Academic Registrars Conference 2017

Clare MarchantChief Executive

• Introduction• Looking back at

the 2017 entry cycle

• Looking forward to 2018 and beyond

• How I want us to work together

Purpose of session

Hi, I’m Clare… ‘To improve is to change,

to perfect is to change often.’

Looking back

2017 was a busy year for the sector and for UCAS…

• New collection and search tools• New Tariff• Qualification reform readiness• Zero results embargo breach project• Progression Pathways 2017• Enhancements to analytical services • More timely and personalised I&A• TEF engagement• New CRM approach• Technological enhancements

Confirmation and clearing 2017

On the day…

• Heightened media interest –UCAS had double the audience reach of the Bake Off premiere on Channel 4 (12.8m)

• New qualifications were the story of the day

• Fees and degree apprenticeships were prominent in the media

How we performed

Dif

fere

nce

bet

wee

n c

ycle

’s

acce

pta

nce

s an

d 2

01

6 c

ycle

Ap

plic

ants

Day 28

Outcome better than expected for 2017 cycle

Acceptances down 1% at day 28. This is a recovery from the 5% fall in applicants at January deadline.

Dif

fere

nce

bet

wee

n c

ycle

an

d

20

16

cyc

le

Net

incr

ease

in a

ccep

tan

ces

sin

ce

pre

vio

us

wee

kday

Clearing was faster this yearFewer applicants available to be placed in Clearing (-20k on ARD).

More Clearing acceptances on the first day.

By day 28, main scheme Clearingacceptances were only 1% down.

Direct to Clearing increased by 9%.

Direct to clearing acceptances up 9%

+9% 13,640 placed via DTC, an increase of 1,150 from last year.

Who are these applicants?

Why aren’t they applying earlier?

UK accepts have highest proportion of DTC

Over 2.5% of acceptances from the UK are via Direct to Clearing (12,500), whereas this is only about 1.5% for non-UK accepts (1,000 overall).

Direct to Clearing mostly older UK applicants

70% of DTC applicants are aged 20 and over (15,000).

Falls in older applicants at June deadline – applying direct to clearing instead?

Majority of DTC accepts stay close to home

Over 60% of DTC acceptances are to providers less than 45 minutes away from home.

Where in the country are these acceptances?

Business & Admin most popular for DTC

Business & Admin studies and Subjects allied to Medicine had most applications (2,800); for Group B nearly half were to Nursing.

Increasingly competitive environment

A wide range of outcomes across providers. 40 providers have seen decreases in acceptances each cycle for the last four cycles – 15 of those decreased by at least 5% each cycle.

Good time to be an applicant.

Dif

fere

nce

in a

ccep

tan

ces

bet

wee

n

cycl

e an

d 2

01

6 c

ycle

• Unconditional offers have increased again this year – 5% of offers to 18 year olds

• Unconditional offers may affect attainment

• 32% of applicants with an UF offer miss their grades by more than 3 points,

compared to 20% for those with CF. • Remain unpopular with teachers and

advisers• Students ‘taking their foot off the pedal’• Are they prepared for university?• Should they let universities and colleges

know if a learner is failing?• UCAS resources to inform decisions

Unconditional offer making and learners

4% increase in acceptances seen for non-EU

Dif

fere

nce

in a

ccep

tan

ces

20

16

–2

01

7

Is outside the EU key potential for growth in the current climate?

Number of acceptances 2016

Improvements in POLAR3 but not in MEM

18

yea

r o

ld e

ntr

y ra

te

18

yea

r o

ld e

ntr

y ra

te

MEM

However, when looking at MEM, there has been no progress this year. The MEM Q1:Q5 ratio is larger than POLAR3 at 3.9.

POLAR3

The POLAR3 Q1:Q5 ratio has decreasedto 2.3 this year due to the largest increases in acceptances seen for the most disadvantaged (Q1).

18

yea

r o

ld e

ntr

y ra

te

Gender gap shows no improvement

Young women are now

36% more likely to enter HE than men.

Nursing outcome as expected

Nursing applicants down 20% at Jan15 deadline (45,090, -10,990), all placed down 4% (-1,000).

Increase in applicants from outside EU.

Applicants Acceptances

(400, +60)

(27,240, -1,000)

Why do students make decisions?

Applicants complete Track survey after responding to offers, rating factors affecting their decision making.

Allows providers to see what they do well and what they can improve.

UCAS the information provider

UCAS the information provider…

• Ucas.com is a central point for neutral I+A.• We cover all post-16 and post-18 options,

including post-16 qualifications, UG, PG, apprenticeships, employment and how to set up your own business.

