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ICAIA 2015Intelligent vehicles and Autonomy

Presented by: Alexander RichardsAssistant ProfessorUniversity of Central Missouri Warrensburg, MO

A little about meSIUC Automotive AlumHold a B.A.S. in Automotive TechnologyMS.ed. In Workforce EducationED.d. in Educational Leadership and Policy Analysis in progress University of MissouriIn addition to my graduate assistantship at SIU spent several years working in the Parts and service industry as a technician.Have been with University of Central Missouri (UCMO) for approximately 2 1/2 years.This is my first professional presentationSo no hecklers!But I do invite open discussion/questioning

ObjectivesAnswer the question; what is an intelligent vehicle?History ofThe birth of autonomyWhy do we need one?Current TrendsSome EntertainmentReferences (Because I currently live in APA 6th edition)

The birth of autonomyConventional wisdom would say that well just take these driver assistance systems and incrementally improve them and one day theyll turn into self driving cars. This is like me saying if I work really hard at jumping, one day Ill fly.

-Chris Urmson - Google

The beginning of Intelligent vehiclesIn the 60s and 70s the US dept. of transportation began researching intelligent vehicles with the advent of the ERGSElectronic Route Guidance SystemGave drivers a better idea of traffic patterns, best strategies for negotiating traffic and best options for routes to destinations.What current technology does this sound like?What problems did this technology face?Ideas began to fall off and research soon slowed until the 1980sThis was the emergence of the Advanced Vehicle Control Systems or AVCS for short.

Firebird II7

The beginning of Intelligent vehiclesIntelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS)Research group dedicated to showcase this new technology to the world and proof the idea1997 Full scale demo to the public on I-15 in San Diego.These systems were collectively called the Automated Highway System (AHS)Included fully and partially automated vehiclesNobody died

The beginning of Intelligent vehiclesThe Automated Highway System and the demonstration was not just about showcasing a fully automated vehicle.It was mostly about showcasing technology that would make a fully automated vehicle possibleKeep in mind this was 1997 that this was demonstratedMost of this technology and the theories behind it are over 20 years old.Just 10 years prior this technology would have been thought as unachievable or merely science fiction.Today we see many of these systems being employedIncluding full autonomy

This is what a cell phonelooked like in 1997

So what is autonomy?Autonomy 1. the right or state of self-government, esp when limited2. a state, community, or individual possessing autonomy3. freedom to determine one's own actions, behavior, etc Ironic huh?How many devices do you own that are autonomous?Meaning how many devices do things for you that normally 20 or 30 years ago had to be done by you personally?Including the vacuum that we mentioned at the start of this sectionPoll Everywhere

Intelligence is everywhere sort ofTake your smart phone for exampleIs it intelligent?Or intelligently designed?Computers can only do what we tell them to doThe reliability of things such as autonomy depends on our ability to foresee all possible situations, conclusions and consequences or outcomes and select the perceived best action.Something the human brain is able to do on the fly with remarkable accuracyComputers can react more repeat ably with more accuracy and speed, however can only react to stimuli that we provide them through switches, sensors, and data.This is the difference between man and machineBMW's that drift themselves

So why us?My opinion is it's a bridge too far to go to fully autonomous cars.

-Elon Musk

So why machine intelligence on the road?1. SafetyThere are two types of drivingDriving at the limit of control (as typical in automobile racing)Driving to work (normal, everyday driving, often a hindrance to productivity.)From a mental cognition standpoint A typical driver in an automobile race uses anywhere from 88-95% of his or her brain function to calculate and make decisions based on where they are and where they think they should be.Stanford Study A typical driver going to work is bored.My normal commute vs. my commute while witnessing a bad accident

So why machine intelligence on the road?Mental cognition being low while driving makes us susceptible to inappropriate or slow reactions to unexpected situationsWe are ill-preparedBoth our own lapses in judgment and especially other drivers lapses in judgment can have an effect on our outcomeThe speeders accident argument

So why machine intelligence on the road?2. ConvenienceNot only do many younger people of the current generation see driving as a choreMany do not want or delay getting drivers licensesSource: AAA study in August of 2013Parking assist systems

So why machine intelligence on the road?Computers are predictableHumans are notNo matter what the situation; A+B always = CIn theory, a fully automated highway system would prevent vehicle collisions altogetherIn the interim, driving aids are being incorporated into todays vehicles to help drivers make better decisionsDiscussion starter: Is this making drivers MORE complacent since their mental tasklist has been made shorter?This is the modern day Automatic vs. Manual transmission discussionChris Urmson Working around the least reliable part of the car; The driver

Current technologyMy personal fascination with the power of the crowd has been growing: Exactly what can a 'crowd' accomplish? We know crowds can raise billions of dollars, create Wikipedia, and even design and build small autonomous drones. But how about something large and complex like designing a new car, and maybe someday even a spaceship?

