Upload
juniper-wilson
View
229
Download
5
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Demographic Transition Demographic Transition ModelModel
Stages of the Demographic Stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)Transition Model (DTM)
Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Modela theory to explain human population a theory to explain human population
changechangebased on ●idea that all societies want to transition from pre-modern to postmodern●experience of richer, fully developed states (Europe, US, Australia…)
Important Demographic Important Demographic WordsWords
Demographic- statistical Demographic- statistical characteristics of a populationcharacteristics of a population
Birth rate- childbirths per 1,000 Birth rate- childbirths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 14people per year Ex. US- 14
Death rate- deaths per 1,000 people Death rate- deaths per 1,000 people per year Ex. US- 8per year Ex. US- 8
Infant mortality rate- number of Infant mortality rate- number of babies who die before the age of 1 babies who die before the age of 1 per 1,000 per year Ex. US- 6.5per 1,000 per year Ex. US- 6.5
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)- the average Total Fertility Rate (TFR)- the average number of children that would be born to number of children that would be born to a woman during her child bearing years a woman during her child bearing years Ex. US- 2.1Ex. US- 2.1
Replacement Rate- number of children a Replacement Rate- number of children a women needs to have to replace the women needs to have to replace the current population- 2.1. Not 2 to account current population- 2.1. Not 2 to account for deaths. Lesser developed countries for deaths. Lesser developed countries have a higher Replacement Rate.have a higher Replacement Rate.
Life Expectancy- average number of Life Expectancy- average number of years that people live. Ex. US- males- 75; years that people live. Ex. US- males- 75; females- 80females- 80
Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids
Stage 1Stage 1
Stage 1: Low GrowthStage 1: Low Growth– Pre-industrial societiesPre-industrial societies– Much human sufferingMuch human suffering
Birth rate high Birth rate high death rates highdeath rates high Why?Why?
– Epidemics, plagues, famines Epidemics, plagues, famines and wars and wars
– High IMRHigh IMR– Cost of raising a child = low Cost of raising a child = low – Children are “insurance” for Children are “insurance” for
parents in their old ageparents in their old age
Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 11
No StatesNo States Some Some
isolated isolated populations, populations, such as such as rainforest rainforest tribestribes
StageStage 2 2
Stage 2: High GrowthStage 2: High Growth
Death rates decline, but birth rates remain Death rates decline, but birth rates remain high high population explosion population explosion
Why?Why?– Improved sanitationImproved sanitation– Greater food supply b/cGreater food supply b/c
of improvements in of improvements in agriculture (crop rotation)agriculture (crop rotation)
– Europe – agricultural Europe – agricultural revolution revolution industrial industrial revolution revolution
Can lead to migration Can lead to migration
Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 22
Ex: Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Laos, Ex: Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Laos, most of Sub-Saharan Africa, states in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, states in Central AmericaCentral America
Discuss 2 things that you Discuss 2 things that you learned or found learned or found
interesting about interesting about STAGE STAGE 1 or 2 of the DTM1 or 2 of the DTM!!
Cloud=File info into your brain! Words with Friends=
Work with a partner
Stage 3Stage 3
Stage 3: Moderate GrowthStage 3: Moderate Growth
Significant decline in Significant decline in birth ratesbirth rates
Need for childrenNeed for children UrbanizationUrbanization Education Education Child labor Child labor Contraception useContraception use Women’s rightsWomen’s rights
Family planning clinic in Kuala Terenganu, Malaysia
Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 33
Ex: India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Ex: India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Costa Rica, NicaraguaNicaragua
Stage 4Stage 4
Stage 4: Low to Zero Stage 4: Low to Zero GrowthGrowth
Birth & death rates Birth & death rates lowlow
Stable (but high) Stable (but high) populationpopulation
TFR TFR ≤ 2.5≤ 2.5 Can include baby Can include baby
boomsbooms Birth rates lowest Birth rates lowest
where women are where women are most involved in most involved in workforceworkforce
Beach in the Netherlands – few children
Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 44
Ex: US, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, Ex: US, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, most of Europe, Sri Lanka, Iran, ChinaIran, China
Stage 5: Negative GrowthStage 5: Negative Growth Not part of original Not part of original
DTMDTM Death rates higher Death rates higher
than birth ratesthan birth rates Declining Declining
populationpopulation TFR TFR ≤ 2.1≤ 2.1 High life expectancy High life expectancy
and low labor forceand low labor force In developed In developed
countriescountriesJapan’s aging population presents different population problems
Population Pyramid – Stage Population Pyramid – Stage 55
Ex: Japan, Hong Kong, many East European Ex: Japan, Hong Kong, many East European and East Asian countriesand East Asian countries
Discuss how population Discuss how population changes as countries changes as countries
become more developed. become more developed. Are the changes positive or Are the changes positive or
negative? Why?negative? Why?
Cloud=File info into your brain! Words with Friends=
Work with a partner