83
Weekly Chart Book March 28, 2014 Global ClientsGlobal Portfolios disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

2014.4.8 chartbook template

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

Weekly Chart BookMarch 28, 2014

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

Page 2: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

Financial Conditions

Page 3: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

4

Developed Markets

Page 4: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

5

Emerging Markets

Page 5: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

6

US Financial Conditions vs. 52 weeks & 2000-2007 Period

Page 6: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

7

1 Year Default Probability – Developed Markets

Page 7: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

8

1 Year Default Probability – Emerging Markets

Page 8: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

9

5 Year CDS

Page 9: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

10

SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Overnight Lending Rate)

Page 10: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

11

The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

Page 11: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

12

Global Financial Stress Index (Higher = More Stress)

Page 12: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

13

Citi Macro Risk Index

Page 13: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

14

AAII Bullishness Index - % Bullish

Page 14: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

15

StateStreet Investor Confidence Index

Page 15: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

16

S&P 500 & Advance-Decline Index

Page 16: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

17

S&P 500 – This Week

Page 17: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

Fixed Income & Credit

Page 18: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

19

US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

Page 19: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

20

UST Curve vs. US Investment Grade Curve

Page 20: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

21

U.S. Treasury 30 Year Yield

Page 21: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

22

U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

Page 22: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

23

U.S. 10 Year Yield vs. Japanese Yen

Page 23: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

24

U.S. Treasury 2s10s Yield Curve Slope

Page 24: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

25

Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

Page 25: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

26

Investment Grade Bond Prices

Page 26: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

27

Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

Page 27: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

28

High Yield Bond Prices

Page 28: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

29

High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

Page 29: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

30

Emerging Market Debt (USD Denominated)

Page 30: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

31

Emerging Market Bond Spreads

Page 31: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

Global Equities

Page 32: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

33

World Equity Indices

Page 33: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

34

MSCI All Country World Index

Page 34: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

35

S&P 500 Index

Page 35: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

36

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

Page 36: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

37

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Page 37: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

38

Equity Risk Premiums by Country

Page 38: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

39

Sector Performance (YTD)

Page 39: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

40

Sector Performance by Region (YTD)

Page 40: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

The Economy

Page 41: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

42

Last week’s Economic Calendar

Page 42: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

43

Next week’s Economic Calendar

Page 43: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

44

Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

Page 44: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

45

Economic Trends – National Accounts

Page 45: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

46

Economic Trends – Economic Activity

Page 46: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

47

Economic Trends – Business Conditions

Page 47: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

48

Economic Trends – Credit Conditions

Page 48: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

49

Economic Trends – Credit Conditions

Page 49: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

50

Economic Trends – Leading Indicators

Page 50: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

51

Economic Trends – Housing Market

Page 51: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

52

Economic Trends – Housing Market

Page 52: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

53

Economic Trends – Retail Sector

Page 53: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

54

Economic Trends – Personal Sector

Page 54: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

Currencies & Commodities

Page 55: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

56

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

Page 56: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

57

Carry Trades vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Carry Returns)

Page 57: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

58

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q2 2014)

Page 58: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

59

Currency Implied Volatility

Page 59: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

60

US Dollar Index

Page 60: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

61

Euro €

Page 61: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

62

Japanese Yen ¥

Page 62: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

63

Chinese Renminbi

Page 63: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

64

Mexican Peso

Page 64: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

65

Turkish Lira

Page 65: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

66

Russian Ruble

Page 66: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

67

Indian Rupee

Page 67: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

68

Global Commodity Prices

Page 68: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

69

Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

Page 69: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

70

Gold Prices – 5 Years

Page 70: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

71

Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

Page 71: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

72

Copper Prices – 5 Years

Page 72: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

Investment Themes & Value

Page 73: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

74

Industry - Valuations

Page 74: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

75

Technology

Page 75: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

76

U.S. Financials Services

Page 76: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

77

Goldcorp

Page 77: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

78

Yamana

Page 78: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

79

Gold to Gold Miners Ratio

Page 79: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

80

Energy Exploration & Production

Page 80: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

81

WTI – Brent Crude Oil Spread

Page 81: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

82

High Yield Bonds

Page 82: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

83

HYLD – Holdings

Page 83: 2014.4.8 chartbook template

84

U.S. Dollar – Bullish