Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia:Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia:moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism in the Nile Basin?moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism in the Nile Basin?

Ana Elisa CascãoAna Elisa CascãoTransboundary Water SeminarTransboundary Water SeminarStockholm, 13 December 2011Stockholm, 13 December 2011

The Nile Basin: between ideals and politicsThe Nile Basin: between ideals and politics

World Bank, 2000

Verhoeven, 2011

The Nile: a long history of skewed The Nile: a long history of skewed bilateralismbilateralism

• British colonial period• Anglo-Egyptian Condominium

• 1929 Nile Waters Agreement • 1959 Agreement for the Full

Utilisation of the Nile Waters

• Several Infrastructures (dams and irrigation schemes): Sennar (1925), Jebel Aulia (1937), Owen Falls (1954), Khashm El-Girba (1964), Aswan High Dam (1971), Roseires (1971), Jonglei Canal (1984...)

The Nile region: cocktail of water & politicsThe Nile region: cocktail of water & politics

1990s: the Nile gets multilateral1990s: the Nile gets multilateral

• Multilateral dialogue among riparians (including legal negotiations

• Strong technical commitment, but ‘soft’ political commitment

• Financial and political support from external donors

• Promotion of a ‘Shared Vision’ (SVP)• Identification and preparation of

Investment Projects (SAPs)• Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies on

joint projects

• Launching of Cooperative Regional Assessement (CRAs)

• Promotion One System Inventory (No-borders analysis)

Eastern Nile Basin: trilateral cooperationEastern Nile Basin: trilateral cooperation

• Joint collaboration, identification and selection of projects/infrastructures

• Joint Multipurpose Projects• Maximisation of regional benefits

• Scoping Study• Scenarios• Benefit and Cost Sharing

• Option Number 1: Blue Nile CascadeBlue Nile Cascade

• Lack of institutional/legal ‘background’

‘Opportunities for Cooperative Water Resources Development on the Eastern Nile: Risks and Rewards’ (ENTRO, 2008)

The cooperation cascade > > > >The cooperation cascade > > > >

Meanwhile... Unilateralism had been the fashion!Meanwhile... Unilateralism had been the fashion!

2011: Tipping points in the Nile hydropolitics2011: Tipping points in the Nile hydropolitics

Grand Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile: Grand Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile: an unilateral Ethiopian project?an unilateral Ethiopian project?

Once upon a time...Once upon a time... A bilateral project ‘sold’ as unilateral...

An unilateral speech calling for multilateral cooperation...

Trilateral cooperation starts in the Eastern Nile for the 1st time in history

Finally a riparians-driven cooperation?Finally a riparians-driven cooperation?

‘We can make the issue of the Grand Renaissance Dam

something useful. This dam, in conjunction with

the other dams, can be a path for development and

construction between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt’

(Egypt's caretaker Prime-Minister

Essam Sharaf, November 2011)

Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’

Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’

Thanks for your attention!

ana.cascao@siwi.org