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Farmville Farmers Outnumber Real Farmers --- WHY? Angry Birds passes one billion download –- WHY? We don’t know! We don’t know why something go viral. We cannot prescribe a formula. BUT – We can be sure similar unexpected events will happen again … and … again … and … again. We live in a Hyper-Connected world. Hyper-Connectivity gives rise to an intelligence of it own where 2 + 2 may be 22! Hyper-Connectivity leads to unexpected events which changes our world view ... alters our business strategy ... alters our technology adoption cycle. Do traditional technology adoption model like "Technology Adoption Lifecycle" formulated by Everett Rogers & Geoffrey Moore or the "Hype-Cycle" formulated by Gartner reflect the current reality? In Gartner’s "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" - 2011: only 1 of the 7 technologies mentioned in "climbing the slope of enlightenment" ever went through the "peak of inflated expectation". 2007 to 2011: only 3 of the 15 technologies ever mentioned in "climbing the slope of enlightenment" ever went through the "peak of inflated expectation". Almost two-third of them originated in the consumer space. Success of Technologies are becoming unexpected and are driven my individual users. You notice it only when it succeeds. You are suddenly hit by the success like a "Stealth Bomber". Like a Stealth Bomber it hit you without notice! And you will find that your customers have already adopted the technology. But why should you care? You should care because in the Hyper-connected world … can you afford NOT to connect with you customer? As the world around us have changed ... so has the use of Information Technology. Over the years IT has gone through 3 phases: Phase I: Was about automating manual processes like payroll & accounting Phase II: Was about Information Systems … about providing the right information for decision making Phase III: Was about Information Technology being part of every Product and Service In Phase II - Business Strategy lead to Enterprise Architecture and Choice of Technology was secondary to EA. In Phase III - Technology Adoption around us modifies our Business Strategy! Question to all Enterprise Architect --- Are you ready for this change?
Citation preview
Farmville Farmers Outnumber Real Farmers ---
WHY?
Angry Birds passes one billion download –-
WHY?
On 21st November, 2011, Kolaveri became the ‘most
searched video’ on YouTube ---
WHY?
After two and a half year of near hibernation our Yammer
usage suddenly took off without any internal promotion ---
WHY?
Answer – We don’t know!
We don’t know why something go viral
We cannot predict it
We cannot prescribe a formula
BUT – We can be sure similar unexpected events will
happen again … and … again … and … again
Black Swan = Expect the Unexpected
Till the discovery of Black Swan in Australia in the 18th century everybody
thought swans are only white
Wired Communication
Personal Computing
Hyperlinking
Wireless Communication
Social Networking
Search
Hyper-Connected World
We live in a Hyper-Connected world
Hyper-connectivity leads to …
And
By the age of 5 our brain size reaches about 80% for the
adult size --- What happens after that?
We develop interconnections among the brain cells –
the learning, the intelligence is in the interconnection
In last 32,000 years our brain size has decreased --- Does it
make us less intelligent?
Our intelligence is in the interconnectivity –
Inside the brain, derived from social interaction
Hyper-Connectivity
Where 2 + 2 may be 22!
Gives rise to an intelligence of it own
Is there a predefined architecture?
Is there a flight plan?
Is there a search algorithm?
Hyper-Connectivity …
… which changes our world view …
… leads to unexpected event …
… which alters our business strategy …
… which alters our technology adoption cycle …
Technology
Trigger Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Exp
ecta
tio
n
Time
Peak of Inflated
Expectation
Trough of
Disillusionment
Gartner Hype Cycle and
Technology Adoption Lifecycle
Plotted together
Ad
op
tio
n R
ate
Everett Rogers & Geoffrey Moore
Do they work any more?
Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies - 2011
Appeared directly in
“Slope of Enlightenment” First appeared in
“Trough of Disillusionment”
2011
2010
2011
2010 2007
2010
Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies - 2011
Technology Climbing the slope First Appeared in
Enterprise Instant Messaging 2007 “Sliding through the trough” on 2006
Basic Web Services 2008 Appeared directly
SOA 2008 “Sliding through the trough” on 2004
Tablet PC 2008 2003 or earlier
Corporate Blogging 2009 “Sliding through the trough” on 2008
Electronic Paper 2009 2003 or earlier
Wikis 2009 2004
Biometric Authentication Methods 2010 Appeared directly
Interactive TV 2010 “Sliding through the trough” on 2010
Internet Micropayment Systems 2010 Appeared directly
Predictive Analytics 2010 Appeared directly
Consumerization 2011 Appeared directly
Idea Management 2011 “Sliding through the trough” on 2007
Mobile Application Stores 2011 “Sliding through the trough” on 2010
QR/Color Code 2011 Appeared directly
Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies – 2007-11
Success of Technologies are becoming
unexpected and are driven my individual users
You notice it only when it succeeds
You are suddenly hit by the success like a …
Like a Stealth Bomber it
hit you without notice!
… and …
Consumers may adopt
them first!
… but why should you care?
In the Hyper-connected world …
… can you afford NOT to connect with your customer?
As the world around us have changed
So has the use of Information Technology
Phase I
Was about automating manual
processes like payroll & accounting
Phase II
Was about Information Systems …
about providing the right information
for decision making
Business Strategy
Enterprise Architecture
Technology
In Phase II
Technology was
Secondary
What about Phase III?
Information Technology is now part of every
Product and Service
TESCO’s virtual supermarket in a subway station
Triggered by the proliferation of
smartphones that can read QR Codes
Business Strategy
Enterprise Architecture
Technology Business Strategy
Enterprise Architecture
Technology Adoption
In Phase III
Technology adoption by the customer
can dictate our business strategy
In Phase III
Technology may
become primary
Are you ready for this change?
Question to all Enterprise Architect
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