CCAFS Kaffrine forecast-coraf_science week

CLIMATE RISK MANGEMENT IN WEST AFRICA

communicating probabilistic seasonal forecasting to

improve farmers’ management decision in Kaffrine, Senegal

Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIMRobert Zougmoré, CCAFS

Burkina, flooding 2009, courtesy by Guillaume

“ The impact of climate change will fall disproportionately on

the world’’’’s poorest countries, many of them here in Africa. Poor people already live on the front lines of pollution, disaster,

and the degradation of resources and land. For them,

adaptation is a matter of sheer survival ”Kofi Annan

CLIMATE IMPACTS

� Rain-fed agriculture : shift in seasonality, total, onset, distribution (food security, population)

� climate related disease : vector born diseases and water related diseases

� hydropower management : dam, river flow,

� flood management in a rapid and unplanned urbanization

Climate information for development

� Risk associated with climate variability

� Better management using climate information

� Reduce vulnerability : poverty, health, hunger, …

� Learning process : decision making tool

Many efforts made on climate research

PRES-AO (11)

GHACOF (22)

PRES-AC (3)

SARCOF (11)

PRESANOR

Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI, June 2009

EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT

IN KAFFRINE, SENEGAL

Building a team of stakeholders:

multi-disciplinary approach

� Ministry of agriculture extensions (SDDR, 5 participants)

� Volunteers from World Vision (WV, 5)

� Agricultural advisers (ANCAR, 5)

� National agricultural research institute (ISRA, 1)

� National Farmers Union (Japandoo, 15)

� Organization of women producers (3)

� Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation 2)

� Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS, 5)

� Individual farmers (13)

Building trust for a long partnership

Building on local knowledge:

High humidity and high temperatures

can explain some of their indicators �

“Stronger monsoon”

« When the wind is changingdirection to fetch the rain »

Establishing common ground :

Doing quite the same thing BUT

Better observing system

More reliable storage capacity (use of

numbers, maps, computers, …)

SETTING THE STAGE

Using historical forecast (memory):

Identify wet and dry years

Introduce normal year

Probability shift toward category : RISK

Link to the crop, harvest

Strategies and decision :

team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist

“Knowledge should precede action”

farmer in kaffrine

TRAINING AND DISCUSSIONS

TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE :

“WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”

WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY IF

YOU’VE FORSEEN A DRY YEAR

• Crop requiring less water• Short-cycle variety• Bet on the lowest rainfall

threshold observed in the past• Reduce cultivated area in the

farm

Seasonal forecast communicated to

farmers

EVALUATION : FORECAST AND PROCESS

PARTICIPANTS :33 paysans, services techniques locaux (eaux et forets, ANCAR,

Agriculture, Vision Mondiale, ), organisations paysannes (JAPANDO,

FONGS, …)

THREE GROUPS :1.17 received and used somehow the seasonal forecast

2.03 received but didn’t used it

3.13 never seen or heard of the seasonal forecast

QUESTIONS ASKED1. What made you take a different strategy last year : say anything

2. Problems encountered ?

3. Recommandations ?

� Partnership and trust (social dimension)

� Invest on the long term and multi-disciplinary

(complex and complicate)

� Communication, communication,

communication (content, format, means,

medium)

� Ideally has a package :

�Climate forecast : seasonal and onset

�Opportunity : access to fund (wet forecast)

�Alternative : index insurance (dry forecast)

WHAT WE LEARNT

THANK YOU