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HIGH-RESOLUTION
PALEOLIMNOLOGY OPENS NEW
MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVES
FOR LAKES ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE WARMING
ME Perga1, V. Frossard 2,3, J.P. Jenny1,4,5,6, B.
Alric1, F. Arnaud4, V. Berthon1, J. L. Black7, I.
Domaizon1, , C. Giguet-Covex4, A. Kirkham1, , M.
Magny3, M. Manca8 , A. Marchetto8, L. Millet3, C.
Paillès7, C. Pignol4 ,J. Poulenard4, J.L. Reyss9, F.
Rimet1, P. Sabatier4, O. Savichtcheva1, F.
Sylvestre7, , V. Verneaux3.
ANR VUL-005 2009-2013
.02
PREDICTING ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CC ON LAKES
Schneider & Hook, 2010
Lakes are globally warming up…
Changes in lakes surface temperature 1985-2009
.03
PREDICTING ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CC ON LAKES
Schneider & Hook, 2010
Lakes are globally warming up…
Changes in lakes surface temperature 1985-2009
… With yet different amplitudes and
physical consequences
30% of variance explained by
morphometry
Kraemer et al, 2015
.04
PREDICTING ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CC ON LAKES
Degree of coherence among lakes Regional climate
Physical responses
TOPOLOGY, GEOMORPHOLOGY HYDROLOGY
.05
PREDICTING ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CC ON LAKES
Degree of coherence among lakes Regional climate
Physical responses
Chemical responses
Biological responses
TOPOLOGY, GEOMORPHOLOGY HYDROLOGY
WATERSHED GEOLOGY, HYDROLOGY
BIODIVERSITY
.06
PREDICTING ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CC ON LAKES
Degree of coherence among lakes Regional climate
Physical responses
Chemical responses
Biological responses
TOPOLOGY, GEOMORPHOLOGY HYDROLOGY
WATERSHED GEOLOGY, HYDROLOGY
BIODIVERSITY
The odds of finding the same response of biological
entities in neighboring lakes is about 50:50 (Dokulil, 2013)
.07
Selected examples of the
observation, detection and
attribution of impacts of climate
change on freshwater
resources (IPCC WGII)
CONFOUNDING EFFECTS OF
LOCAL HUMAN ACTIVITIES
.08
Selected examples of the
observation, detection and
attribution of impacts of climate
chnage on freshwater
resources (IPCC WGII)
CONFOUNDING EFFECTS OF
LOCAL HUMAN ACTIVITIES
• « Climate change negatively impacts freshwater ecosystems by changing
streamflow and water quality (high agreement, medium evidence) »
• « Most observed changes of water quality due to climate change are
known from isolated studies, of a small number of variables ».
Bottom anoxia in a spanish reservoir
DOC in UK lakes Lake nutrient content (Australia)
Fecal pollution in californian wetlands
Nutrient flushing in US swamps and reservoirs
Approach Pros Cons
Experimental Mechanistic, in-depth
understanding of processes
Over-simplification
Short-term
Observation Realism Rare long-term datastes (>30 yrs)
Idiosyncracism of responses
Selected monitored parameters
Modelling Comprehensive
understanding, prediction
Physical, chemical and biological
knowledges are not integrated yet
Paleo Mid-to long-term
Responses to CC
Multi-site perspectives
Confounding effects of multiple forcings
Approach Pros Cons
Experimental Mechanistic, in-depth
understanding of processes
Over-simplification
Short-term
Observation Realism Rare long-term datastes (>30 yrs)
Idiosyncracism of responses
Selected monitored parameters
Modelling Comprehensive
understanding, prediction
Physical, chemical and biological
knowledges are not integrated yet
Paleo Mid-to long-term
Responses to CC
Multi-site perspectives
Confounding effects of multiple forcings
• process-oriented comparative design • Combining annually-dated paleo-records and long-term
monitoring data for (i) the dynamics of climate and local ; (ii) the multiple biotic and geochemical changes occurring in lake habitats ;
• Equation solved through modelling
STUDY SITES : 3 DEEP, LARGE, ANTHROPOGENIZED LAKES
GENEVA BOURGET ANNECY
A similar history of eutrophication/re-oligotrophication with yet different intensities
Similar fish communities with slightly different management practices
River regulations
.012
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
60
80
100
120
140
160
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
8
9
10
11
12
13
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
HISTALP
METEO_FRANCE
Annual air temperatures Annual precipitations
Anom
alie
s (
10
-1°C
;
HIS
TA
LP
)
Anom
alie
s (
%;
HIS
TA
LP
)
Air te
mp
era
ture
(°C; M
ete
o-F
rance
)
Pre
cip
itatio
ns
(mm
; Mete
o-
Fra
nce)
Su
rface
te
mp
era
ture
(°C
)
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
196
5
197
5
198
5
199
5
200
5
STUDY SITES : 3 DEEP, LARGE LAKES UNDER SIMILAR CLIMATE
WITH DIFFERENT THERMAL VULNERABILITIES
1. Reaching a 3D-perspective
132 cores, 19 missions
INTEGRATION NEO- AND PALEO-DATA OVER MULTIPLE DESCRIPTORS: A CHALLENGE FOR SEDIMENTOLOGISTS
1. Reaching a 3D-perspective
132 cores, 19 missions
Dating by « varve »
countings
Radio-isotope
dating
Historical events
Establish a reference core
2. Reaching an ecologically relevant chronometer & sampling
INTEGRATION NEO- AND PALEO-DATA OVER MULTIPLE DESCRIPTORS: A CHALLENGE FOR SEDIMENTOLOGISTS
1. Reaching a 3D-perspective
132 cores, 19 missions
Dating by « varve »
countings
Radio-isotope
dating
Historical events
Establish a reference core
2. Reaching an ecologically relevant chronometer & sampling
3. Providing 4000 accurately dated samples (+/- 1 year)
In 3 year-time….