-Peter Diamandis

So what is an intelligent vehicle?Intelligent vehicle (IV) systems sense the driving environment and provide information to or assist the driver in inputs to the vehicle systems to maintain stability, traction, avoid crashes, or simply reroute the consumer around a traffic jam.Since autonomy is a bit away from widespread production Lets take a look at what todays Autonomous vehicle looks like

Intelligence TodayParking Assist (Just about everyone has it)ActivePassiveDSRCProximity Sensors (Everyone is required to have it)Radar Assisted Cruise (GM supercruise, Teslas autopilot etc.)Active PassiveStability control (Again, everyone is required to have it)ActivePassive

Active and PassiveActiveIn this case, Active refers to the vehicle itself or systemThe car may make decisions and execute tasks on its own without driver inputPassiveSystem keeps watch and or will intervene to aid the driver in reacting to a condition

Active Response Stability ControlOversteer situationWithout driver input; Input to module: vehicles sensors (Wheel speed, lateral accelerometer)Evaluate conditionCorrect condition by reducing throttle (regardless of driver pedal position)If that doesnt workCorrect condition by applying brakes to one or more wheels

Passive ResponseVehicle merely hinders the effect a driver can have on the handling characteristics of the car.It is taking input from driver, recognizing a situation, but not acting FOR the driver such as by applying brakes or closing the throttle.Non-ETC equipped car cable throttlePowertrain module and stability control module no longer have control over throttle blade openingTo reduce engine power the module must retard ignition, kill fuel injectors or upshift the transmission, all of which have been common strategies.

Todays Autonomous Vehicle[sic: Detroit carmakers believe] the prospect of a fully self-driving car arriving anytime soon is 'pure science fiction.'Raj Rajkumar Director of Autonomous Driving ResearchCarnegie-Mellon University

Todays Autonomous CarsTodays Autonomous vehicles have had a profound successCurrent Legislation is preventing further testing

Googles Cooperative programV2V communication and software update abilityAllows Google to upload and maintain data from every circumstance cars encounter.Collective learning means many of these vehicles are exponentially learning and already possess hundreds of years of driving experienceSomething we can never hope to match.

Google Lidar Data

An excerpt from Chris Urmson

Levels of Automation (NHTSA)

Vehicle Autonomy todayBy 2016, Mercedes plans to introduce "Autobahn PilotBy 2016, Mobileye to release hands-free driving technology for highways.By early 2017, the US DOT hopes to publish a rule mandating vehicle-to-vehicle communication. GM expects Cadillac to have first adoption of the technologyBy 2018, Elon Musk expects Tesla Motors to have developed mature serial production version of fully self-driving cars. (Level 4)By 2018, Mobileye expects autonomous capabilities for country roads and city traffic.By 2018, Nissan anticipates to have a feature that can allow the vehicle manoeuver its way on multi-lane highways.By 2020, Volvo envisages their vehicles will effectively be "crash free." By 2020, GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Nissan, BMW, Renault, Tesla and Google all expect to sell vehicles that can drive themselves at least part of the time. (Level 3)By 2020, Google autonomous car project head's goal to have all outstanding problems with the autonomous car be resolved.By 2024, Jaguar expects to release an autonomous car.By 2025, Daimler and Ford expect autonomous vehicles on the market. Ford predicts it will have the first mass-market autonomous vehicle, but released no target date.By 2025, most new GM vehicles will have automated driving functions as well as vehicle-to-vehicle communication technology.

By 2035, Navigant Research forecasts that autonomous vehicles will gradually gain traction in the market over the coming two decades and by 2035, sales of autonomous vehicles will reach 95.4 million annually, representing 75% of all light-duty vehicle sales.By 2040, expert members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have estimated that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous.

The biggest argument for autonomyStatistically, just under four people have died driving on American roads in the time it took to do this presentation136 have died globallyWill you drive home today? Or be DRIVEN home today?

References/SourcesAutonomy. (2015) Definition. Retrieved From: http://dictionary.refer ence.com/browse/autonomy?s=tGerdes, C. J. (2012) Exploring driver pyschophysiology. Stanford. Retrieved from: http://revs.stanford.edu/research/644AAA.org. (2013) Timing of drivers license acquisition and reasons for delay among young people in the United States 2012. Retrieved from: https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/ResearchDrivenQ32013.pdfNational Highway Traffic and Safety Administration. (2013). Automated Vehicles Policy. Retrieved from: http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/ rulemaking/pdf/Automated_Vehicles_Policy.pdfAll photos and videos used under fair license for educational use only and may not be used or represented outside of ICAIA otherwise.