4th Bi-Annual Border to Border Transportation ConferenceSouth Padre Island, TexasNovember 13-15, 2012

US-Mexico Cross-Border Freight Traffic Trends

Geza Pesti and Rafael Aldrete-SanchezCenter for International Intelligent Transportation Research

Texas A&M Transportation Institute

Significance• Imports from Mexico Using Land Modes of Transport (1996-

2011 average)

• Following the 2007 global financial crisis, U.S. trade sharply declined worldwide. • In 2009, imports from Mexico fall by 39.2%1. • Has there been a sustained recovery after 2009?

• Identify trends in freight activities across the US-Mexico border

• Quantify temporal and spatial variations in surface trade.

ObjectivesAnalyze cross-border freight activities by

• Mode of transport

• Commodities

• Border states

• Ports and destination states

Approach

Trans-Border Surface Freight Database of the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Primary Data Source:

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

100000000000

200000000000

300000000000

400000000000

Surface Trade between U.S. and Mexico

19% 18%11% 13%

23%

-5%-1%

0%

12%7%

13%5% 2%

-14%

28%

15%

Early 2000s recession

2007 global financial crisis

Imports57%

Exports43%

Surface Trade(2004-2011 average)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Millions USD

Import

Export

Surface Trade between U.S. and Mexico

Trade by Surface Mode

Truck82%

Rail16%

Other2%

Truck80%

Rail15%

Other5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Millions USD

All Surface Modes

Truck

Rail

Import

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Millions USD

All Surface Modes

Truck

Rail

Export

Seasonal Variation

Surface Trade of US States with MexicoRanked Based on Value of Traded Goods (2005-2011)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Texas

CaliforniaMichigan

Arizona Illinois

Mill

ions

USD

Freight Flow by Commodities

Change in the freight value was evaluated based on six commodity groups2:

• Group 1: Food, beverages, agricultural commodities (HS-code: 1-24)

• Group 2: Minerals, chemicals, plastic, fossil fuels (HS-code: 25-40)

• Group 3: Wood, fabrics, paper products, books (HS-code: 41-71)

• Group 4: Metals, metallic materials (HS-code: 72-81)

• Group 5: Manufactured goods (HS-code: 82-96)

• Group 6: Other goods (HS-code: 97-99)

Top Five Ports of Entry

Over 80 % of cross-border trade between the US and Mexico is concentrated at the following five ports:

• Laredo, TX

• Hidalgo, TX

• El Paso, TX

• Otay Mesa Station, CA

• Nogales, AZ

Food, beverages, agricultural commodi-

ties

Minerals, chemicals, plastic, fossil fuels

Wood, fabrics, paper products, books

Metals, metallic goods

Manufactured goods

Other goods

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10

20112010200920082007

0 10 200 10 20 30 0 10

Laredo El Paso HidalgoOtay Mesa Nogales

Import from Mexico (Billion USD)

Import by Commodity Groups

Food, beverages, agricultural commodi-

ties

Minerals, chemicals, plastic, fossil fuels

Wood, fabrics, paper products, books

Metals, metallic goods

Manufactured goods

Other goods

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10

20112010200920082007

0 10 200 10 20 30 0 10

Laredo El Paso HidalgoOtay Mesa Nogales

Export to Mexico (Billion USD)

Export by Commodity Groups

Summary

Trends and spatial variations in US-Mexico cross-border freight by

• Mode of transport• Commodities• Border states• Ports and destination states

Results in: CIITR Research Brief

US-Mexico Cross-Border Freight Traffic Trends

Looked at…

Will be interesting to see ….• Can the 2010-2011 positive trends be

sustained?• What will be the impact of the predicted

“Fiscal Cliff” after January