS

44

339

809

Volumes (Gwh)

Strong growth mainly driven by ERG Wind acquisition

41

922

85

0

0

Results Review

1Q 20121Q 2013

1Q 20131Q 2012

3 16

(1) Bulgaria: ERG ‘s stake = 50%

307715

1

39

2

ITALY FRANCEBULGARIA(1)GERMANY

34

32

ERG Wind

49414ERG Wind

Page 9: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

9

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

POWER RESULTS

Volumes (Gwh)

Solid figures in Power

Results Review

32

25

6065

92 90

1Q 2012

1Q 2013

ERG POWERISAB ENERGY

0

767721

1,802 1,793

1Q 20121Q 2013

0

1,0351,072

Page 10: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

10

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

MARKETING RESULTS

4Q 2012

EOS TOTALERG

Market Share (%)

Improvement in a tough environment

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012

11.8%11.1%

1.0%0.9%

Results Review

2

1

2

9

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

4

9

1Q 20121Q 2013

EOSTOTALERG

0

1Q 2013

Page 11: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

11

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

REFINING RESULTS: COASTAL AND INLAND

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2013

Margins ($/bbl)

(0.10)

2.82

(1.39)

1.54

1.19

Volumes(2) (k tons)

Lower exposure to a still negative Refining(1) Inland Refining EBITDA includes Logistics(2) Volumes relate to 100% of TOTALERG stake in Rome (100%) and Sarpom (24%)

Results Review

EMC MARGIN

COASTAL REFINING MARGIN

INLAND REFINING MARGIN

INLAND REFININGCOASTAL REFINING

(1)

(0.85)

(11)

1Q 2012 1Q 2013

(4)

(7)

0

(19)

3

(22)

815

1Q 20121Q 2013

341474

0

2,398

1,150

1,248

Page 12: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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KEY FINANCIALS

Page 13: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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4Q 2012 Euro millions 1Q 2013 1Q 2012

128 RC Adjusted EBITDA 173 111

(57) Amortization and depreciation (70) (61)

70 RC Adjusted EBIT 103 50

(13) Net financial income (expenses) (24) (16)

1 Net income (loss) from equity investments 1 1

58 RC Results before taxes 79 35

(34) Income taxes (38) (21)

24 RC Results for the period 41 14

(14) Minority interests (14) (13)

10 RC Net profit 27 1

PRO-FORMA REPLACEMENT COST P&L

Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures

Key Financials

Page 14: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

14

ADJUSTED INVESTMENTS

(1) Renewables adjusted for LUKERG Renew (50%).(2) R&M adjusted for TOTALERG (51%) and for ISAB Srl (40% from January to August 2012).

Key Financials

1Q 2013

CORPORATEREFINING & MARKETINGRENEWABLESPOWER & GAS

(2)(1)

11

6

9

10

6

4

26

20

(€ mn)

0

1Q 2012

Page 15: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

15

1,510

27%

47%

43%

Adj. Net Debt

31/12/2012

Cash Flowfrom operation

WorkingCapital CAPEX Financial

Charges

Adj. Net Debt

31/03/2013

NFP 51% TotalErg and

50% LUKERG Renew

Net Debt31/03/2013reported

Leverage

1Q 2013 ADJUSTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT

(73)

(289)

0

Taxesand Other

438

Key Financials

Dividends Consolidation of ERG Wind

811

(152)

1,799

722

20 24 7

Page 16: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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2013 GUIDANCE AND CONCLUSIONS

CEO

LUCA BETTONTE

Page 17: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

17

173

>500

1Q 2013

2013 GUIDANCE AND CONCLUSIONS

2013 FCST

20

≈175

2013 FCST(1)

1Q 2013 2013 FCST(2)

LIQUIDITY PF OTHER AT MLT

1,799≈1,300

EBITDA:

CAPEX:

NFP:

