Is it a crime to estimate - #RSGECU2015

Is it a crime to#estimate? @JulianoRibeiro

Academics

• Software developer since 1994

• Graduated in Systems to Internet

• Post graduation in OOP with Java

• Certified Scrum Professional by Scrum Alliance

• Certified Delphi Developer by Embarcadero

More about me

• Agile Methods Teacher at Faculdade Cidade Verde

• Agile Coach at Objective Solutions

• Organizer of Agile Tour since 2011• 2014 in Sao Paulo, Maringa, Cascavel, Brasilia, Campinas

and Curitiba

• Regular speaker at main conferences in Brazil• Agile Brazil, Agile Trends, The Developers Conference,

DevInSantos, DevCamp, Linguágil...

Estimates Sucks

define:estimate

• es.ti.ma.te

• es·ti·mat·ed, es·ti·mat·ing, es·ti·mates

• To calculate approximately (the amount, extent, magnitude, position, or value of something).• A tentative evaluation or rough calculation, as of worth,

quantity, or size: an estimate of the damage caused by the storm.

• A statement of the approximate cost of work to be done, such as a building project or car repairs.

approximately...

Natural born imprecise

It’s onlya guess

Vilains

#NoEstimates

#NOESTIMATES

Woody Zuill first wrote this hashtag on twitter

He said it was an invitation, a challenge, not that you literally should not estimate at all!

This isn’twhat wedo!

Less waste

Understand your system

Complexsystems

Complicatedsystems

Chaoticsystems

Simplesystems

disorder

Accept the variability

Focus on work

Understand that:Estimates are notdeadlines!

#EstimatesBut with inteligence

Why we do estimates?

• To plan

• To have a schedule

• To alocate resources

• To alocate money

Actual estimation process

Function points

Planning poker

Story points / T-Shirt sizing

Lead / Cicle time

Planning Poker

Lead/Cicle time

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Analisys

Duração Qtde %

1 2 6,7%

90,1%

2 8 26,7%

3 6 20,0%

4 5 16,7%

5 6 20,0%

6 1 3,3%

7 1 3,3%

8 0 0,0%

9 1 3,3%

10 0 0,0%

30 100%

Onereal case...

Initial State

Scrum Complete and “by the book”

Planning with estimatives

Review with validation

How it was

Sprints failing…

Focus on delivery instead of quality

Several user stories almost accepted

Costumer unhappy

And also the team

The changes

Continuous delivery

Changing on commitment

Planning Refinement

Review Continuous feedback

Results

All user stories now are delivered between 3 and 5 days

And so, this team don’t estimate any more

#NoEstimates only works if

…is that it is possible to do small chunks of work incrementally, leading as rapidly as possible to a

desired shippable product, and that when you do that there is no need to do much of anything in the

way of estimating stories or the project.

Ron Jeffries

Obrigado

@JulianoRibeiro

juliano.ribeiro@objective.com.br

www.julianoribeiro.com

References

http://xprogramming.com/articles/the-noestimates-movement/

http://www.akitaonrails.com/2013/04/05/traducao-estimativa-o-melhor-que-podemos-fazer#.U9qlDvldV8E

http://www.akitaonrails.com/2013/10/07/off-topic-noestimates-debunked#.U9qgjfldV8E

http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/2013/05/13/my-customers-need-estimates-what-do-i-do/

http://agileatlas.org/images/uploads/Agile_Atlas_-_pt-br.pdf

https://www.scrum.org/Portals/0/Documents/Scrum%20Guides/2013/Scrum-Guide-Portuguese-BR.pdf

http://xprogramming.com/what-is-extreme-programming/

http://www.amazon.com.br/Kanban-English-David-J-Anderson-ebook/dp/B0057H2M70