INTEGRATION NEO- AND PALEO-DATA OVER MULTIPLE DESCRIPTORS: A CHALLENGE FOR SEDIMENTOLOGISTS
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
Terr
igen
ou
s
su
pp
lies (
mg
.cm
-
2.y
r-1)
Dap
hn
ia-i
nfe
rred
TP
(μg
P.L
-1)
Siz
e o
f D
ap
hn
ia-
cla
ws
(μ
m)
A. RIVER
DISCHARGE
B. NUTRIENT
INPUTS
C. FISH
PREDATION
PRESSURE
Year Year Year
RECONSTRUCTED LOCAL HUMAN FORCINGS
- + ++
+ + -
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
Terr
igen
ou
s
su
pp
lies (
mg
.cm
-
2.y
r-1)
Dap
hn
ia-i
nfe
rred
TP
(μg
P.L
-1)
Siz
e o
f D
ap
hn
ia-
cla
ws
(μ
m)
A. RIVER
DISCHARGE
B. NUTRIENT
INPUTS
C. FISH
PREDATION
PRESSURE
Year Year Year
RECONSTRUCTED LOCAL HUMAN FORCINGS
- + ++
+ + -
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
Terr
igen
ou
s
su
pp
lies (
mg
.cm
-
2.y
r-1)
Dap
hn
ia-i
nfe
rred
TP
(μg
P.L
-1)
Siz
e o
f D
ap
hn
ia-
cla
ws
(μ
m)
A. RIVER
DISCHARGE
B. NUTRIENT
INPUTS
C. FISH
PREDATION
PRESSURE
Year Year Year
RECONSTRUCTED LOCAL HUMAN FORCINGS
- + ++
+ + -
.019
Proces
s scale Observation
level Taxonomic level
Sites Proxies/methodologies
Pela
go
s
Geneva Bourget Annecy
FUNCTION Surface CO2
concentrations δ13C cladoceran remains
COMM.
Diatoms Sub-fossil remains
Cyanobacteria qPCR based methods
Cladocerans Subfossil-remains
Rotifers Resting eggs
GENUS
genetic
diversity
Synech.
(cya) Cloning-sequencing
SPECIES
complex
Daphnia long.
Reproductive
strategies
RFLP-microsat. on resting
eggs
Benth
os
FUNCTION
C cycling δ13C chironomid capsules
Hypoxia Lamination presence,
COMM. Chironomids Subfossil head capsules
RECONSTRUCTED LAKE RESPONSES
.030
Generalized Additive Model (GAM)
What are the environmental factors driving which responses and when?
DISENTANGLING FORCINGS CONTRIBUTION TO OBSERVED ECOLOGICAL CHANGES
DIA
TO
MS
Co
mm
un
itie
s
A. formosa, A.islandica
S. Parvus, D. tenuis
S. binderanus
A. islandica
As
sem
bla
ges
P. Rubescens
Synechoccocus
CL
AD
OC
ER
AN
S
Co
mm
un
itie
s
B. longimanus
L. kindtii B. longimanus
L. kindtii
Bosmina sp.
Bosmina sp.
TP
Fish
predation
pressure
Air
warming
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
P. Rubescens Picocyanobacteria
CY
AN
OB
AC
TE
RIA
Ab
un
da
nc
es
A
B
C
+ +
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
FOR
CIN
GS
RES
ON
SES
FORCINGS CONTRIBUTION TO PELAGIC CHANGES
Continuous
changes
TP
Fish
predation
pressure
Air
warming
+ +
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
FOR
CIN
GS
RES
ON
SES
FORCINGS CONTRIBUTION TO BENTHIC CHANGES
LIT
TO
RA
L
Co
mm
un
itie
s
HY
PO
XIC
Vo
lum
es
L. GENEVA L. ANNECY L. BOURGET
DE
EP
Co
mm
un
itie
s
CH
IRO
NO
MID
S
A
B
++ ++
River
discharg
e
Threshold changes (> 10 μgP/L)
.033
LAKES ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY TO CC
PHYSICAL
RESPONSES
TO CC
EXPOSURE
ECOLOGICAL
RESPONSES
TO CC
GEOMORPHOLO
GY
HYDROLOGY • NUTRIENTS
• FISHERIES
MANAGEMENT
PRACTICES
• RIVER FLOW
Control levels for mitigation
strategies
.034
2. Fabien Arnaud, CNRS, EDYTEM.
3. Isabelle Domaizon, INRA, CARRTEL,
4. Florence Sylvestre, IRD, CEREGE
5. Marina Manca, CNR-ISE, Italy
6. Valérie Verneaux, UFC, Chrono-envt
7. Cécile Pignol, EDYTEM
8. Jean-Philippe Jenny, EDYTEM
9. Victor Frossard, Chrono-envt,
10. Benjamin Alric, CARRTEL
11. Vincent Berthon, CARRTEL
12. Laurent Millet, CNRS, Chrono-envt
13. Olga Savichtcheva, INRA, CARRTEL
14. Amy Kirkham, INRA, CARRTEL
15. Emmanuel Naffrechoux, LCME
16. Nathalie Cottin, LCME
17. Jessica Black, CEREGE
18. Christine Pailles, CEREGE
Acknowledgments
Funding Sources French National Research Agency (ANR-VULN 005); CNRS (PEPS program); Région Rhône Alpes, Université de Savoie( France), INRA soutien Post-docs et chercheurs étrangers.
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