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Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia: Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia: moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism in the Nile Basin? in the Nile Basin? Ana Elisa Cascão Ana Elisa Cascão Transboundary Water Seminar Transboundary Water Seminar Stockholm, 13 December 2011 Stockholm, 13 December 2011

Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

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Page 1: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia:Grand Millenium Dam in Ethiopia:moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism in the Nile Basin?moving from multilateralism towards unilateralism in the Nile Basin?

Ana Elisa CascãoAna Elisa CascãoTransboundary Water SeminarTransboundary Water SeminarStockholm, 13 December 2011Stockholm, 13 December 2011

Page 2: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

The Nile Basin: between ideals and politicsThe Nile Basin: between ideals and politics

World Bank, 2000

Verhoeven, 2011

Page 3: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

The Nile: a long history of skewed The Nile: a long history of skewed bilateralismbilateralism

• British colonial period• Anglo-Egyptian Condominium

• 1929 Nile Waters Agreement • 1959 Agreement for the Full

Utilisation of the Nile Waters

• Several Infrastructures (dams and irrigation schemes): Sennar (1925), Jebel Aulia (1937), Owen Falls (1954), Khashm El-Girba (1964), Aswan High Dam (1971), Roseires (1971), Jonglei Canal (1984...)

Page 4: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

The Nile region: cocktail of water & politicsThe Nile region: cocktail of water & politics

Page 5: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

1990s: the Nile gets multilateral1990s: the Nile gets multilateral

• Multilateral dialogue among riparians (including legal negotiations

• Strong technical commitment, but ‘soft’ political commitment

• Financial and political support from external donors

• Promotion of a ‘Shared Vision’ (SVP)• Identification and preparation of

Investment Projects (SAPs)• Pre-feasibility and feasibility studies on

joint projects

• Launching of Cooperative Regional Assessement (CRAs)

• Promotion One System Inventory (No-borders analysis)

Page 6: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Eastern Nile Basin: trilateral cooperationEastern Nile Basin: trilateral cooperation

• Joint collaboration, identification and selection of projects/infrastructures

• Joint Multipurpose Projects• Maximisation of regional benefits

• Scoping Study• Scenarios• Benefit and Cost Sharing

• Option Number 1: Blue Nile CascadeBlue Nile Cascade

• Lack of institutional/legal ‘background’

‘Opportunities for Cooperative Water Resources Development on the Eastern Nile: Risks and Rewards’ (ENTRO, 2008)

Page 7: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

The cooperation cascade > > > >The cooperation cascade > > > >

Page 8: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Meanwhile... Unilateralism had been the fashion!Meanwhile... Unilateralism had been the fashion!

Page 9: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

2011: Tipping points in the Nile hydropolitics2011: Tipping points in the Nile hydropolitics

Page 10: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Grand Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile: Grand Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile: an unilateral Ethiopian project?an unilateral Ethiopian project?

Page 11: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Once upon a time...Once upon a time... A bilateral project ‘sold’ as unilateral...

An unilateral speech calling for multilateral cooperation...

Trilateral cooperation starts in the Eastern Nile for the 1st time in history

Page 12: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Finally a riparians-driven cooperation?Finally a riparians-driven cooperation?

‘We can make the issue of the Grand Renaissance Dam

something useful. This dam, in conjunction with

the other dams, can be a path for development and

construction between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt’

(Egypt's caretaker Prime-Minister

Essam Sharaf, November 2011)

Page 13: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’

Page 14: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’Implications of Great Renaissance Dam ‘issue’

Page 15: Grand Millenium Dam: from multilateralism to unilateralism in the Nile Basin

Thanks for your attention!

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