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FOURTH QUARTER AND 2012 RESULTS 8 MARCH 2013 LUCA BETTONTE, CEO

ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

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Page 1: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

FOURTH QUARTER AND 2012 RESULTS8 MARCH 2013

LUCA BETTONTE, CEO

Page 2: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

2

DISCLAIMER

This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based.There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected.

Page 3: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

3

AGENDA

2012 Highlights✓ Key Figures✓ Delivery and main Achievements

Results Review✓ Business Environment✓ 4Q 2012 Group EBITDA✓ Results by Segments

Key Financials✓ Profit & Loss✓ Investments ✓ Cash Flow Statement

2013 Guidance and ConclusionsAppendix

Page 4: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

4

RC Ebitda Adj (€mn)

HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES

284

458

39%

27%

NFP Adj (€ mn)

Leverage

RC Net Profit (€ mn)

2011 4Q 2012

Strong Renewables and Power, still weak R&M bottom line back to positive

POWER & GAS

RENEWABLES

REFINING & MARKETING

CORPORATE

(49)0

0

239

696

(31) 29(11)(6)

12 10

2012 4Q 20112011 4Q 20122012 4Q 2011

55128

328

137

(28)21

89

3710(9)

1,179

722

31/12/2011 031/12/2012(1)

DERIVATIVESNFP EXCL. DERIVATIVES

1,125

638

(1) Adjusted Net Financial Position at 31/12/2012 does not include NFP of ISAB SrlHighlights

(17)

43

5484

Page 5: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

5

458

2012 FCST

ACTUAL VS EARLY 2012 GUIDANCE

2012

165≈175

LIQUIDITY PF OTHER AT MLT

722≈900

EBITDA:

CAPEX:

NFP:

✓ -6% due to further rationalisation of R&M Capex

2012 Financials: strong delivery

RENEWABLES CORPORATER&MP&G

0

0

0

✓ -20% thanks to higher cash generation, lower Capex and

gimprovement in NWC

2012 FCST(2)

2012(2)

2012 FCST 2012

≈400(1)

✓ +15% driven by Power and Renewables

(1) Guidance announced in May 2012 (1Q 2012 Results), then revised to >420 in December 2012 (Business Plan 2013-2015) (2) 2012 investments include 20% ISAB investment (€7mn) as of September 2012, €7mn of wind acquisition in Romania, and €25mn ca. for the gggacquistion of Tcherga (Bulgaria)

Highlights

Page 6: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

6

2012 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS

• Selected growth in Italy1: completion of Amaroni (24MW) and PsG (34MW)2 brought to construction

• Expansion in East-Europe: Bulgaria (40MW3 operative) and Romania (84MW3 under construction)

• Acquisition of Maestrale (636MW, 550MW in Italy and 86MW in Germany)

• Exiting gas projects (Ionio Gas and Rivara Storage)

• FY contribution from MSD (“Second Dispatching Market”)

Highlights

Renewables: keep growing

Power: streamlining business model

R&M: progressive reduction of refining activities

• 20% exercise of ISAB refinery

• Closure of Rome refinery and start-up of conversion works into a logistic hub

Financials: 2012 guidance well exceeded (both EBITDA and NFP)

1. FdL (98MW) in operation and Project Financed for €126mn in 1Q 20122. Palazzo San Gervasio applied for GSE auction in December 2012 and successfully bid in January 2013 with the lowest discount among competitors3. Considering 100% of LukERG Renew (50% ERG Renew)

• FY EBITDA and NFP considerably better than guidance given in early 2012

• Ongoing optimization of the Group’s indebtedneness allocation among businesses

• Value creation for shareholders through dividend (0.4€/share) and buy-back (5% own shares)

Page 7: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

7

RESULTS REVIEW

FINANCE DIRECTOR

PAOLO MERLI

Page 8: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

8

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012

ITALIAN PRICE ZONAL PRICE SICILY CIP6

Electricity Prices (€/Mwh)

106

123

94 91

79

66

4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012

EMC Margin ($/bbl)

(2.29)

(1.10)

4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012

Industry Retail Fuels Volumes (M tons)

6.39

5.78

Results Review

4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012

FRANCE ITALY BULGARIA

Renewables: Electricity Prices (€/Mwh)

161

146

8790

94 96

Page 9: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

9

1,292

2011

0

284

89

68

15 3

Power & GasRenewables Refining & Marketing Corporate 2012

458

FY 2012 GROUP EBITDA

Ebitda growth driven by Power, Renewables and improvement in R&M

Results Review

Page 10: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

10

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

RENEWABLES RESULTS

113

128

35 43

740

350

Volumes (Gwh)

Solid and growing figures in Renewables

2937

2

26

3

34

0

0

Results Review

137

8

128

68

7

61

2011(1)

