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Uncertainties that must be managed in DRR and CCA P. H. Longstaff Syracuse University RU
SI P.H. Longstaff
2014
Which uncertainties? • Certainty is rare • It is certain that there will be surprises • “Disaster” (without a guiding star) • UncertainHes more manageable with: • Trust • Efficiency/resilience tradeoffs • Regime shiOs • New rules for the Blame Game
• What does resilience mean? To us ? To them?
RUSI P.H. Longstaff
2014
We do need to know Interests/Goals (theirs and ours) • Resistance (The Citadel) • Stop the surprise(s) • Tendency to fail catastrophically • Trust high unHl failure • Resilience (Surviving to operate another
day) • StaHc: Bouncing back – return to “normal” • AdapHve: Bouncing forward • Trust built and reinforced oOen
RUSI P.H. Longstaff
2014
Disaster Cooperation requires trust • Necessary (but not necessarily sufficient) Robert Aexelrod • Long-‐term relaHonship • Frequent contact with opportunity to cheat/cooperate • Recognize other’s agents and interests • InsHtuHonal memory to keep track of cheaHng (e.g., corrupHon) and cooperaHng
• Maybe industry or government or NGO • Between • Donor and Donor • Donor and Recipient RU
SI P.H. Longstaff
2014
Regime Shifts • Regime A (SOP) • Regime B (disaster plans) • Regime C (everybody for themselves or a guiding star)
RUSI P.H. Longstaff
2014
Some current research efforts for resilience • NSF: Microscope v. Kaleidoscope • Defining, Measuring and PredicHng • Trusted sources of informaHon • CiHzens as assets • CiHzen Sensors then and now • CiHzens as responders/organizers: Panic or partner RU
SI P.H. Longstaff
2014
On the cutting edge: Adaptive regulation/management • For crisis • Empowering Improvisa;on: human and technical
• For creeping disasters: Set up sensors that indicate when • adapHve mechanisms are failing (e.g. Challenges
cascade) • Hpping points are near • buffers/reserves are near exhausHon RU
SI P.H. Longstaff
2014
Heroes of Resilience • Combine an awareness of common paderns with an acute adenHon to the specific circumstances of a unique situaHon.
• David Brooks NYT 28 May 2013
• Understand that they don’t know it all – humility. • Know how to set goals that can accommodate all definiHons of resilience: tolerance. • Know that they may fail and accept it as a temporary set-‐back.
Transla
Hng Re
silience
Longstaff
, Koslowski, & Geo
ghegan
2013
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