2014.4.8 chartbook template

Weekly Chart BookMarch 28, 2014

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

Financial Conditions

4

Developed Markets

5

Emerging Markets

6

US Financial Conditions vs. 52 weeks & 2000-2007 Period

7

1 Year Default Probability – Developed Markets

8

1 Year Default Probability – Emerging Markets

9

5 Year CDS

10

SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Overnight Lending Rate)

11

The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

12

Global Financial Stress Index (Higher = More Stress)

13

Citi Macro Risk Index

14

AAII Bullishness Index - % Bullish

15

StateStreet Investor Confidence Index

16

S&P 500 & Advance-Decline Index

17

S&P 500 – This Week

Fixed Income & Credit

19

US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

20

UST Curve vs. US Investment Grade Curve

21

U.S. Treasury 30 Year Yield

22

U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

23

U.S. 10 Year Yield vs. Japanese Yen

24

U.S. Treasury 2s10s Yield Curve Slope

25

Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

26

Investment Grade Bond Prices

27

Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

28

High Yield Bond Prices

29

High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

30

Emerging Market Debt (USD Denominated)

31

Emerging Market Bond Spreads

Global Equities

33

World Equity Indices

34

MSCI All Country World Index

35

S&P 500 Index

36

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

37

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

38

Equity Risk Premiums by Country

39

Sector Performance (YTD)

40

Sector Performance by Region (YTD)

The Economy

42

Last week’s Economic Calendar

43

Next week’s Economic Calendar

44

Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

45

Economic Trends – National Accounts

46

Economic Trends – Economic Activity

47

Economic Trends – Business Conditions

48

Economic Trends – Credit Conditions

49

Economic Trends – Credit Conditions

50

Economic Trends – Leading Indicators

51

Economic Trends – Housing Market

52

Economic Trends – Housing Market

53

Economic Trends – Retail Sector

54

Economic Trends – Personal Sector

Currencies & Commodities

56

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

57

Carry Trades vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Carry Returns)

58

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q2 2014)

59

Currency Implied Volatility

60

US Dollar Index

61

Euro €

62

Japanese Yen ¥

63

Chinese Renminbi

64

Mexican Peso

65

Turkish Lira

66

Russian Ruble

67

Indian Rupee

68

Global Commodity Prices

69

Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

70

Gold Prices – 5 Years

71

Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

72

Copper Prices – 5 Years

Investment Themes & Value

74

Industry - Valuations

75

Technology

76

U.S. Financials Services

77

Goldcorp

78

Yamana

79

Gold to Gold Miners Ratio

80

Energy Exploration & Production

81

WTI – Brent Crude Oil Spread

82

High Yield Bonds

83

HYLD – Holdings

84

U.S. Dollar – Bullish