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Understanding the past to develop a sustainable future: the value of the East African palaeoecological record
Rob Marchant, Claudia Capitani, Philip Platts, Dereje Denu, Mathew Mathayo Mpanda, Dickens Odeny, Peter Omeny, Tadesse Woldemariam Gole, Joyce Ininda, Faith Karanja, Ensermu Kelessa, Chris Oludhe, Geoffrey Mwchala, Geroge Ogutu, Philip Omondi, Amos
Majule, Marion Pfeifer, Fergus Sinclair and Daryl Stump
A B C D E F
Past Historical Modern Present Future
Marchant and Lane. 2015 Jn Arch Sci
A B C
E F
H I
D
G
Land-use, climate change and Livelihoods in Amboseli
Rucina et al. The Holocene 2009
Open savanna woodland driven by arid climate / high elephant population
More closed savanna woodland driven by mesic climate / declining elephant population
More closed savanna woodland and extensive wetland driven by mesic climate / declining elephant population
More closed savanna woodland driven by fire, human population / declining elephant population
CO2
Significant implications for ecosystem management
Animals make a difference
Fire Grazing
WUE
Konso agriculture described as one of a
select few “lessons from the past” by a
UN FAO report entitled The conservation
and rehabilitation of African lands
Archaeology of Agricultural Resilience in Eastern Africa
“Ultimately, the Engaruka works proved
unsustainable and their failure forced its
inhabitants to migrate”
(Conte 2004: 25)
Engaruka; the past as
negative precedent
Engaruka; the past as
positive precedent
“Once established, the land-use system at
Engaruka was sufficiently resilient to survive
and even intensify during a much drier
climate from c. 1500 to 1670 CE (Common
Era)”
(Westerberg et al. 2010: 304)
Gillson and Marchant 2014 TREE
Platts et al., 2014 African Journal of Ecology
Beneath the canopy
Pfeifer et al. 2014, Rem. Sens.
Natural Man-
made
How do climate and land use affect canopy structure?
Pfeifer, et al. 2014, Rem. Sens.
Relationship with moisture index can be used to infer impacts of canopy structure and interaction with ambient climate and climate change scenarios
Social Scenario
development
• 189 participants from 7 zones
• 89% Men
• 51% delegates of Local Governments (Regions and Districts)
• 49% representing NGOs, CSOs, private business
MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (BAU)
Land use change model: preliminary results on land use BAU Green Economy
MOSHI
MBEYA
LINDI
TANGA
BABATI
BUKOBA
MWANZA
MUSOMA
ARUSHA
TABORA
SONGEA
IRINGA
KIBAHA
MTWARA
SINGIDA
MOROGORO
SHINYANGA
SUMBAWANGA
KIGOMA-UJIJI
DAR ES SALAAM
MAIN CHANGES IN THE BAU SCENARIO
Conversion to cultivated
Conversion to grassland
Degradation
MPANDA
MOSHI
MBEYA
LINDI
TANGA
BABATI
BUKOBA
MWANZA
MUSOMA
ARUSHA
TABORA
SONGEA
IRINGA
KIBAHA
MTWARA
SINGIDA
MOROGORO
SHINYANGA
SUMBAWANGA
KIGOMA-UJIJI
DAR ES SALAAM
MAIN CHANGES IN THE GE SCENARIO
Conversion to cultivated
Conversion to grassland
Degradation
MPANDA
What to do with all this output?
Future developments
Map spatio-temporal rate and direction of change for key species and crops.
Integrate information to characterise ecosystem dynamics at fine grain size – to capture climate and ecosystem trends under different states.
Apply the developing scenario approach to integrate environmental, ecological and social interactions such hydrology, biodiversity, carbon, people and livelihoods.
Change in non-climatic factors – particularly landuse, demographics, crop choice, social change
Training and dissemination - facilitating
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