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The Demographic Transition Model, developed by Warren Thompson (1929), posits a shift from an agricultural, rural economy to an industrialized, urban society. A characteristic of this shift is an intermediate period of rapid population growth during which slowly declining fertility rates lag behind rapidly declining mortality rates. This presentation will explore the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model, the relationship between economic development and population growth, as well as the potential issues and shortfalls when applying this classic model to today’s developing countries.
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Keene State Col lege
Human Cul tura l Mosaic
ISGEOG203 Fal l ‘09
Professor: Dr. Rydant
Created by: Apr i l Buzby
Supplemental Instructor
The Demographic Transition
2
Introduction
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization Commonly involves 4 stages An idealized picture of population change in a country.
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1875
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CBR CDR Population
Pre-Industrial Transitional Industrial Post-Industrial
3
Introduction
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Pyramid Shows the distribution population by age and sex A specific age group (i.e. ages 0-4) is called a cohort. Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably
different population pyramids
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
% Females
% Males
Percent (%)
Ag
e C
las
s
4
Stage 1: Pre-Industrial Period
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Crude Birth Rate: High
Crude Death Rate: High
Rate of Natural Increase: Fluctuating
Examples: Britain in the 17th and 18th century; some remote Amazon tribes
1600 1650 1700 1750
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
CDR CBR Population
5
Stage 1: Birth Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Birth Rate is high due to:
Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate Need for workers in
agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic
assets
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
6
Stage 1: Death Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Death Rate is high due to:
Disease Famine Lack of clean water and
sanitation Lack of health care War Limited food supply Lack of education
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
7
Stage 1: Population Change
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Change
Due to high birth and death rates, population is stable.
Population Growth Rate: ≤ 1%
Doubling Time: ~100 years
Series1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
8
Stage 1: Age Structure
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Pyramid Shape: Concave triangular
Age Structure of Population: Rapid fall in each age group due to high death rates Short life expectancy
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
% Females
% Males
Percent (%)
Age Class
9
Stage 2: Transitional Period
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Crude Birth Rate: High
Crude Death Rate: Decreasing
Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing
Examples: Britain late 18th Century to mid-19th Century, Kenya
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
CBR CDR Population
10
Stage 2: Birth Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Birth Rate remains high due to:
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 4.56 People are used to having
many children. Takes time for culture to change
Religious beliefs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
11
Stage 2: Death Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Death Rate decreasing due to:
Improved hygiene Improved sanitation Improved food production
and storage Improved transport for
food
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
12
Stage 2: Population Change
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Change
“Population Explosion" - gap between deaths and births grows wider.
England’s Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions.
LDC cause of today’s population explosion
Population Growth rate: 3%
Doubling Time: 18-20 years
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
13
Stage 2: Age Structure
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Pyramid Shape: Triangular
Age structure of Population: Growing young dependant population Increasingly youthful age structure Accelerating population growth
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
% Females
% Males
Percent (%)
Age Class
14
Stage 3: Industrial Period
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Crude Birth Rate: Decreasing
Crude Death Rate: Continues to decrease
Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing but at a slower rate
Examples: Britain early 20th century; Brazil; Mexico
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CBR CDR Population
15
Stage 3: Birth Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Birth Rate decreasing due to:
TFR: 2.05 Improvements in
contraceptive technology. Changes in values about
children and sex. Parents need fewer children. Rising costs of dependent
children to a family. Valuation of women beyond
motherhood. Working women have less
time to devote to child rearing. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
16
Stage 3: Death Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Death Rate low due to:
Better Health Care Vaccinations Better understanding
of the spread of diseases
Pre-natal care Improved sanitation
(i.e. indoor plumbing) Improved quality and
quantity of food
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
17
Stage 3: Population Change
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Change
Large 15-45 cohort equals continued population growth
Population Growth rate: ≤ 1%
Doubling Time: 65 years
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
18
Stage 3: Age Structure
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Pyramid Shape: Columnar
Age structure of Population: Decreasing TFR Bulge in the reproductive cohorts Narrowing pyramid base
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
% Females
% Males
Percent (%)
Age Class
19
Stage 4: Post-Industrial Period
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Crude Birth Rate: Low
Crude Death Rate: Low
Rate of Natural Increase: Stable
Examples: Britain late-20th century; Sweden; Japan
1975
1988
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
CBR CDR Population
20
Stage 4: Birth Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Birth Rate low due to:
TFR: 2.1 Family planning Good health Improved status of
women Later marriages
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
21
Stage 4: Death Rate
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Death Rate low due to:
Improved health care High quantity and quality
of food supply
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
22
Stage 4: Population Change
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Change
TFR falls to replacement fertility levels (2.1)
Zero Population Growth (ZPG) reached
Stable but high population size
Population Growth rate: >1%
Doubling Time: ~1000 years
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
23
Stage 4: Age Structure
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Population Pyramid Shape: Inverted
Age structure of Population: Characterized by stability. Age structure becomes older.
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
% Females
% Males
Percent (%)
Age Class
24
A Fifth Stage?
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
The original Demographic Transition Model has just four stages; however in some cases the fertility rate falls well below replacement level and population decline sets in rapidly. It is theorized that a fifth stage is necessary to account for this demographic stage.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
CBR CDR Population
Example: RomaniaCBR: 10.53CDR: 11.88TFR: 1.39Population Growth : -0.147%
25
Modern Applicability
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Generalization from European experience
Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth
Assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate.
Assumes that countries will go through all the stages.
Some countries may skip stages.
Does not account for migration.
Does not take into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women.
Some countries are in a demographic trap and can not progress
26
The Human Development Index and the DTM
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Fertility declines at low and medium Human Development Index (HDI) levels
Theorizes that advanced HDI promotes a rebound in fertility. In many countries with very high levels of development (around 0.95)
fertility rates are now approaching two children per woman.
Example: Netherlands
CBR: 12
CDR: 9
TFR: 1.7
Population Growth : 0.7
HDI: 0.953 (9th)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
CBR CDR Population
27
Conclusion
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
Represents a nation’s transition through industrialization Commonly involves 4 stages An idealized picture of population change in a country. Used to indicate future birth rates, death rates , and the population size
of developing countries Generalization from European experience Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and
increased wealth Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably
different population pyramids
28
Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the annual number of live births per 1000 people.
Crude Death Rate (CDR): the annual number of deaths per 1000 people.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the annual number of live births per woman from age 15 to 49 years old.
Infant Mortality Rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births.
Life Expectancy: number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels.
Rate of Natural Increase: the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the year found through the equation birth rate (b) – death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r).
Doubling Time: the number of years it will take to double the present population given its current rate of population growth.
Replacement Fertility: the level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population.
Population Momentum: the tendency of population growth to continue after the TFR achieves replacement fertility levels.
Glossary
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
29
Sources
April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009
CIA World Factbook
Domosh , M., Neumann, R.P., Price, P.L., Jodan-Bychkov, T.G., (2009). The human mosaic, eleventh edition.
Montgomery, Keith. The demographic transition
Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H-P., and Billari, F. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741-743 (6 August 2009).
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. International Data Base (IDB).
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human Development Reports.
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