April 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

Job creation remains steady, but

industry performance is varied

U.S. employment situation: March 2016 April 1, 2016

March 2016 employment summary

• Job creation returned to normal levels, but subsector growth is varied

- March employment growth was slightly lower than February, but still strong with 215,000 net new jobs.

- Unemployment ticked up slightly to 5.0 percent as labor force participation rose to 63.0 percent.

- At the subsector level, goods-producing segments such as manufacturing fell into contractionary mode, while education, health and retail

continue to surpass professional and business services (PBS).

• Secondary geographies are surpassing primary ones in terms of growth

- Over the past year, secondary markets such as Austin, Charlotte, Nashville, Orlando and Raleigh-Durham continued to grow faster than

most primary markets.

- Some primary markets, particularly in the Bay Area, Pacific Northwest and South, continue to exceed the U.S. average, but have slowed

into the 2.5-3.5-percent range as earlier gains become increasingly unsustainable.

• Numerous indicators are uncertain and wobbling

- Consumer confidence has hovered around the 95-point mark, but is slightly below the cyclical high of 103.8 points achieved in early 2015.

- Initial unemployment claims have begun to fall again after an uptick in late 2015, but may not be able to drop much more in the coming

months.

- At the industry level, tech is holding steady at 5.5 percent, below the consistent 6.0+ percent growth seen in 2014 and 2015 and will likely

remain at this level throughout the rest of the year as talent shortages become more visible.

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

March 2016 labor market at a glance

+215,000(66 consecutive months

of growth)1-month net change

+2,802,000(+1.9% y-o-y)

12-month change

+778,00010-year average annual growth


5.0%Unemployment rate

-50bp12-month change in unemployment

63.0%Labor force participation rate

5,541,000(+3.7% y-o-y)

Job openings

5,029,000(+3.5% y-o-y)

Hires

2,804,000(+2.0% y-o-y)

Quits

Job creation in March remained above the 200,000 threshold,

picking up from the partial slowdown in mid-2015

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

0011

0,00

088

,000 10

6,00

012

2,00

022

1,00

018

3,00

016

4,00

0 196,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

0011

0,00

088

,000

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

084

,000

166,

000

188,

000 22

5,00

033

0,00

023

6,00

028

6,00

024

9,00

021

3,00

0 250,

000

221,

000

423,

000

329,

000

221,

000 26

5,00

084

,000

251,

000

273,

000

228,

000

277,

000

150,

000

149,

000

295,

000

280,

000

262,

000

168,

000

245,

000

215,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

4


Unemployment bumped back to 5.0 percent as labor force

participation rose once again in March

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


5

Companies are actively seeking talent, pushing job openings

to more than 5.5 million


6

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

xConsumer confidence continues to wobble, hovering around

the 95-point mark


7

Despite a jump in the consumer price index, wage growth

continues to exceed inflation


8

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e

Hourly wage growth CPI growth

-29.0

-24.0

-12.0

-5.0

-2.5

-1.5

0.0

1.0

4.0

5.5

8.0

15.0

20.0

33.0

37.0

40.0

44.0

47.7

51.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

Manufacturing

Durable goods

Mining and logging

Nondurable goods

Transportation and warehousing

Motor vehicles and parts

Utilities

Information

Temporary help services

Wholesale trade

Other services

Financial activities

Government

Professional and business services

Construction

Leisure and hospitality

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Education and health services

1-month net change (thousands)

Growth was divided in March, with pronounced drops in

goods-producing industries


9

Education and health

Retail trade


All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

64.5 percent of

monthly

growth.

-139.0

-68.0

-27.0

10.4

20.5

39.0

41.0

52.8

57.5

72.2

74.0

121.0

145.0

301.0

377.7

472.0

606.0

646.9

711.0

-200 0 200 400 600 800

Mining and logging

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Utilities

Motor vehicles and parts

Information

Nondurable goods

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale trade

Temporary help services

Other services

Government


Construction

Retail trade


Professional and business services

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

12-month net change (thousands)

Education and health

PBS


Retail trade


Manufacturing

All other jobs

Education and health continues to grow its lead over PBS in

annual terms


10

Core subsectors added 82.5 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Unemployment for bachelor’s-degree holders ticked up by

10bp to 2.6 percent, but remains near natural low


11

Office-using growth continues its slowing path, although it

remains in growth mode

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Information Professional and business services Financial activities


12

Tech remained below 6.0-percent as talent shortage makes

sustained growth difficult

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through January 2015.

13

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Energy back to a 7.1-percent contraction and still shedding jobs

at an accelerated rate Year-on-year percent employment growth


14

After a bump in late 2015 and January 2016, initial claims are

falling once again

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

15

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Hire

s an

d qu

its (

thou

sand

s)

Hires Quits

Both hires and quits dropped slightly in March, but are still

trending upward


Secondary Sun Belt markets are the leader in metro area job

creation


17

San

Francisco

4.3%

Austin

4.7% Orlando

4.9%

Raleigh-

Durham

4.2%Nashville

4.0%

0.6%

1.4%

1.5%

2.1%

2.2%

2.3%

2.7%

2.9%

3.0%

3.4%

3.5%

4.3%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%

Houston

Boston

Chicago

Philadelphia

Los Angeles

Washington, DC

New York

South Florida

Seattle

Dallas

Atlanta

San Francisco

12-month % change

Major market is beginning to slow slightly as previous levels

of growth become more difficult to sustain


18

As with the official unemployment rate, total unemployment

increased by 10 basis points in March; now at 9.8 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


19

The labor force participation rate rose moderately to 62.9

percent, offsetting potential declines in unemployment


20

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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Economy & Finance

April 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook