SXSW Music 2015: Surviving the Shift: Rethinking Music and Data

Time

Place

Data

SURVIVING THE SHIFT:

1

Rethinking MUSIC and DATA

Gigi Johnson, EdD

UCLA Center for Music Innovation

@MusicInnovUCLA

#SurviveMD cc Flickr/Effervescing Elephant

MA“MA” – the space in between the beats

Flickr/IQRemix cc 2.0

WE ARE CREATING FOR A(INTER)CONNECTED WORLD

Source: Facebook

”

“Basically, I equate ‘free’ with the decline of the music business," Morris declared. "Why should anyone pay for anything if they can get it for free? In certain instances, it ’s worth a discussion. But in general, free is death.

Doug Morris, Sony MusicHITS Daily Double, March 11, 2015

THE SHIFT: TRANSACTIONAL TO RELATIONAL

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

2012 2013 2014

US Recorded Music Units, 2012-2014 – Nielsen SoundScan

Streams/1500

CDs

Digital Albums

Digital Tracks/10

HALF = VIDEO STREAMING

49,000,000,000 78,600,000,000

57,100,000,000

85,300,000,000

2013 2014

US Music Streams, 2013-2014

<Audio>

<Video>

Source: Nielsen

WE HAVE ARRIVED…AT???

Flickr/jgoge123 cc 2.0

SURVIVE?

THRIVE

WHY THE SHIFT? WHY NOW?

