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THINK AGAIN: MEDIA+TECH 2014 Michael J. Wolf | @mjw

Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

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Trends in media and entertainment are causing us to wonder and to think again about the evolution of the media and tech ecosystem – and how media and tech businesses will grow their companies.

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Page 1: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

THINK AGAIN: MEDIA+TECH 2014

Michael J. Wolf | @mjw

Page 2: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

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Page 3: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

9 HOURS

2 HOURS

3 HOURS

7 HOURS

5 HOURS

3 1

HOURS

ATTENTION IS NOT A ZERO-SUM GAME

Page 4: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

OTHER NIGHTTIME ACTIVITIES

SLEEP

MULTITASKED TV, DIGITAL AND OTHER MEDIA

MULTITASKED WORK WITH MEDIA

FOCUSED WORK

MULTITASKED AUDIO AND OTHER PASSIVE MEDIA

COMMUTING, MEALS, OTHER DAYTIME

DEDICATED TV

8 HOURS

2 HOURS

3 HOURS

7 HOURS

5 HOURS

3 HOURS

1 HOUR

1 HOUR

30 HOURS IN A 24 HOUR DAY

REALITY OF A TYPICAL PERSON IN THE U.S. AVERAGE DAY

Page 5: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

ATTENTION 15 MINUTES AT A TIME

SLEEP

FOCUSED WORK

MULTITASKED WORK WITH MEDIA !COMMUTING, MEALS, OTHER DAYTIME !DEDICATED TV

MULTI-TASKED TV, DIGITAL AND OTHER MEDIA !MULTI-TASKED AUDIO AND OTHER PASSIVE MEDIA !OTHER NIGHTTIME ACTIVITIES

A TYPICAL 30 HOUR DAY: 120 15 MIN. MOMENTS

Page 6: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

$2.6 $1.5 $9.0 $1.5

$1.0 $.7 $.5

BILLION DOLLARS ON LESS THAN FIVE MINUTESVALUATIONS IN BILLIONS

$.8 $.9

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1 BILLION

1 BILLION

2 BILLION

1.7 BILLION

300 MILLION

WHO WILL SERVE THE NEXT 4 BILLION USERS?

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THE NEXT FOUR BILLION?

1.2 BILLION

1.2 BILLION

2.3 BILLION

2 BILLION

350 MILLION

$360-$730/YR $1,500-$20,000/YR$730-$1,500/YRLESS THAN $360/YR > $20,000/YR

SUBSIDIZE ONBOARD OPTIMIZE

INTERNET ACCESS

Page 11: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

REPLACEMENT CYCLE TRENDSHIGH

PRICE

LOW

REPLACEMENT CYCLESLOW FAST

SMART TVS

SMART- PHONES

PHABLETSDESKTOP

LAPTOP

TABLETS

GAMING CONSOLE

Page 12: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

OPTIMIZE: REVENUE PER USER

Page 13: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

MEDIA+TECH ARPUANNUAL ARPU COMPARISON ACROSS SUBSCRIPTIONS, COMMERCE, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT AND ADVERTISING

0111335556771415213434434653123147

257285307

633684

760

1227

13221405

1475

Page 14: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

MEDIA+TECH ARPU: SUBSCRIPTIONS

0156123147

633684760

12271322

14051475

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MEDIA+TECH ARPU: COMMERCE

1534

53

307

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MEDIA+TECH ARPU: MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT

11

5

14

21

34

Page 17: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

MEDIA+TECH ARPU: ADVERTISING

335

77

46

Page 18: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

MORE LAYERSTO BE A PLAYER

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ ✔ ✔

Page 19: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

SEARCHING FOR VR

OCULUS RIFT GOOGLE CARDBOARD

SONY MORPHEUS DAFT PUNK

Page 20: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

MEDIA+TECH LAYERS

MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING

VIDEO CONTENT

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA

INTERNET OF THINGS

SEARCH

MARKETPLACE

DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND

CONNECTIVITY

OS

HARDWARE

PAYMENT

STORAGE

ADS/TECH

Page 21: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

MEDIA+TECH CAPABILITIES MATRIX

MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

VIDEO CONTENT ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

INTERNET OF THINGS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

SEARCH ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

MARKETPLACE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND ✔ ✔ ✔

CONNECTIVITY ✔ ✔ ✔

OS ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

HARDWARE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

PAYMENT ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

STORAGE ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

ADS/TECH ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA ✔ ✔ ✔

Page 22: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

WHAT’S NEXT?INDEPENDENT PLAYERS IN EACH LAYER

MOBILE/VIDEO MESSAGING

VIDEO CONTENT

INTERNET OF THINGS

SEARCH

MARKETPLACE

DELIVERY SERVICE/ON-DEMAND

CONNECTIVITY

OS

HARDWARE

PAYMENT

STORAGE

ADS/TECH

BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE/BIG DATA

Page 23: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

A NEW NETWORK IS EMERGING

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THE QUANTIFIED HUMAN

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THE QUANTIFIED WORLD

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THE QUANTIFIED NETWORK

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LESSONS FROM THE INTERNET FRIDGE

1999 2007 20112010 20242006 20082001

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CONTENT MUST SERVETHE NEW REALITY OF ATTENTION

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2013

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2013

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2014

SLIDESHOWS VINE MEMES INFOGRAPHICS

ANIMATED GIFS LISTICLES FUNNY FAKE REVIEWS SECRET

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FAN CULTURE WILL BE AS IMPORTANT TO

ATTENTION AS SOCIAL

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FAN CONTENT ALREADY DWARFS PROFESSIONAL CONTENTHOURS OF CONTENT

110 542,000

220 142,000

100 63,000

150 131,000

10 83,000

NETWORK LIBRARY FAN CREATED CONTENT

Page 34: Think Again: Media + Tech 2014

FIFTY SHADES OF GREY

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90 52MILLION COPIES SOLD

LANGUAGES PUBLISHED

FASTEST-SELLING PAPERBACK OF ALL TIME

$

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THANK YOU!

www.activate.com

@mjw