CASE STUDY: In a global age of high speed rail, why is Australia lagging behind?

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Gen Okajima

Central Japan Railway Co. Sydney

Building the Backbone of the Nation

-The Japanese Experience – 50 years-

NSW Transport Summit - Sydney 8/8/2013

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Tokaido Shinkansen

• The World’s FIRST High-Speed Rail

- In operation since 1964 funded by World Bank

(*French TGV since 1981, German ICE since 1991)

• Even now, the Leading High Speed Rail in the World

Series 0 (1964)

1st Generation

Series N700 (2007)

5th Generation

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Key Features of the Tokaido Shinkansen

ZERO passenger injuries or fatalities

from train accidents

- Safety

転用

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- Punctuality

minutes / train *1 *2

*1 : Including delays due to uncontrollable causes, such as natural disasters

*2 : Standard for train delays; JR Central : “delay” = >1 minute, Europe : “delay” = >15 minutes

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6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 ・・・ Tokyo

Shinagawa

Nagoya

Shin-Osaka

Shin-Yokohama

Kyoto

Train Schedule Diagrams as of March 2012

*1:Excluding extra service

5

- Mass Transport


323 trains/day*1

386,000

3 min. intvl at peak time

passengers / day

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Contents

• Overview of Australian HSR

• Impact on your life

• Impact on your society

• Challenges

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Contents




• Challenges

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Australian HSR

Line 2

Completion: 2058

$64B

10 million trips(‘65)

Line 1

Completion: 2040

$50B

18 million trips(‘65)

•Benefit $2.30/ a dollar spent

•Revenue covers ongoing costs

SYD

MEL

BEN

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Preferred HSR Service

Less than 3 hours to both Melbourne and Brisbane from

Sydney

Operation departure between

5am to 11pm

Super Express stopping only at

capitals: departing every 10-20

minutes

Express stopping all stations:

departing every half an hour

780 seats /set of trains with

reserved seats and non-reserved seats

$86 between Sydney and Melbourne

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Contents




• Challenges

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Your Life with RELIABLE High Speed Rail

Between connected cities

More visitors from regional and urban areas

Better commuter connections

Easy business trips to Brisbane, Melbourne and others

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Your Life with RELIABLE High Speed Rail

Model Case

7:00 Leave Epping station

7:35 Arrive at Central

7:45 Catch Express HSR

10:29 Arrive at Sthn Cross

164mins Use computer, wifi,

prepare for meetings,

relax, etc.

10:30 Walk to meeting in CBD

7:00 Leave Epping station

7:55 Arrive at Domestic

8:05 Check-in

8:30 Board flight

8:45 Flight departs

10:20 Flight arrives

65mins Use computer etc.

10:35 Take taxi into CBD

11:00 Arrive in CBD

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Commuter Passengers

Tokyo Atami Mishima Shizuoka

0km 180km 120km 104km Distance

JAPAN

1 hour (270km/hr at maximum)

Common Shinkansen commuting distance

Sydney Newcastle

0km 160km

Gosford

80km

AUSTRALIA

Sydney

0km

Goulburn

180km

Southern

Highlands

98km

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Contents




• Challenges

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1. Connection of Communities

2. Regional Development

3. Business Opportunities

4. Sustainable Lifestyle

Impact of Shinkansen on Society

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Tokyo Osaka Hakata

After Tokaido & Sanyo

Shinkansen opened

Tokyo

Hakata

Ref: A GENERALIZED SOLUTION OF TIME-DISTANCE MAPPING, E. Shimizu et al. Univ. of Tokyo, 2004

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Kyushu Shinkansen Section A in 2004 (A+B: 3h40m -> 2h10m)

Full section in 2011 (A+B: 2h10m -> 1h19m)

A

B

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From Hiroshima

region

From

Osaka

region

1. Connection of Communities– Visitors

Ref. Kumamoto Prefecture Conference Material 2012

+33%

+54% +407%

+162%

By any

modes

Business 33%

Returning

home 17%

Tourism13%

Others 37% Purpose to

Kumamoto (Yellow circle) Shinkansen Only

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1964

Shin-Yokohama Station

Immediately after opening

2012 Shin-Yokohama Station now

2. Regional Development –Shinyokohama Sta.

*Introduction of HSR promotes development of the areas around its stations

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Shin-Yokohama Station


Number of Boarding Passengers (Daily Average)

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1995

2012 Shinagawa Station today

Before opening

Shinagawa Station

Shinagawa Station was opened at 2003

2. Regional Development –Shinagawa Sta.

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2. Regional Development (Economic Growth)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Unit: ¥ trillion (for GDP), 100 million passenger-kilometres (for Ridership)

GDP

Ridership

1964 2009

(FY)

1970 1980 1990 2000

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Early1990’s Opened in 2000

JR Central Towers -Nagoya Station-

3.Business Opportunities

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Operating Revenues of

Consolidated Subsidiaries

•Merchandise

•Real Estate

•Hotels

•Travel agency

etc

JPY 511 B

(App. $5.1B) (Mar 2012 AU$1=JPY100)

