Making development sustainable: the future of disaster risk management

25 years of international commitment to disaster risk reduction

From managing disasters ………

 Disaster  management  cycle  

 1975    2011  

Less progress in managing risks

Assessing  disaster  risk  impacts  of  major  development  projects  

 

Managing  risk  in  urban  environments    

Strong  policy,  technical  and  insCtuConal  capaciCes  and  mechanisms  

Disaster  preparedness  and  conCngency  plans,  training  drills  

Revealing the real magnitude of risk

Disasters:    42,000,000  (average  1990-­‐2012)  Tuberculosis:  43,000,000  (2012)  Malaria:  55,000,000  (2012)  Traffic  accidents:  78,000,000  (2012)    

Life  year  lost:    

A risky world  

Expected  future  disaster  losses  annualized  over  the  long  term  

Fiscal resilience challenged

PotenCal  financing  gaps  for  a  1  in  100  year  loss  

5%  probability    in  5  years  of  exceeding  a  loss    Flood Hazard - forthcoming

~  

An opportunity cost for development

The  risk  to  social  progress,  stability  and  economic  development      

SIDS: an existential threat

Average  annual  loss  as  a  proporCon  of  social  expenditure,  capital  investment  and  capital  stock:  top  15  countries  

Climate change magnifies risk

The  increase  in  annual  average  loss  due  to  wind  damage  in  the  Caribbean  by  2050  as  a  result  of  climate  change  

Total  increase  of  AAL  with  climate  change  to  2050  =  US$  1.4  billion  

Extensive risk: eroding resilience

Most  disaster  impacts  in  infrastructure  are  associated  with  extensive  risk  

Underlying risk drivers: Mispricing risk

EsCmated  impact  of  sea  level  rise  in  Miami  Beach  by  2060  

Underlying risk drivers: Urbanizing risk

Expected  regional  increase  in  the  proporCon  of  urban  populaCon  by  2050  

Underlying risk drivers: Growing inequalities

Annual  local  government  spending  per  person  for  selected  countries  

Underlying risk drivers: Overconsumption overwhelming bio-capacity

About  1.5  planets  are  now  required  to  sustain  current  levels  of  consumpCon  

Developing sustainably is possible

The  non-­‐linear  relaConship  between  energy  consumpCon  and  human  development  

From managing disasters to managing risks

Managing  risks  aligns  the  disaster  risk  reducCon,  climate  change  acCon  and  sustainable  development  agendas  

Understanding Risk: The Platforms

Understanding Risk: The Platforms

Seeing is believing

Thank  you  

#gar15