Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

THINK AGAIN: MEDIA+TECH 2014

Michael J. Wolf | @mjw

2

9 HOURS

2 HOURS

3 HOURS

7 HOURS

5 HOURS

3 1

HOURS

ATTENTION IS NOT A ZERO-SUM GAME

OTHER NIGHTTIME ACTIVITIES

SLEEP

MULTITASKED TV, DIGITAL AND OTHER MEDIA

MULTITASKED WORK WITH MEDIA

FOCUSED WORK

MULTITASKED AUDIO AND OTHER PASSIVE MEDIA

COMMUTING, MEALS, OTHER DAYTIME

DEDICATED TV

8 HOURS

2 HOURS

3 HOURS

7 HOURS

5 HOURS

3 HOURS

1 HOUR

1 HOUR

30 HOURS IN A 24 HOUR DAY

REALITY OF A TYPICAL PERSON IN THE U.S. AVERAGE DAY

ATTENTION 15 MINUTES AT A TIME

SLEEP

FOCUSED WORK

MULTITASKED WORK WITH MEDIA !COMMUTING, MEALS, OTHER DAYTIME !DEDICATED TV

MULTI-TASKED TV, DIGITAL AND OTHER MEDIA !MULTI-TASKED AUDIO AND OTHER PASSIVE MEDIA !OTHER NIGHTTIME ACTIVITIES

A TYPICAL 30 HOUR DAY: 120 15 MIN. MOMENTS

$2.6 $1.5 $9.0 $1.5

$1.0 $.7 $.5

BILLION DOLLARS ON LESS THAN FIVE MINUTESVALUATIONS IN BILLIONS

$.8 $.9

1 BILLION

1 BILLION

2 BILLION

1.7 BILLION

300 MILLION

WHO WILL SERVE THE NEXT 4 BILLION USERS?

THE NEXT FOUR BILLION?

1.2 BILLION

1.2 BILLION

2.3 BILLION

2 BILLION

350 MILLION

$360-$730/YR $1,500-$20,000/YR$730-$1,500/YRLESS THAN $360/YR > $20,000/YR

SUBSIDIZE ONBOARD OPTIMIZE

INTERNET ACCESS

REPLACEMENT CYCLE TRENDSHIGH

PRICE

LOW

REPLACEMENT CYCLESLOW FAST

SMART TVS

SMART- PHONES

PHABLETSDESKTOP

LAPTOP

TABLETS

GAMING CONSOLE

OPTIMIZE: REVENUE PER USER

MEDIA+TECH ARPUANNUAL ARPU COMPARISON ACROSS SUBSCRIPTIONS, COMMERCE, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT AND ADVERTISING

0111335556771415213434434653123147

257285307

633684

760

1227

13221405

1475

MEDIA+TECH ARPU: SUBSCRIPTIONS

0156123147

633684760

12271322

14051475

MEDIA+TECH ARPU: COMMERCE

1534

53

307

MEDIA+TECH ARPU: MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

11

5

14

21

34

MEDIA+TECH ARPU: ADVERTISING

335

77

46

MORE LAYERSTO BE A PLAYER

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SEARCHING FOR VR

OCULUS RIFT GOOGLE CARDBOARD

SONY MORPHEUS DAFT PUNK

MEDIA+TECH LAYERS

MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING

VIDEO CONTENT

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA

INTERNET OF THINGS

SEARCH

MARKETPLACE

DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND

CONNECTIVITY

OS

HARDWARE

PAYMENT

STORAGE

ADS/TECH

MEDIA+TECH CAPABILITIES MATRIX

MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

VIDEO CONTENT ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

INTERNET OF THINGS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

SEARCH ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

MARKETPLACE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND ✔ ✔ ✔

CONNECTIVITY ✔ ✔ ✔

OS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

HARDWARE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

PAYMENT ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

STORAGE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

ADS/TECH ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA ✔ ✔ ✔

WHAT’S NEXT?INDEPENDENT PLAYERS IN EACH LAYER

MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING

VIDEO CONTENT

INTERNET OF THINGS

SEARCH

MARKETPLACE

DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND

CONNECTIVITY

OS

HARDWARE

PAYMENT

STORAGE

ADS/TECH

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA

A NEW NETWORK IS EMERGING

THE QUANTIFIED HUMAN

THE QUANTIFIED WORLD

THE QUANTIFIED NETWORK

LESSONS FROM THE INTERNET FRIDGE

1999 2007 20112010 20242006 20082001

CONTENT MUST SERVETHE NEW REALITY OF ATTENTION

2013

2013

2014

SLIDESHOWS VINE MEMES INFOGRAPHICS

ANIMATED GIFS LISTICLES FUNNY FAKE REVIEWS SECRET

FAN CULTURE WILL BE AS IMPORTANT TO

ATTENTION AS SOCIAL

FAN CONTENT ALREADY DWARFS PROFESSIONAL CONTENTHOURS OF CONTENT

110 542,000

220 142,000

100 63,000

150 131,000

10 83,000

NETWORK LIBRARY FAN CREATED CONTENT

FIFTY SHADES OF GREY

35

90 52MILLION COPIES SOLD

LANGUAGES PUBLISHED

FASTEST-SELLING PAPERBACK OF ALL TIME

$

36

THANK YOU!

www.activate.com

@mjw