Creation of Affiliated Business Jobs

3.Business Opportunities

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(90MJ/seat)

8 times

Comparison of Energy Consumption per Passenger Seat

Comparison of CO2 emissions per Passenger Seat

Series N700

“Nozomi”

Airplane

(B777-200)

Series N700

“Nozomi”

Airplane

(B777-200)

Basis

12 times

(4.2kg-CO2/seat)

(50kg-CO2/seat)

(746MJ/seat)

Basis

Source: Calculation based on running performance (JR Central figures)Series N700 "Nozomi" (Tokyo~Shin-Osaka) :JR Central calculations with reference to ANA CSR Report 2011

Environmentally Friendly – Energy & CO2

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Contents




• Challenges

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Challenges

•Financing

•Cost Effectiveness

•Noise and Vibration

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Challenges

•Financing

•Cost Effective


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Financing – Practice in Japan (First Leg)

Total costs : US$1B

•Loan from World Bank: US$90M

(in 1963 terms. US$1=360yen)

-Interest rate 5.75%, 20 years (repaid in 16.5 years)

JRC (operator) owns its infrastructure

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Government

Central : 82%

Local: 18%

Infrastructure

Lease

Operator

Fee

Financing – Practice in Japan (Since 1997)

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Financing – JBIC

Japan Bank for International Cooperation

- Policy finance institution

- 100% owned by the Japanese Government

- Outstanding loan/equity/guarantee : >JPY13,000B

- Financing for overseas infrastructure as well

HSR system is an eligible sector

As of Mar 2013

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Financing – JBIC

Case in UK (2012)

UK

Gov.

Rolling stock Provider Lease / Maintenance / Depot

Operator Availability

Payment

JBIC

JBIC finance

•￡1.0B (45% of total debt (2.2B))

•30 years

Others

Loan Concession

Franchise

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Financing – Value Capture JRC examples

Restaurants

Souvenir shops

Restaurants

City Hotel

Leased offices

Department Store

Business Hotel

Shopping mall

Resort Hotel

Hotel

Restaurant

Shopping mall

Leased offices

Shopping

mall Warehouse

Parking

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Challenges

•Financing

•Cost Effective


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Capital Costs of the 1st Section (SYD-CAN)

Tunnels6.6

Stations, 2.5 Earthworks,

2.4 Bridges and

viaducts, 1.6

General civil

works, 1.2

Land, 1.3

Permanent way, 1

Power, 0.9 Signalling, 0.4

Total $18B (indicative)

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TGV

Size of lanes Small Large

Shinkansen 63㎡

100㎡

Tunnel Cross Section

Source: Japanese Government, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism

Challenges – Cost Effective Construction(1)

Smaller Infrastructure •Smaller tunnels

•Less land acquisition

4.3m 4.5m

TGV-POS

LGV Est

<320km/h

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Challenges – Cost Effective Construction(2)

Less sturdy structure with light body

t

Axle load

* Source : ”World High Speed Rolling Stock,” UIC Website, May 2009

5 10 15 20

1

2

3

17

16

11.2

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Traction power 45%

Station maintenance

4%

Infrastructure operation and

maintenance 6%

Train crew/station

staff 11%

Administration 11%

Ticketing cost 11%

Rolling stock maintenance

12%

Ongoing Costs of Sydney-Melbourne section

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Reducing the cost of traction power

Light rolling stock

Regenerative braking system

Streamlined car body with low air resistance

Challenges – Cost Effective Operation (1)

*JRC simulation based on public data assuming 50km level tracks between stations the simulation used data from.

TGV: “TGV POS PREPARES to enter service,” Railway Gazette International, Dec. 2006, P784-785

ICE: “ ICE Multiple Unit for the European High-Speed Rail Services of German Rail (DB AG) and Netherlands Railways (NS),”

Technical Information, Siemens AG

Traction power could be much reduced Based on our simulation* and Phase 2 Report

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N700 TGV-POS ICE-3JRC simulation based on public data assuming 50km level tracks between stations the simulation used data from.

TGV: “TGV POS PREPARES to enter service,” Railway Gazette International, Dec. 2006, P784-785

ICE: “ ICE Multiple Unit for the European High-Speed Rail Services of German Rail (DB AG) and Netherlands Railways (NS),”

Technical Information, Siemens AG

Energy Consumption per Seat (Wh/km/seat)

26

57 55

Challenges – Energy Consumption Simulation

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Less damage to infrastructure

t

Axle load

* Source : ”World High Speed Rolling Stock,” UIC Website, May 2009

5 10 15 20

1

2

3

17

16

11.2

Challenges – Cost Effective Operation (2)

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Challenges

•Financing

•Cost Effective


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Less noise and vibration with

light and streamlined body

Challenges – Noise and Vibration

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Concluding Comments

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Australia ready to take advantage of HSR

•Decent inner-city public transportation

•High travel demand (not population)

•Financial capacity (high credit rating)

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Thank you for your attention.

Please feel free to contact us at:

Central Japan Railway Company--Sydney Suite 501, Level 5

20 Hunter Street, Sydney 2000 E-mail: [email protected]

Phone: (02) 9221 6922