• …but many other providers are out there.• We are now working with Generation Z –

changing needs of applicants?• Also operating in a market. • Role of data? • HE partners?• Core focus of our Corporate Strategy

refresh.

Offer Rate Calculator

Based on feedback from providers, advisers, and learners, we have made the following improvements to our offer rate calculator since launch:

• An extended list of A level subject groupings • The names of some degree clusters have been

reviewed and updated• Better signposting to information and advice for

course providers, advisers, and learners from the calculator itself, to caveat its usage and explain the rationale.

During the month leading up to the 15 October deadline, there were over 46,000 searches on the offer rate calculator.

The second version of the offer rate calculator is currently in development. A release date has not yet been set, as we are consulting further with representatives for learners, advisers, and HEPs.

Summary of the proposed changes:

• Include 2017 data• Account for changes in offer-making strategies of HEPs• Return predicted offer rates for a larger number of HEPs and courses• Facilitate side-by-side comparisons• Support for a wider range of qualifications, where statistically meaningful.

Plans for an updated offer rate calculator

Looking forward

The landscape continues to change…

Fees debate

(and review?)

OfSconsultation Quals

changes

Sector Agencies Review

Increase in medicine

places

TE(SO)F

Autumn Budget

Quality Code

Technical educationTech

disruption I+A

Qualifications in 2018

• Ongoing introduction of reformed A levels across the UK, including additional subjects in England and CCEA regulated A levels in Northern Ireland

• Growing number of reformed GCSEs (9 – 1) entering HE

• First substantive award of new-style vocational qualifications

UK 18 year old population still falling

UK

18

year old

po

pu

lation

UK 18 year old population doesn’t stop falling until 2020.

Population won’t recover to levels seen in 2010 ‘til 2025

Forecasted decrease in UK 18 year old applicants of 1%to 2020.

If application rates continue to rise, new highs forecasted for 2021 and beyond.

UK 18 applicants forecasted to fall

Mature demand likely to fall

Debt averse?

Economy?

UK 20 and overs forecasted to keep declining. 16% less in 2022than 2017.

Non-EU forecasted to continue increasing

Insight and UCAS Media products

Conversion analysis

Track survey

STROBE

Market scan

EXACT

Digital display

Targeted communications

Rise of apprenticeships?

• Higher apprenticeship starts increased 35% in 2016/17.

• UUK and HEFCE anticipate 5,000 degree apprenticeship starts in 2017/18 – an increase in 658% from previous year.

• Second most asked question at UCAS exhibitions.

• Role of UCAS?

Oct15 deadline applicants up 7%

Medicine applicants up 8%

• Due to be released w/c 13 November.• Report provides an update on progress made against the seven

recommendations made in the 2016 report, and the range of work undertaken across the sector.

• Indicates that name-blind applications do not impact a learner’s chances of receiving an offer.

• Continues to encourage HEPs to undertake and introduce processes to minimise the risk of unconscious bias and enhance quality assurance.

• Encourages a wider view of differential outcomes, from pre-HE to degree attainment.

Unconscious bias report 2017

UCAS support for contextualised admissions • Questions in Apply • Personal statement and reference• UCAS contextual data service - provides data about an applicant’s school or

college and local area:

• The school performance data is linked to an applicant via their Apply

centre.

• The local area data draws on an applicant’s postcode in order to display

the corresponding POLAR3 quintile or the Scottish Index of Multiple

Deprivation (SIMD).

• Work with the Fair Education Alliance to raise awareness with teachers and advisers. • Information and advice on ucas.com. • Exploring new, more modern ways of supporting contextualised admissions.

The present – UCAS and you

• Current strategy ambitious, but requires focus and prioritisation.• Refreshed strategy 2018 onwards being developed.• Clarity over core purpose – fair, trusted undergraduate admissions service.• Key will be revised digital roadmap:

• Underpinned by success in stabilising and making more secure services. • Delivering technology, data, and marketing services, driven by customer

value.• Anticipating technology disruption.• Working with partners and creating alliances.

• Will influence future financial strategy.

Strategy refresh

• Customer voice already clear and unambiguous e.g. advisory groups, Clearing working group.

• Help us prioritise.• Keep an eye on the medium term:

• Generation Z and beyond• Technology disruption• Growth of international markets

• Expect agility – both the up’s and downs.• Be constructive.

How can you influence?

How we engage with you

• Webinars: 60 – 80 providers attend every month

• Conferences: nearly 600 HEP delegates• Weekly emails• Feedback button on ucas.com• Relationship managers have visited 148

providers in the last year• Working groups, including our new

Business Rules and Admissions Principles Working Group

Thank you