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F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C A R E M O R E I M P O RTANT F O R I O WA D E M O CRAT S
Which of these is most important to you when choosing who to support for a presidential nomination?
Source: Quinnipiac, December 16-20, 2015 (National), January 25-31, 2016 (Iowa)
27% 30%
11% 8%4%
10%
0% 0% 2% 4% 1%
34%
10%3% 1%
10%14%
8% 6%2% 4% 3%
Economy and jobs
Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit
Health care Foreign policy
Climate change
Race relations
Abortion Gun policy Taxes
27%
15%11% 9%
5% 8%0% 0%
5% 8%2%
36%
4% 2% 3%
22%
6%11%
3% 2% 3% 2%
Economy and jobs
Terrorism Immigration Federal deficit
Health care Foreign policy
Climate change
Race relations
Abortion Gun policy Taxes
RepublicansDemocrats
Natio
nal
Iow
a
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 19% 20%
Cares about needs/problems 28% 13%
Strong leadership 16% 29%
Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%
Right experience 16% 8%
Best chance of winning 6% 7%
Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
NATIONALLY IOWA
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 16% 26%
Cares about needs/problems 26% 9%
Strong leadership 13% 26%
Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24%
Right experience 18% 6%
Best chance of winning 9% 7%
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RSHI P; L I K E LY D E M O CRATI C C A U C US G O E R S T H I N K I T ’ S A B O UT I S S U ES
Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for?
Source: The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10, 2016 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co.
52%
40%
30%
57%
Leadership Issues
Republicans DemocratsNote: “Something else,” and “Not sure” results not shown
PAGE 6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F L ECT T H I S S E N TI MENT
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13, 2016
Thinking about the 2016 presidential elections, which of the following statements comes closers to your point of view?
36%
61%
3%Depends / Not sure
Statement A: This is a time
when it is important to look
for a more experienced and
tested person even if he or she
brings fewer changes to the
current policies.
Statement B: This is a time when it is important to
look for a person who will bring
greater changes to the current
policies even if he or she is less
experienced and tested.
Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your political party, or not?
53%
44%
29%
68%
Yes
No
Republicans
Democrats
NATIONALLY IOWA
I O W A C A U C U S
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrats are eligible to participate although the party does offer same-day registration.
1,683 Democratic caucuses will be held at more than 1,000 locations. They start at 8 p.m. EST and can last an hour or more. There are 44 delegates to the national convention that can be won through this process. Note: Eight more unpledged party leaders and elected officials get to go straight to the national convention from Iowa ("superdelegates”).
Here's what happens on caucus night:
1. Supporters make the case for their candidates.
2. Caucus goers separate into groups in corners or parts of the room for their candidates of choice.
3. When the groups are formed, the elected chair adds up how many supporters are in each cluster. Each candidate has to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent.
4. If a candidate is determined not to be viable, that candidate's supporters have to choose another candidate.
5. During the re-caucusing process, supporters from the viable candidates try to sway the nonviable candidate's voters to their side.
6. Once the re-caucusing is settled and all remaining candidates are deemed viable, the numbers are tallied.
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Republicans are eligible to participate although the party does offer same-day registration.
GOP caucuses will be held at about 700 locations. They also start at 8 p.m. EST and last about an hour. Thirty delegates are at stake of the 1,236 needed to be the GOP nominee.
Here's what happens on caucus night:
1. Presidential candidate representatives speak and make their case.
2. Caucus goers pick a candidate through paper ballot. In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could have been done through a show of hands. Unlike Democrats, the Republicans have no 15 percent threshold.
3. Votes are tallied and reported to party headquarters.
R E P U B L I C A N S
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E J U M P B Y R U B I O
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
10%8% 8% 7%
6% 6% 5% 4% 4%7%
7% 7%8% 9%
14%
26%
28%24%
7% 6% 6%
6%9%
11% 12%
12%
17%
8%
15%
20%23% 23% 23%
26% 28%31%
9%11%
13%18%
22% 22%
13%
8% 8%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 30.7%Ted Cruz 23.8%
Marco Rubio 17.4%Ben Carson 7.7%
Jeb Bush 3.9%Rand Paul 3.9%
Mike Huckabee 3.1%John Kasich 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.3%Carly Fiorina 2.1%
Rick Santorum 1.2%Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trendas of February 1, 2016
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsementsPredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
1%
4%
29%
66%
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st
46%
38%
14%
1%
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R U MP & C R U Z O V E R R U B I O
76%
58%
40%
18%
31%
43%
5%
11%
15%
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently
Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D IDAT E; M O R E T H A N A T H I R D S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T WA N T T R UM P
72%81%
74%63%
28%18%
26%37%
Total Trump supporter
Cruz supporter
Rubio supporter
Made up Might change
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
7%
9%
10%
12%
13%
15%
21%
35%
Carson
Rubio
Paul
Christie
Kasich
Cruz
Bush
Trump
Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS N O T C O N TA CTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; A Q U A R TER H AV E H E A RD F R O M C R U Z C A M PA IGN
Yes45%No
55%
Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate?
9%
12%
5%
25%
8%
4%
7%
4%
9%
17%
5%
13%
IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends on first-time voters registering and showing up to caucus. A recent Monmouth University poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, when the pollster narrows the sample size to registered Republicans who have a history of voting, the odds shift in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent.
Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of 170,000 voters coming out, which surpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in 2012. Increasing the turnout estimate to 200,000 gives Trump an 11-point lead, while decreasing it to 130,000 ties the two opponents at 26 percent.
2. Fickle Voters
According to a Quinnipiac poll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28 percent of those who support a candidate say they could change their mind by election day.
3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio
In 2012, the Republican Iowa caucuses saw a lot of last-minute shifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney. No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012 caucuses. But that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a surprise, especially given the projected differences in outcome based on turnout. One possibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains momentum or benefits from higher turnout among those who prefer an “establishment” candidate over Trump or Cruz.
D E M O C R A T S
PAGE 18
C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 47.7%Bernie Sanders 44.6%Martin O’Malley 3.7%
HuffPost Pollster Trendas of February 1st, 2016
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
18% 21%27% 29% 32% 34% 37%
42% 45%
56% 54% 50% 48% 48% 51% 51% 48% 48%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong registered/leaned Democrats
Sanders Clinton
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st
34%
66%
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa CaucusesAs of February 1st
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsementsPredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
PAGE 20
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ; I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S
85% 84% 87%
14% 15% 12%
Total Clinton supporter
Sanders supporter
Made up Might change
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016
79%
76%
15%
15%
4%
7%
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently
Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support [candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON
Yes62%
No37%
Did anyone contact you personally to ask you to caucus for a particular candidate?
49%
15%
38%
Clinton O'Malley Sanders
IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls have consistently found his support sky-high among younger voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters.
People under the age of 29 have made up 9-17 percent of Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With the exception of 2008, which saw a record number of young voters, on average only 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to vote on election day. If Sanders motivates this group to turn out, he could upset Clinton.
2. Fickle Voters
A recent Quinnipiac poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could change their mind by the time they cast their vote. The format of the caucus provides opportunities for voters to change their minds, so those waffling on their choice could be convinced to change candidates.
3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley
According to the HuffPost pollster average, O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the 15 percent threshold for a candidate to be considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to choose another candidate. There’s no real guidance in the polls on what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, since there are so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percent will support on caucus day, and with a race this tight, which way they swing could affect the outcome.
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