Impacts and implications of

global and regional climate

change for agriculture

Christoph Müller & Joshua Elliott

Our Common Future Under Climate Change Paris, July 8th 2015

THE CHALLENGE

Part 1

Crop modeling

Cart

er

et al. 2

013

Crop modeling

Schaube

rger

et al. S

ubm

itte

d; C

art

er

et al. 2

013

Rötter et al. 2011, Rosenzweig et al. 2013

Improving modeling skills

LESSONS LEARNED

Part 2

ISI-MIP/AgMIP fasttrack

• 7 GGCMs – EPIC, GEPIC, IMAGE-AEZ, LPJ-GUESS, LPJmL, pDSSAT,

PEGASUS

• ~500 scenarios – 5GCM * 4 RCP * 2 irrig * 2 CO2 *7GGCM

• 3-16 crops

• Rainfed & fully irrigated

• With and without CO2 fertilization

• 67420 locations (0.5°* 0.5° grid)

Rosenzweig et al. 2014

Global impact patterns

• Lower latitudes more vulnerable to CC

• CO2 effects key to uncertainty and magnitude

• Assumptions on management system matter

Rosenzweig et al. 2014

Climate mitigation

Müller et al. under review

Feedbacks and limits to adaptation

• 11 global hydrological models (GHMs), 6 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) , 5 GCMs under RCP8.5.

• With [CO2], direct losses of 400-1400 Pcal (8-24% of present)

• W/o [CO2] = 1400-2600 Pcal

• Freshwater limits: 20-60 Mha of irrigated cropland to – a further loss of 600-2900 Pcal

• Globally, possible net increase in irrigation with significant investment

Elliott et al. 2014

Agricultural Econmics in AgMIP/ISI-MIP

Nelson et al. 2014

GGCMI: THE GLOBAL GRIDDED

CROP MODEL INTERCOMPARISON

Part 3

Phase1: historical evaluation

• Establish standard benchmarking system – Data processing – Quality check

• 24 (15) modeling groups

• 9 weather products

• Central processing

Elliott et al. 2015

Model evaluation • Evaluate spatial and temporal patterns

China

India

USA

Russia

France

Canada

Australia

Pakistan

Germany

Turkey

Müller et al. in prep.

Moving targets

Porwollik et al. in prep.

Differences in national wheat yields in Italy

Outlook: scrutinize & improve

Folberth et al. in prep.; Ruane et al. in prep.;

Ramaroheta et al. in prep.; …

Figure

from

Ruane

et al.

2014

Phase 2:

• CTWN

• Protocols tonight

Outlook: Variance & Extremes

Reproduced from Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system

Prepared for the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience

Outlook: Variance & Extremes

• Variability and skewness of distribution increasing

• Extreme percentiles of distribution getting worse – 1-in-100 yr event historically could be 1-in-30 in several decades

Model-based

distributions of

global calorie-

weighted yield

of maize, soy,

wheat, and

rice for the

historical

(1951-2010)

and near-

future (2011-

2040) period

Reproduced from Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system

Prepared for the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience

THE CHALLENGE

REVISITED

Part 4

Steffen et al. 2004

Climate

change

Steffen et al. 2004

Global

Change

Myers et al. 2014, Müller et al. 2014

Not just food…

• Mitigate climate change and looming impacts on agricultural productivity

• Food security for a growing and richer population

• Bio-economy: increasing demand for fuels and materials

• Conservation/ environmental protection

Bodirsky et al. under review; Popp et al. 2014

THE SOLUTION…

Part of

Menzel & D‘Aluisio, 2007

Thanks for your attention

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Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., and Wisser, D.: Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3239-3244, 10.1073/pnas.1222474110, 2014.

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• Menzel P, D’Aluisio F. 2007, Hungry Planet, what the world eats. 288pp, 978-0984074426. • Müller, C., Elliott, J., and Levermann, A.: Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 540-541, 10.1038/nclimate2290, 2014. • Myers, S. S., Zanobetti, A., Kloog, I., Huybers, P., Leakey, A. D. B., Bloom, A. J., Carlisle, E., Dietterich, L. H., Fitzgerald, G., Hasegawa, T., Holbrook, N. M., Nelson, R. L., Ottman, M. J., Raboy, V., Sakai, H.,

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der Mensbrugghe, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., and Willenbockel, D.: Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3274-3279, 10.1073/pnas.1222465110, 2014.

• Popp, A., Humpenoder, F., Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Bonsch, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Stevanovic, M., and Dietrich, J. P.: Land-use protection for climate change mitigation, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 1095-1098, 10.1038/nclimate2444

• Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburne, P., Antle, J. M., Nelson, G. C., Porter, C., Janssen, S., Asseng, S., Basso, B., Ewert, F., Wallach, D., Baigorria, G., and Winter, J. M.: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 166-182, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.011, 2013.

• Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T. A. M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H., and Jones, J. W.: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 3268-3273, 10.1073/pnas.1222463110, 2014.

• Rötter, R. P., Carter, T. R., Olesen, J. E., and Porter, J. R.: Crop-climate models need an overhaul, Nature Clim. Change, 1, 175-177, 10.1038/nclimate1152, 2011. • Schauberger B, Rolinskiy S, Müller C: What causes yield variability? A network approach to identify physiological causes, the influence of weather extremes, and their virtues for crop modeling, Global

Change Biology, submitted • Steffen, W. L., Sanderson, A., Tyson, P., Jäger, J., Matson, P., Moore III, B., Oldfield, F., Richardson, K., Schellnhuber, H. J., Turner II, B. L., and Wasson, R. J.: Global change and the earth system: a planet

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