4Q 2011(1)2012

4Q 2012

20114Q 2011

20124Q 2012

272

1,222

1

1

22

13

ITALY FRANCE BULGARIA

(1) 2011 does not include Water Services (about €1mn)

627

1,072

237 294

Page 11: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

11

86 87

2425

153

241

2064

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

POWER RESULTS

239

89

Volumes (Gwh)

Strong results, both at ERG Power and ISAB Energy

6,670ERG POWERISAB ENERGY

2011

4Q 2011

0

0

Results Review

6,997

1,4681,765

2012

4Q 2012

3,655

3,015

4,077

2,920

711

757

1,037

728

2011

4Q 2011

2012

4Q 2012

328

43

Page 12: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

12

1610

5(1)

86

46

21

15

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

MARKETING RESULTS

102

56

2011

4Q 2011

4Q 20124Q 2011

EOS TOTALERG

Market Share (%)

Lower industry consumptions in a tougher competitive environment

EOSTOTALERG

1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012

12.0% 12.1%

1.1%0.8%

0

Results Review

26

14

20124Q 2012

Page 13: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

13

RC Ebitda (€ mn)

REFINING RESULTS: COASTAL AND INLAND

4Q 2011 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012

Margins ($/bbl)

(1.42)

1.83

(2.29)

4.54

2.60

5,1793,854

1,257384

(96)

(35)

10,090

8,333

2011 2012

20114Q 2011

Volumes(2) (k tons)

Refining improved, but still negative

(3)

(33)

(6)

(30)

0

0

(1) Inland Refining EBITDA includes Logistics(2) Volumes relate to 100% of TOTALERG stake in Rome (100%) and Sarpom (24%)

Results Review

EMC MARGIN

COASTAL REFINING MARGIN

INLAND REFINING MARGIN

4Q 2011 4Q 2012

2,5431,065

20124Q 2012

(20)

(76)

(1)(3)

(36)

(4)

INLAND REFININGCOASTAL REFINING

(1)

(1.10)

4,911

4,479

1,286681

Page 14: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

14

KEY FINANCIALS

Page 15: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

15

2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011

458 284 RC Adjusted EBITDA 128 55

(242) (247) Amortization and depreciation (57) (71)

216 37 RC Adjusted EBIT 70 (16)

(64) (48) Net financial income (expenses) (13) (12)

(0) (0) Net income (loss) from equity investments 1 (1)

152 (11) RC Results before taxes 58 (28)

(89) (7) Income taxes (34) 13

64 (18) RC Results for the period 24 (15)

(52) (31) Minority interests (14) (2)

12 (49) RC Net profit 10 (17)

PRO-FORMA REPLACEMENT COST P&L

Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures

Key Financials

Page 16: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

16

ADJUSTED INVESTMENTS

77

58

20 20

53

71

10 17

22 35

815

(1) Renewables adjusted for LUKERG Renew (50%).(2) R&M adjusted for TOTALERG (51%) and for ISAB Srl (40% from January to August 2012).(3) 2012 Investments include 20% ISAB investments (€7mn) as of September 2012, and €7mn of wind acquisition in gg Romania plus €25mn ca. for the acquisition of Tcherga (Bulgaria)

Key Financials

156

39

20114Q 2011

(€ mn)

0

4Q 2012

165

52

2 1

CORPORATEREFINING & MARKETINGRENEWABLESPOWER & GAS

(2)

(3)

(1)

2012

35

(3)

1

Page 17: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

17

722

513

39%

27%

21%

Adj. Net Debt

31/12/2011

Cash Flowfrom operation

WorkingCapital CAPEX(1) Financial

Charges

Adj. Net Debt

31/12/2012

NFP 51% TotalErg and

50% LUKERG Renew

Net Debt31/12/2012reported

Leverage

FY 2012 ADJUSTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT

33(209)

0

Wind Acquisition in Bulgaria

and Romania

Taxesand Other

(378)

53

Key Financials

Dividends & Buyback

Cash-in 20% Put

ISAB

Change in representation

for ISAB Srl

1,179

(485)(85) 126

64

88

126

(1) CAPEX do not include 20% ISAB investments (€7mn) as of September 2012

Page 18: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

18

2013 GUIDANCE AND CONCLUSIONS

CEO

LUCA BETTONTE

Page 19: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

19

458

>500

2012

2013 GUIDANCE AND CONCLUSIONS

2013 FCST

165

≈190

2012(1)2013 FCST

2012 2013 FCST

LIQUIDITY PF OTHER AT MLT

722

≈1,300

✓2013 Economic guidance in line with BP:

- Renewables: full year contribution of IP Maestrale

- Power: still favourable local market conditions

- R&M: lower exposure to refining

EBITDA:

