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U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Another month of growth brings year-
to-date totals back to normal
U.S. employment situation: July 2016 August 5, 2016
July 2016 employment summary
• For the second consecutive month, job growth was at healthy levels
- The U.S. economy saw the addition of 255,000 net new jobs in July, the second consecutive month of healthy additions after a volatile first
quarter and next to no growth in May. This was bolstered by upward revisions in the past three months, bringing year-to-date job growth
near 2015 levels.
- Of note in July was PBS’ resurgence, adding 70,000 new jobs over the course of the month and doing so far faster than any other sector.
Throughout late 2015 and late 2016, PBS began to register slower growth compared to health, leisure and retail trade, while the office-
using sectors in general have become more volatile.
• Wages across industries are rising as talent shortages exist in most geographies
- Average weekly wages continue to rise at a clip of 2.6 percent annually, more than double inflation at 1.0 percent. Broken down by
industry, a mix of office-using and non-office sectors (information, leisure, manufacturing, construction and financial activities) have posted
wage growth exceeding 3.0 percent, which will boost disposable income and, in turn, personal consumption that drives GDP.
- Employers are competing for talent more than at any point in the cycle as unemployment sits at 4.9 percent nationally and below 4.0
percent in many major geographies. Separations are also rising as employees become more confident with job prospects: quits are up 6.0
percent year-over-year.
• External shocks are still on the periphery
- Although the global economy continues to suffer from increasing levels of uncertainty and growth forecasts and sentiment have been
reduced due to slowdowns in commodity-rich markets, interest rate cuts in the UK and a broader pause in global trade, the U.S. economy
is largely insulated from these external risks and will therefore see sustained job growth throughout the remainder of the year.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
July 2016 U.S. labor market at a glance
+255,000(70 consecutive months
of growth)1-month net change
+2,447,000(+1.7% y-o-y)
12-month change
+779,00010-year average annual growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.9%Unemployment rate
-40bp12-month change in unemployment
62.8%Labor force participation rate
5,500,000(+2.7% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,036,000(-0.5% y-o-y)
Hires
2,895,000(+6.0% y-o-y)
Quits
3
A healthy 255,000 new jobs in July combined with upward
revisions are helping 2016 near YTD 2015 job growth
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
0011
0,00
088
,000 10
6,00
012
2,00
022
1,00
018
3,00
016
4,00
0 196,
000
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
0011
0,00
088
,000
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
084
,000
166,
000
188,
000 22
5,00
033
0,00
023
6,00
028
6,00
024
9,00
021
3,00
0 250,
000
221,
000
423,
000
329,
000
221,
000 26
5,00
084
,000
251,
000
273,
000
228,
000
277,
000
150,
000
149,
000
295,
000
280,
000
262,
000
168,
000
233,
000
186,
000
277,
000
24,0
0029
2,00
025
5,00
0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
4
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment remained stable at 4.9 percent as the labor
force participation rate rose and the workforce expanded
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Job openings dropped slightly in July to 5.5 million, but are
still rising at an annual rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Job
open
ings
(th
ousa
nds)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Con
sum
er c
onfid
ence
Inde
xConsumer confidence continues to show no movement at 97.3
points in July
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
7
With wage and CPI growth at 2.6 and 1.0 percent, respectively,
in recent months, employees are seeing meaningful gains
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI data as of March 2016
8
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e
Hourly wage growth CPI growth
1.6%
1.9%
2.3%
2.5%
2.6%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.0%
4.6%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Education and health
Other services
Mining and logging
Trade, transportation and utilities
Professional and business services
Financial activities
Construction
Manufacturing
Leisure and hospitality
Information
12-month % change in wages
Competition for talent in industries is enabling wage growth in
excess of 3.0 percent over the year
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red
9
-7.0
-2.0
0.0
0.7
1.7
3.0
6.7
9.0
11.0
11.7
14.0
14.7
17.0
18.0
36.0
38.0
45.0
48.8
70.0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Mining and logging
Nondurable goods
Information
Utilities
Wholesale trade
Other services
Motor vehicles and parts
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Construction
Retail trade
Temporary help services
Financial activities
Education and health services
Government
Leisure and hospitality
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
After months of slower-than-average increases, PBS roared
back in July with 70,000 new jobs
10
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-130.0
-65.0
-31.0
5.9
26.7
27.0
34.0
38.4
46.1
54.6
60.0
154.0
162.0
215.0
289.3
421.0
550.0
576.8
639.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Information
Nondurable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale trade
Temporary help services
Other services
Government
Financial activities
Construction
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
639.0
550.0
421.0
289.3
162.0
385.7
Education and health PBS
Leisure and hospitality Retail trade
Financial activities Manufacturing
All other jobs
Over the course of 2016, annual levels of growth have yet to
budge and composition remains consistent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Core subsectors added 84.2 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
for
bach
elor
’s d
egre
e ho
lder
s (%
)White-collar unemployment shows little sign of going below
what is likely its cyclical low of 2.5 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Office-using industries continue to show volatility, but are
currently posting strongest growth year-to-date
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
Energy is landing after a sharp downturn throughout 2015, with
year-over-year contractions softening to 7.3 percent
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2015.
14
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
Initial claims remain below the 265,000-barrier mark on a
weekly basis, on par with previous cycle’s low
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
15
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Hire
s an
d qu
its (
thou
sand
s)
Hires Quits
Although both hires and quits declined subtly in July, neither
did to the same degree as job openings
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Month after month, tech and Sun Belt markets continue to
surpass the national rate of job growth by more than 150bp
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
Dallas
3.3%
Austin
4.0%
Silicon Valley
3.9%
Seattle-
Bellevue
3.5%
Phoenix
3.6%
Orlando
4.5%
As with the official unemployment rate, total unemployment is
beginning to reach its trough at 9.7 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Tot
al u
nem
ploy
men
t (%
)
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
Another month of increase for the labor force (+407,000
people) pushed up the participation rate to 62.8 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n ra
te (
%)
©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
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