MobileRental models

Cloud economy

Shared economy

Capacities for big data

PAST PIVOT TO A DIGITAL SINGLES WORLD: 1/10 RATIO

•1

0

Source: RIAA figures; Digital Music News

CDs

US MM Units Shipped, 1973-2010

Digital

Singles

LPs

Cassettes

PER PERSON TRANSACTIONAL PEAKED 1999

•1

1

REVENUE: A 3-PART PIE

Source: RIAA

http://riaa.com/media/D1F4E3E8-D3E0-FCEE-BB55-FD8B35BC8785.pdf

US REVENUE: FLAT-ISH, DESPITE SHIFT

Source: RIAA

http://riaa.com/media/D1F4E3E8-D3E0-FCEE-BB55-FD8B35BC8785.pdf

DIGITAL PIE UP BUT SHIFTING

2011: FUTURE OF MUSIC STUDY ON 5,300 ARTISTS

Source: http://money.futureofmusic.org/

N: over 5,300 US-based musicians and composers

VARYING PIES

http://money.futureofmusic.org/jazz-musicians/

2012: MERCH 1-6% REVENUE

2012: 1-10% “BRAND” INCOME

INDIE ROCK FOM 2012

TOURING ARTIST FOM 2012

PERFORMING ARTIST FOM 2012

LIVE = GROWTH

Source: Pollstar

DATA IS NOW DRIVES TIME, PLACE, AND CONNECTION

Flickr/notbrucelee

DIGITAL DRIVERS RECONNECT TIME AND PLACE WITH DATA

Technologies of Connection

Metadata to the artist, album, genre, and more

Recording relationship with AND BETWEEN users

Recording relationship with distribution

Influencing relationships with filters and with other media objects

THE CORE OF THE BIG SHIFT

• CDs

• Merchandise

• Tickets

Buy Stuff

• Ad-based

• Community-based

• Subscription-based

Share Stuff

NOT JUST MUSIC

OLD FLOWS OF FAN-DOM

Potential

Fans

Existing Music

Experience

Discovery & Awareness

Engagement

RadioMTV

FriendsConcert & CD

Marketing

Purchase

NEW FLOWS OF FAN-DOM

Potential

Fans

“KNOWN”:Existing Music

Experience

Discovery & Awareness

Engagement

RadioSocial Media

FriendsConcert & CD

Marketing

Purchase

Internet RadioYouTube/VEVO

FacebookFriends

SoundcloudSpotify

Listen to a Stream

Share

Cover

BREADTH: FOR KEEPING UP-TO-DATE

MOST, 12-24, KEEPING UP-TO-DATE SOURCES

NEW GATEKEEPERS: DATA LIVES IN OWNED FUNNELS

iTunes

Sharing

Comments

Viewing

Spotify

Sharing

Comments

Viewing

Pandora

Sharing

Comments

Viewing

Facebook

Sharing

Comments

Viewing

Amazon

Sharing

Comments

Viewing

YouTube

Sharing

Comments

Viewing

SECONDARY VALUE: BEYOND TRANSACTIONS

Engagement Data

Event Design

Brand Relationships

Community Building

DATA DRIVING BACKWARDS

Other Engagement

Performance

Recorded Music

• Synch

• Merch

• Brand Integration

• Appearances

• Location-based and shared experiences

• 26-35%

• Shifting Nature

• 1-6-12%

DATA

WHALES, MINNOWS, DOLPHINS

Source: Billboardbiz.com; Hanny Nada, GGV Capital

DATA FOR THE REST OF US

Big TrendsBig

Data

• My Fans

• My Experiences

• My Relationships

Small Data

Time

Place

Data

THRIVING 2020:

CONNECTING THE DOTS:TIME + PLACE + DATA

DIGITAL “MA”

”

“… as I’ve said many times the future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.

William Gibson, 1999

LIVE EXPERIENCE = ENHANCING CRM, P&L, ETC.

Casino – P&L per person since 1990s

Theme Parks – RFID and wristbands

Retail – iBeacons (low power Bluetooth)

3 RESULTING SHIFTS

Engagement and

Predictive metrics, not

just reportingSuperFans, 80/20,

and what we can

do about it

New Super-

influencers and

folks in between

SMARTPHONE: EVERYWHERE DATA

Flickr/m01229 cc2.0

NEW “FOMO” DIRECTIONS: LIVE• Rarer Live

• Constant Social vs. Constant Together

• Gen Y and Z:

• Increase social media

• Drop in cars

• Increase in festivals -- FOMO

NEW MAGIC TO REGIONAL

DATA: SURPRISE, DELIGHT, AND

BUILD STORIES OUT OF LIVE

ENGAGEMENT

• Data engaged live experiences — iBeacons, LISNR, geofencing, RFID

• Knowing WHERE you listening and understanding the Where Adjacency to purchase for Merch or Brands (later)

Aloompa

DATA ANALYTICS VALUE EVIDENCED 2013-14

“GLOBAL MUSIC DATA ALLIANCE”

ENGAGEMENT AND PREDICTIVE METRICS, NOT JUST REPORTING

NBS

https://www.nextbigsound.com/industryreport/2014

NBS: INSTAGRAM VS TWITTER

https://www.nextbigsound.com/industryreport/2014

NBS: SOUNDCLOUD

PANDORA AMP

Artist Audio Messaging

(in beta)

YOUTUBE CARDS -- “ARTIST PROGRAMS” STAY IN-HOUSE

http://youtubecreator.blogspot.com/2015/03/make-your-videos-even-more-interactive.html

SUPERFAN: 80/20, SMALL DATA, CLOSER TO ME

PATREON: AMANDA PALMER

PATREON: AMANDA PALMER WHALES

BANDCAMP SUBSCRIPTIONS

BANDSINTOWN

TUNEZY – SFX ACQUISITION

DRIP.FM

STAGE.IT

BOILER ROOM: LIVE CONCERTS

COLLABORATIVE SOCIAL ACTION AND INFLUENCE

PLAYLISTERS – “NEW” UNPAID INFLUENCERS

DIGITAL MUSIC ECOSYSTEM

64

CHALLENGES

• Who owns my data and my customer?

• Throttling of connections — FB progressive percentage drop; challenge with models that depend on it

• Measuring from the inside vs outside — “Fans” vs engagement metrics for others; “conversion funnel” as “conversation funnel”

• How do I do this as a working musician? Who are the layers of ecosystems and tools to “onboard” all of this — a real opportunity to make sense of it all…

THE 3 A’S + F – DOMINANT ECONOMIC CONTROLS

Apple

Android/Google

Amazon

Facebook

ECHONEST EVERY NOISE AT ONCE

EchoNest

Every Noise at Oncehttp://www.furia.com/misc/genremaps/engenremap.html

DIY: WEBHOOK-ING PIECES TOGETHER

MEERKAT

NEXT STEPS?

• Know you own mapping of your data and ecosystem

• Map who else is diong this well

• Think about the Pros & Cons: Work on the bleeding edge vs. Learn from those who are “doing”

DATA + EMOTION + TIME + PLACE = STORY

DIGITAL MA + DATA = COMMUNITY AND VALUE

Gigi Johnson, EdD

UCLA Center for Music Innovation

Slides: http://ucla.musicinnovation.org

@MusicInnovUCLA

#SurviveMD