CAPEX:

NFP:

✓2013 Capex guidance confirmed and in line with BP

Strong growth through a sustainable business model

RENEWABLES CORPORATER&MP&G

0

0

0

Guidance and Conclusions

✓2013 NFP guidance confirmed and in line with BP

(1) 2012 investments include 20% ISAB investment (€7mn) as of September 2012, €7mn of wind acquisition in Romania, and €25mn ca. for the gggacquistion of Tcherga (Bulgaria)

Page 20: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

20

APPENDIX

Page 21: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

21

2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011

12,463 11,145 Adjusted Revenues 2,652 2,968

458 284 RC EBITDA Adjusted 128 56

137 69 - Renewables 37 29

328 239 - Power & Gas 89 43

21 6 - Refining & Marketing 10 (11)

(28) (31) - Corporate (9) (6)

FY AND 4Q 2012 RESULTS

Stronger Renewables results, solid in Power, improved in R&M

Appendix

Page 22: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

22

1,292

4Q 2011

0

56

46

9

21 (3)

Power & GasRenewables Refining & Marketing Corporate 4Q 2012

128

4Q 2012 GROUP EBITDA

Ebitda growth driven by Power, Renewables and improvement in R&M

Appendix

Page 23: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

23

2012 2011 4Q 2012 4Q 2011

596 548 Installed capacity (end-period) 596 548

1,222 740 Electricity Production (GWh) 350 272

128 113 of which in France (GWh) 43 35

151 154 ERG Renew price - Italy (Eu/MWh) 142 159

70 71 Electricity price (Eu/MWh) 62 77

80 82 Green Certificates price (Eu/MWh) 80 82

89 87 ERG Renew price - France (Eu/MWh) 90 87

137 69 RC EBITDA (Eu mn) 37 29

(66) (50) Depreciation (Eu mn) (18) (21)

71 19 RC EBIT (Eu mn) 20 8

RENEWABLES: KEY FIGURES

Appendix

Page 24: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

24

2012 2011 4Q 2012 4Q 2011

4,077 3,655 Sales (Gwh) 1,037 711

631 513 Sales (€ mn) 162 107

241 153 RC EBITDA (Eu mn) 64 20

192 102 RC EBIT (Eu mn) 52 7

88% 79% Net capacity utilization (%) 88% 61%

123 106 CIP6 tariffs (Eu/MWh) 123 106

149 72 EBITDA IT GAAP (Eu mn) 44 3

ISAB ENERGY: KEY FIGURES

Appendix

Page 25: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

25

2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011

2,920 3,015 Electricity Production (GWh) 728 757

87 86 RC EBITDA 25 24

(27) (33) Depreciation (7) (9)

61 53 RC EBIT 18 15

ERG POWER: KEY FIGURES

Appendix

Page 26: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

26

2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011

53 82 Adjusted RC EBITDA 11 19

56 102 - Marketing 14 26

(3) (20) - Inland refining and logistics (3) (6)

(59) (60) Adjusted Depreciation (14) (15)

(6) 22 Adjusted RC EBIT (3) 4

37 38 Investments 13 13

11.2% 11.8% TOTALERG retail market share(2) 12.1% 12.0%

1.0% 1.0% EOS retail market share 0.8% 1.1%

INTEGRATED DOWNSTREAM: KEY FIGURES(1)

Appendix

(1) Figures are adjusted for 51% stake in TOTALERG as of October 1, 2010(2) Estimated market share referring to 100% of TOTALERG

Tough scenario led to weak Marketing results

Page 27: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

27

2012 2011 Euro millions 4Q 2012 4Q 2011

107 89 Gross refining margin 21 6

(32) (76) Adjusted RC EBITDA (1) (30)

(38) (49) Adjusted Depreciation (6) (13)

(70) (124) Adjusted RC EBIT (7) (43)

21(2) 39 Investments 7 7

COASTAL REFINING: KEY FIGURES(1)

Appendix

(1) Figures are adjusted for ERG’s stake in ISAB Srl (40% from January to August 2012)(2) 2012 investments include 20% ISAB investments (€7mn) as of September 2012

Improved Refining environment

Page 28: ERG - Fourth Quarter and 2012 Results

28

1,179 1,023

68334%

27%21%

Adj. Net Debt30/09/2012

Cash Flowfrom operation

WorkingCapital

CAPEXFinancial Charges

Adj. Net Debt31/12/2012

NFP 51% TotalErg and

50% LUKERG Renew

Net Debt31/12/2012reported

Leverage

4Q 2012 ADJUSTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT

37(209)

0

1,02313 7

Wind Acquisition in

Romania

Taxesand Other

(108)

(349)99

722

513

Appendix