Strong growth and delivery in line with new business model

RENEWABLES CORPORATER&MP&G

0

0

0

✓Economic guidance confirmed after Q1 results

✓Renewables & Power to contribute for more than 90% of

gg2013 EBITDA

✓R&M to slightly improve, also in light of lower exposure to

ggRefining

✓FY Capex guidance confirmed

✓For 9M we expect spending acceleration (vs Q1),

particularly in Renewables: advancement in Romania and

in Palazzo San Gervasio wind farm construction

✓Guidance confirmed

1Q 2013

(1) It does not include 20% ISAB investments (ca. €15mn) (2) It assumes put exercise on ISAB refinery within 31.12.2013

Page 18: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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APPENDIX

Page 19: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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4Q 2012 Euro millions 1Q 2013 1Q 2012

2,652 Adjusted Revenues 2,294 3,576

128 RC EBITDA Adjusted 173 111

37 - Renewables 92 41

89 - Power & Gas 90 92

10 - Refining & Marketing (2) (15)

(9) - Corporate (7) (6)

1Q 2013 RESULTS

Appendix

Page 20: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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4Q 2012 1Q 2013 1Q 2012

596 Installed capacity (end-period, MW) 1,232 552

of which:

512 - Italy 1,062 487

64 - France 64 64

20 - Bulgaria(1) 20 n.a.

n.a. - Germany 86 n.a.

350 Electricity Production (GWh) 809 339

of which:

293 - Italy 715 307

43 - France 34 32

13 - Bulgaria(1) 16 n.a.

n.a. - Germany 44 n.a.

142 ERG Renew price - Italy (Eu/MWh) 150 152

62 Electricity price (Eu/MWh) 60 76

80 Green Certificates price (Eu/MWh) 90 77

37 RC EBITDA (Eu mn) 92 41

(18) Depreciation (Eu mn) (31) (15)

20 RC EBIT (Eu mn) 60 26

RENEWABLES: KEY FIGURES

Appendix(1) Bulgaria: ERG ‘s stake = 50%

Page 21: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

21

4Q 2012 1Q 2013 1Q 2012

1,037 Sales (Gwh) 1,072 1,035

162 Sales (€ mn) 161 153

64 RC EBITDA (Eu mn) 65 60

52 RC EBIT (Eu mn) 53 47

88% Net capacity utilization (%) 94% 90%

123 CIP6 tariffs (Eu/MWh) 115 114

44 EBITDA IT GAAP (Eu mn) 43 37

ISAB ENERGY: KEY FIGURES

Appendix

Page 22: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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4Q 2012 Euro millions 1Q 2013 1Q 2012

728 Electricity Production (GWh) 721 767

25 RC EBITDA 25 32

(7) Depreciation (7) (6)

18 RC EBIT 18 26

ERG POWER: KEY FIGURES

Appendix

Page 23: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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4Q 2012 Euro millions 1Q 2013 1Q 2012

11 Adjusted RC EBITDA 5 7

14 - Marketing 9 4

(3) - Inland refining and logistics (4) 3

(14) Adjusted Depreciation (14) (15)

(3) Adjusted RC EBIT (9) (9)

13 Investments 6 6

12.1% TOTALERG retail market share(2) 11.1% 11.8%

0.8% EOS retail market share 0.9% 1.0%

INTEGRATED DOWNSTREAM: KEY FIGURES(1)

Appendix

(1) Figures include 51% stake inTOTALERG and 100% EOS(2) Estimated market share referring to 100% of TOTALERG

Page 24: ERG - First Quarter 2013 Results

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4Q 2012 Euro millions 1Q 2013 1Q 2012

21 Gross refining margin 12 17

(1) Adjusted RC EBITDA (7) (22)

(6) Adjusted Depreciation (5) (11)

(7) Adjusted RC EBIT (12) (33)

0 Investments(2) 0 4

COASTAL REFINING: KEY FIGURES(1)

Appendix

(1) Figures are adjusted for ERG’s stake in ISAB Srl (40% from January to August 2012, 20% afterwards)(2) Investments do not include 20% ISAB investments