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Is it a crime to#estimate? @JulianoRibeiro
Academics
• Software developer since 1994
• Graduated in Systems to Internet
• Post graduation in OOP with Java
• Certified Scrum Professional by Scrum Alliance
• Certified Delphi Developer by Embarcadero
More about me
• Agile Methods Teacher at Faculdade Cidade Verde
• Agile Coach at Objective Solutions
• Organizer of Agile Tour since 2011• 2014 in Sao Paulo, Maringa, Cascavel, Brasilia, Campinas
and Curitiba
• Regular speaker at main conferences in Brazil• Agile Brazil, Agile Trends, The Developers Conference,
DevInSantos, DevCamp, Linguágil...
Estimates Sucks
define:estimate
• es.ti.ma.te
• es·ti·mat·ed, es·ti·mat·ing, es·ti·mates
• To calculate approximately (the amount, extent, magnitude, position, or value of something).• A tentative evaluation or rough calculation, as of worth,
quantity, or size: an estimate of the damage caused by the storm.
• A statement of the approximate cost of work to be done, such as a building project or car repairs.
approximately...
Natural born imprecise
It’s onlya guess
Vilains
#NoEstimates
#NOESTIMATES
Woody Zuill first wrote this hashtag on twitter
He said it was an invitation, a challenge, not that you literally should not estimate at all!
This isn’twhat wedo!
Less waste
Understand your system
Complexsystems
Complicatedsystems
Chaoticsystems
Simplesystems
disorder
Accept the variability
Focus on work
Understand that:Estimates are notdeadlines!
#EstimatesBut with inteligence
Why we do estimates?
• To plan
• To have a schedule
• To alocate resources
• To alocate money
Actual estimation process
Function points
Planning poker
Story points / T-Shirt sizing
Lead / Cicle time
Planning Poker
Lead/Cicle time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Analisys
Duração Qtde %
1 2 6,7%
90,1%
2 8 26,7%
3 6 20,0%
4 5 16,7%
5 6 20,0%
6 1 3,3%
7 1 3,3%
8 0 0,0%
9 1 3,3%
10 0 0,0%
30 100%
Onereal case...
Initial State
Scrum Complete and “by the book”
Planning with estimatives
Review with validation
How it was
Sprints failing…
Focus on delivery instead of quality
Several user stories almost accepted
Costumer unhappy
And also the team
The changes
Continuous delivery
Changing on commitment
Planning Refinement
Review Continuous feedback
Results
All user stories now are delivered between 3 and 5 days
And so, this team don’t estimate any more
#NoEstimates only works if
…is that it is possible to do small chunks of work incrementally, leading as rapidly as possible to a
desired shippable product, and that when you do that there is no need to do much of anything in the
way of estimating stories or the project.
Ron Jeffries
References
http://xprogramming.com/articles/the-noestimates-movement/
http://www.akitaonrails.com/2013/04/05/traducao-estimativa-o-melhor-que-podemos-fazer#.U9qlDvldV8E
http://www.akitaonrails.com/2013/10/07/off-topic-noestimates-debunked#.U9qgjfldV8E
http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/2013/05/13/my-customers-need-estimates-what-do-i-do/
http://agileatlas.org/images/uploads/Agile_Atlas_-_pt-br.pdf
https://www.scrum.org/Portals/0/Documents/Scrum%20Guides/2013/Scrum-Guide-Portuguese-BR.pdf
http://xprogramming.com/what-is-extreme-programming/
http://www.amazon.com.br/Kanban-English-David-J-Anderson-ebook/dp/B0057H2M70
